Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks, Will ! 

...i was looking things over and wondering oh no, what kind of damage control is it gonna take in here this morning...   so, i was going to tell folks that the EPS (and GEPs  both actually ) were not only fine for 170+ hours, but actually trended better, too -  low and behold, we can always count on you   lol

yeah, i also want to add that the last 2 cycles of the operational guidance regressed on the western ridge amplitude.  it's not even subtle.  it's on the order 6 to 10 dem through the arc axis.   quick example, set this recent 18z gfs next to the 00z gfs, and compare the ridge amplitude.   bigger western ridge, more digging in the east.    i don't know if that is going to all be the case, but something is neg interfering with the western heights at a larger scope/picture.  

it may be the the phase 5 mjo - tho it is not a pattern maker, it is a pattern modulator.  so its contribution really shouldn't be ignored entirely.   it can be overcome.  

this isn't the first rodeo with western heights not cooperating in the late mid range, either.

[CoastalWx]

Early 6z euro interpretation looked a little unfavorable with retreating high and both the clipper and the moisture source off the SE coast a little disjointed. It looked to me something more interior favored, but that’s sort of extrapolating well ahead.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Bigger the ridge, the deeper se the shortwave can dig. Can clearly see it last couple gfs runs and how as the ridge flattens the northern stream treks to the gulf of maine instead of Chesapeake Bay. 
 

The trends are not friendly.

[ORH_wxman]

06z eps only goes to 144 on this but this is a bit faster secondary development than 00z

 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z eps only goes to 144 on this but this is a bit faster secondary development than 00z

 

Definitely want to see that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

That look would def favor eastern areas. But too far out to get that granular. It could be tracking over Scooter’s head a few days from now. Signal for a storm is there at least. 
 

Hopefully that first shortwave continues to be deemphasized which will put more focus on the 12/22 system. 

Just speaking of that particular suite...not a hedge. 

[brooklynwx99]

yeah, the ridge amplitude lessening is kinda making this more difficult. we’ll see if it corrects back or if it’s more of a definite trend downwards today

[Prismshine Productions]

Keep in mind the D8-D5 range OPs majorly suck when it comes to losing storms...

Fwiw the 6z Euro actually ticked the ridge back taller than it was at 0z

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Gfs looks interesting out to hr 141. Decent s/w.

[CoastalWx]

Decent Scooter high always gives me movement.

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Decent Scooter high always gives me movement.

Are you twinging down there…

[ORH_wxman]

GFS too squashed this run. But not the worst spot for a week out. 

[CoastalWx]

Yeah pretty far south, but it sort of had that look. I’ll take it.

[Typhoon Tip]

might have to "boxing day bomb" this thing

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS too squashed this run. But not the worst spot for a week out. 

Nothing wrong with that at all at this lead. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

@WinterWolfAny thoughts? Do you think changes are in store?

[CoastalWx]

A little CJ action. Fire up the blog Ray.

[CoastalWx]

Man what a great airmass. Please let this work out.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@WinterWolfAny thoughts? Do you think changes are in store?

lol…yes sir, gave my feeling a few days ago.  I think we see a wintry event sometime around the holiday. A little before, or a little after TBD.  

[MJO812]

Cmc also digging much further south

[CoastalWx]

That second s/w goes to town at hr 180. A little too late, but that’s another player. 

[Typhoon Tip]

fwiw - ggem looks better comparing interval 132 hrs to 144 from 00z

[brooklynwx99]

GFS and CMC both really amped up the second vort

[ORH_wxman]

GGEM looks really threatening at 144. Much more poleward ridge. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man what a great airmass. Please let this work out.

It’s in a good spot at 7 days out. Rather have it be squashed some now, than over Powderfriek today. 

[brooklynwx99]

like that is a wholesale change. much easier to get a ripping S/W south of you instead of depending on some massive TPV buckle like 12/18z yesterday

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That second s/w goes to town at hr 180. A little too late, but that’s another player. 

that's the one we're supposed to be following ...  this 19/20th's n/stream bullying in routine is new...

we're still not completely shedding the wave space contention problem, in addition to the western ridge stuff... altho there may be a relationship.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

GGEM looks really threatening at 144. Much more poleward ridge. 

Kind of like JMA yesterday

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

I like the gfs and how more digged the trough is compared to previous runs where it wanted to send the northern stream from the GL to Nova Scotia. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like that is a wholesale change. much easier to get a ripping S/W south of you instead of depending on some massive TPV buckle like 12/18z yesterday

Yes. Agree.