Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Typhoon Tip]

18 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS with a transfer off OBX

impressive compared to the utterly non-existence portrayed by the gefs ...

this below is a 972 low tucked into the bite region of ny, with a ton of cold air over alb-lower 'hampshire ... it's probably mix contention eventually but this probably is a lot of snow/wind prior...

[MJO812]

AI eps doesn't look bad. Alot of members just like the regular eps.

[ORH_wxman]

Here’s 168. Again, can’t really ask for a lot more on a D7 prog. 
 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Serviceable.  

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

impressive compared to the utterly non-existence portrayed by the gefs ...

this below is a 972 low tucked into the bite region of ny, with a ton of cold air over alb-lower 'hampshire ... it's probably mix contention eventually but this probably is a lot of snow/wind prior...

idk, I thought this was a pretty solid signal from the usually progressive GEFS

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s 168. Again, can’t really ask for a lot more on a D7 prog. 
 

So that would mean this would get going on Friday. We’re getting into the medium term here. Interesting to see if the timeline of the 20th and 21st it’s consistent across other models. We were talking to 22nd yesterday I believe.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

idk, I thought this was a pretty solid signal from the usually progressive GEFS

i know what you're saying ...

i'm not talking about the concept of being in a good position at this far out in time...

i'm just comparing the eps ens that i provided above, to that scalar gefs...   the latter is clear whiff as is.   the comparison is interesting

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

impressive compared to the utterly non-existence portrayed by the gefs ...

this below is a 972 low tucked into the bite region of ny, with a ton of cold air over alb-lower 'hampshire ... it's probably mix contention eventually but this probably is a lot of snow/wind prior...

Yack....the mean is that far west? I wouldn't have guessed that...

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

So that would mean this would get going on Friday. We’re getting into the medium term here. Interesting to see if the timeline of the 20th and 21st it’s consistent across other models. We were talking to 22nd yesterday I believe.

EPS has been speeding up the second wave a bit more because it’s weaker on the first wave than a lot of other guidance. Esp the GFS suite which is slower. But regardless of whether it’s the 21st or the 22nd, we’d rather have the second wave be the main player because it has a deeper cold airmass in place and also a more poleward PNA ridge so it has higher end potential from a pure cyclogensis standpoint. 
 

The ceiling on the first wave is a lot lower. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yack....the mean is that far west? I wouldn't have guessed that...

No that’s just one member. I posted the mean at 168 below his post. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here’s 168. Again, can’t really ask for a lot more on a D7 prog. 
 

there's a subtly there that is important imo

the strongest solutions are biased on the left side of that 'inner spread' region.   i'm pretty sure those members, vs the outer/weaker ones ..., are in conflict over the degree of deep layer meridian character there is to the circulation mode at this time.

 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

there's a subtly there that is important imo

the strongest solutions are biased on the left side of that 'inner spread' region.   i'm pretty sure those members, vs the outer/weaker ones ..., are in conflict over the degree of deep layer meridian character there is to the circulation mode at this time.

 

Yeah agreed. The more amplified solutions are all bombing this thing out into the 980s (and even 970s on the next frame…a couple of them due east of BOS.)

I think this definitely speaks to the “higher end potential” was I just talking about to Mark. If this amplifies enough to hit us, it’s likely to be a pretty strong system. Hopefully not too strong and too far west…lol. 

[CoastalWx]

I’ll take the 983 and 985 off ACK.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

No that’s just one member. I posted the mean at 168 below his post. 

yeah, i'd stick with the multi member plots, Ray -

[weathafella]

I can kill this by starting the snowblower as a test…but I try to be kind so I wont.

[brooklynwx99]

this also seems like a snow or bust kind of setup as long as SLP isn’t overhead or east. should get a nice HP filtering in 

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I can kill this by starting the snowblower as a test…but I try to be kind so I wont.

I killed the clipper earlier this month by starting her up.  Soon as I started the thing up it went to Montreal.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this also seems like a snow or bust kind of setup as long as SLP isn’t overhead or east. should get a nice HP filtering in 

Yeah. I suppose the high could retreat or the primary is too strong, but it’s one of the more legit airmasses we’ve seen surrounding a potential event.
 

Thats the thing. It does not need to be 504 thicknesses to snow. A good high to the north and decent antecedent airmass will work. 

[Damage In Tolland]

36 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Serviceable.  

Rest stop toe tap ?

[mahk_webstah]

31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS has been speeding up the second wave a bit more because it’s weaker on the first wave than a lot of other guidance. Esp the GFS suite which is slower. But regardless of whether it’s the 21st or the 22nd, we’d rather have the second wave be the main player because it has a deeper cold airmass in place and also a more pollard PNA ridge so it has higher end potential from a pure cyclogensis standpoint. 
 

The ceiling on the first wave is a lot lower. 

We’ve had a number of very amplified model runs over the last week so I would lean towards a more amplified and result. And this is starting to get the feel of that kind of system. The model show something big then they get confused and lose it for a couple of days and then they start to come back to it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, i'd stick with the multi member plots, Ray -

Yea, clearly. I was mobile and having trouble following.

[Prismshine Productions]

That one tucked 976 member...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[dryslot]

It’s going to snow next weekend, In a good spot right now for at least some lt snows with some of these waves of LP.

[ROOSTA]

Sure would like to see the OP models come around and show it. Give a day or two then maybe get excited.
Slowly evolving into a coastal but not close to the ensembles YET.
A great LR observation and analysis!
It gonna snow... maybe. 

[Snowcrazed71]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Rest stop toe tap ?

Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL 

 

[dryslot]

49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’ll take the 983 and 985 off ACK.

Let’s get a cluster there and we’ll be in business.

[Prismshine Productions]

Here we go, let's see what Happy Hour brings...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Prismshine Productions]

Tick flatter ridge at 129

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/pre-christmas-winter-storm-possible.html

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Here we go, let's see what Happy Hour brings...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

a clipper over Toronto