Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure what more someone can ask for at this range. massive PNA ridge in an ideal spot amplifying a TPV lobe / polar vort 

 

for this audience ?     apparently if there isn't an actual illustration on the physical charts, quite a bit actually -

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

for this audience ?     apparently if there isn't an actual illustration on the physical charts, quite a bit actually -

LOL i think this thread is held to a bit higher standard when discussing the synoptics

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

LOL i think this thread is held to a bit higher standard when discussing the synoptics

i was kind of hoping to convert the title of this thing to a 'monitor' status, so that the entire life cycle of inception to realization can be archived -

obviously, it's less likely to promote to monitoring if a system doesn't meet with minimal play-ground political guidelines ...hahaha. 

no but we seldom get an a to zinc opportunity to catch the whole story.    the pattern recognition patter is hugely successful/high confidence for being the case... but we both know that good patterns sometimes f-over regions, too.

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF has a more progressive first wave and a hellacious vort pass for the second wave. more similar to the CMC than GFS

[brooklynwx99]

like lol this is nasty

[ORH_wxman]

First wave is too close to the second on the euro. Second isn’t able to tap into baroclinicity so it doesn’t produce anything. 
 

First wave does produce advisory snows over the interior though…but it’s a typical elevation slop event. If we can increase the wave spacing, then that second one would prob produce a nice little event…redevelop type. 
 

But this is parsing details at D6-8 so there’s really no use expending too much energy…but it’s something we’ll want to watch for. 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

First wave is too close to the second on the euro. Second isn’t able to tap into baroclinicity so it doesn’t produce anything. 
 

First wave does produce advisory snows over the interior though…it’s it’s a typical elevation slop event. If we can increase the wave spacing, then that second one would prob produce a nice little event…redevelop type. 
 

But this is parsing details at D6-8 so there’s really no use expending too much energy…but it’s something we’ll want to watch for. 

yeah the wave spacing on the ECMWF ruins it verbatim. seems like models today are keying in more on the second wave rather than the first so we'll see if it continues

[Typhoon Tip]

51 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah the wave spacing on the ECMWF ruins it verbatim. seems like models today are keying in more on the second wave rather than the first so we'll see if it continues

to your point, i was comparing the 00z, 170 ish frames with the 12z and two notable difference pop right out.

the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead.

the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words

if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. 

but honestly guys... this wave spacing shit started 2.5 days ago ( roughly...) and with no real trend to figure it out.  or, maybe it just goes on to neg head oblivion wasted terrific pattern change into a storm mode. 

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

to your point, i was comparing the 00z, 170 ish frames with the 12z and two notable difference pop right out.

the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep.

the second is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words

if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate than as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course service the latter amplitude. 

but honestly guys... this wave spacing shit started 2.5 days ago ( roughly...) and with no real trend to figure it out.  or, maybe it just goes on to neg head its self into a wasted terrific pattern change into a storm mode. 

i'm prepared for this exact outcome lmao but we'll see how it pans out

[Typhoon Tip]

eps = somewhat intriguing

gefs = piece of shit

geps = 974 mb on block island

 

that oughta clear things up a bunch -

[Layman]

As simply an observer and consumer of this information, I really appreciate and enjoy reading the meaningful and in-depth analysis from the seasoned and knowledgeable folks in here devoid of the emotional hand-wringing due to as-yet-unknown outcomes that seem to control the frantic posting of many.  Thanks for sharing your thoughts and ideas as this evolves into whatever it may ultimately become.

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah, this is an excellent thread.

[CoastalWx]

EPS sends the low overhead, probably would be a strong one too. I don't know...not much to say this far out. 

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS sends the low overhead, probably would be a strong one too. I don't know...not much to say this far out. 

There sure is…

Congrats Freak 

[WinterWolf]

37 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There sure is…

Congrats Freak 

8 days out…so let’s not get too dramatic. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

First wave is too close to the second on the euro. Second isn’t able to tap into baroclinicity so it doesn’t produce anything. 
 

First wave does produce advisory snows over the interior though…but it’s a typical elevation slop event. If we can increase the wave spacing, then that second one would prob produce a nice little event…redevelop type. 
 

But this is parsing details at D6-8 so there’s really no use expending too much energy…but it’s something we’ll want to watch for. 

Give the second one more spacing and it runs inland ala gfs. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Edit the thread "Pattern Migration into 101 ways to get Porked "

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

for this audience ?     apparently if there isn't an actual illustration on the physical charts, quite a bit actually -

It would be nice to see at least one deterministic solution that doesn't blow wads for MBY. We all understand how higher intellect, meta types can spontaneously ejac to prime positioned PNA ridges....

[brooklynwx99]

first wave continues to crap out on the GFS. should lead to better spacing this run

[brooklynwx99]

and the result...

[Prismshine Productions]

and the result...

Not a half bad look for D8

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[40/70 Benchmark]

Hopefullly that lead wave pulls in a better antecedent airmass

[Prismshine Productions]

Hopefullly that lead wave pulls in a better antecedent airmass

Really high rates in strato

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[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefullly that lead wave pulls in a better antecedent airmass

since it's weaker this run, heights in SE Canada remain much lower, which allows the second wave to amplify into a colder airmass. it's a MECS verbatim

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Hopefullly that lead wave pulls in a better antecedent airmass

it may normalize out into a cf ... but we have to be careful not to allow it ( ...because... we can do that, right ?  ) to advect the moisture away. 

Will might recall but there were a series of storms in that 2000s modeling era that were always 'dry bombs' with a low anchored west, and the moisture and convective feed back low ripping the system open east... but as the systems neared in time, the the feedback low gave up to where the better deep layer instability and left entrance jet region closer to the coast.     not exactly what is happening here but the euro sort of hinted similarly

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

since it's weaker this run, heights in SE Canada remain much lower, which allows the second wave to amplify into a colder airmass. it's a MECS verbatim

Cool. All I needed to see....00z can resume the regularly scheduled HV runner.

[Prismshine Productions]

Solid

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[40/70 Benchmark]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It would be nice to see at least one deterministic solution that doesn't blow wads for MBY. We all understand how higher intellect, meta types can spontaneously ejac to prime positioned PNA ridges....

 

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Solid

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Of course...

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

since it's weaker this run, heights in SE Canada remain much lower, which allows the second wave to amplify into a colder airmass. it's a MECS verbatim

a trend that i mentioned to you a couple hours ago when describing the euro evolution.  so we have both guidance heading toward committing on the 22n instead of the 20th...

which preferentially in these index correction events, there is more typically going to be one restoring event... if the pattern reloads, that's when you get your repeating maintenance/sub-index scale type fun - but that's for later on if need be

 

Euro:  "the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead.

the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words

if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. "

[Prismshine Productions]

a trend that i mentioned to you a couple hours ago when describing the euro evolution.  so we have both guidance heading toward committing on the 22n instead of the 20th...
which preferentially in these index correction events, there is more typically going to be one restoring event... if the pattern reloads, that's when you get your repeating maintenance/sub-index scale type fun - but that's for later on if need be
 
Euro:  "the first is the lead wave more focused on the 20th is weaker by a factor of 2 (est)... it's smaller and less deep compared to the 00z per intervals as it runs out ahead.
the second aspect that leaped out is the wave spacing between the 20th and the second opening up in the 12z compared to the 00z... bigger gap in other words
if the lead (20th) continues to attenuate then as Will pointed out, there's less b-c escape which of course services the latter amplitude. "

So is if the trend continues the 20th will completely disappear for a bomber on the 22nd?

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