Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Damage In Tolland]

Still think a nice light - moderate event for the region . Maybe River East 

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

In all seriousness I would trade the system this weekend for a White Christmas, and I am sure I am not alone in that thought

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Of course 

[Kitz Craver]

I was totally checked out and at peace with this event. Then I saw the FN NAM. Why did I do that to myself. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I was totally checked out and at peace with this event. Then I saw the FN NAM. Why did I do that to myself. 

There is a reason "Got NAM'ed" exists...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

Whether it’s convergence, an IVT, the precio shield or a combo of everything, it’s gonna snow. You can just see it on the models. They’re just trying to figure out how 

[Prismshine Productions]

6z GFS would be a very potent winter storm:

-Starts snowing Christmas Eve Night

-Snows until the night of the 26th

-flips to ZR due to a torched midlayer the morning of the 27th

-quick burst on heavy rate snow on the backside the afternoon of the 27rh



Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

We tried to tell em. Head fake 

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We tried to tell em. Head fake 

I can see the cape possibly getting something however

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We tried to tell em. Head fake 

It was more like yesterday's 18z brought it close enough for a COC tease and since then there have been no noticeable improvements in the 0z/6z runs. heavy precip develops too late/offshore. I didn't stay up

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

6z GFS would be a very potent winter storm:

-Starts snowing Christmas Eve Night

-Snows until the night of the 26th

-flips to ZR due to a torched midlayer the morning of the 27th

-quick burst on heavy rate snow on the backside the afternoon of the 27rh



Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Agree

It's close enough but the models are so weak with precip for some reason.

[SouthCoastMA]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We tried to tell em. Head fake 

But we now we look forward to a few flakes very early Christmas morning, before changing to a nice cold steady rain for most of the day. 

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

It was more like yesterday's 18z brought it close enough for a COC tease and since then there have been no noticeable improvements in the 0z/6z runs. heavy precip develops too late/offshore. I didn't stay up

00z def improved from 18z but 06z did not improve from 00z and May have slightly regressed. Prob puts a cap on this things. We’ll see if 12z makes another bump back NW now that we are sampling most of the shortwave. If it doesn’t, that’s prob all she wrote. 

[Prismshine Productions]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

It's close enough but the models are so weak with precip for some reason.

I think we need to monitor that one, unlike this weekend that one is one all three globals

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z def improved from 18z but 06z did not improve from 00z and May have slightly regressed. Prob puts a cap on this things. We’ll see if 12z makes another bump back NW now that we are sampling most of the shortwave. If it doesn’t, that’s prob all she wrote. 

Thanks, I briefly glanced at 0z and yeah it did look slightly better than 18z. Waiting til 12z for another bump nw is fair; we wouldn't need a ton of improvement here. 

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Thanks, I briefly glanced at 0z and yeah it did look slightly better than 18z. Waiting til 12z for another bump nw is fair; we wouldn't need a ton of improvement here. 

Yeah…I’ll add that I do think seeing 06z slightly regress is a bad sign. A lot of times if you get a hard trend inside 3 days, it will just continue for like 4-6 consecutive cycles. 

[WinterWolf]

16 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Thanks, I briefly glanced at 0z and yeah it did look slightly better than 18z. Waiting til 12z for another bump nw is fair; we wouldn't need a ton of improvement here. 

Ya, 0z was a big improvement across the board. See what 12z shows as Will said. You guys are in the best spot for something, so this could be yours. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I applaud you on raising a big family.  Wife and I started late and were one and done.

Well, late for me..not for her lol. Even me, though...late 30's/early 40's isn't that late anymore....

[40/70 Benchmark]

45 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

We tried to tell em. Head fake 

I think most people realized...

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think most people realized...

got any thoughts about next week 

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the buns from people for not working myself into a lather over some light snow on the cape that needs an inexorable trend for the final 72 hours to be anything more. Let me remind myself to massage my prostate to that before bed.

See, this was the operative word in my perfunctory assessment last night, and as expected, its already clear given the 006z suite that we have not met that criteria.

34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z def improved from 18z but 06z did not improve from 00z and May have slightly regressed. Prob puts a cap on this things. We’ll see if 12z makes another bump back NW now that we are sampling most of the shortwave. If it doesn’t, that’s prob all she wrote. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

got any thoughts about next week 

I haven't looked...I have been out of my mind with the holidays approaching and the three kids....wife has really slowed down the past couple of weeks, as she is due 1/3.

[512high]

Ray, You are blessed. It will snow when it wants to....Congrats on your 4th child!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, 512high said:

Ray, You are blessed. It will snow when it wants to....Congrats on your 4th child!

Thanks, Phil....I have a feeling I'll be slightly more "blessed" than I would care to be for most of January, while my wife recovers

[Snowcrazed71]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Thanks, Phil....I have a feeling I'll be slightly more "blessed" than I would care to be for most of January, while my wife recovers

So awesome man. I have four siblings and I love being part of a big family group. Congrats on your upcoming kiddo.

[Damage In Tolland]

This is how it will snow in CT. This setup reeks of an old school norlun 

https://x.com/bobmaxon/status/1869357433270997230?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is how it will snow in CT. This setup reeks of an old school norlun 

https://x.com/bobmaxon/status/1869357433270997230?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

wonder when the last one was for it to be considered "old school"

[CoastalWx]

It’s not a norlun 

[CoastalWx]

And that likely will be more NJ.

[dryslot]

8 hours ago, dryslot said:

Need to see improvements now continue without regression.

After looking at 06 runs, We had regression, I don't think outside of eastern areas possibly, We see anything, Hope I'm wrong.

[SouthCoastMA]

I feel like it's been 11 years since we've had a notable inverted trough down this way. Fraud five is well earned