Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[ROOSTA]

NEXT....

In search of an extreme event. I do believe that there is a big-one in the deck of cards this season.
aka HECS, a triple phaser. These 6-12" tracking for days just don't seem to cut-it. I want to see a cross polar blocking pattern, massive trough negatively tilted, SJ, NJ, banana 1050 to the N much like Sandy or the Perfect Storm backs in and stalls.

Hey, one can dream.    

 

[DJln491]

did the CMC get into the Molson early today?  

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

did the CMC get into the Molson early today?  

possibly, that or Havana

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, DJln491 said:

did the CMC get into the Molson early today?  

A little tylenol with codeine washed down with a molson xxx. 

[WinterWolf]

These norluns keep showing up on these runs…as Tip and someone else said, could that be a sign of a more westerly move later on?  Just wondering?  Not completely out of the realm of possibility. 

[Snowcrazed71]

18 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

These norluns keep showing up on these runs…as Tip and someone else said, could that be a sign of a more westerly move later on?  Just wondering?  Not completely out of the realm of possibility. 

They mentioned it this morning on channel 8 live feed. Gil Simmons was talking about the Norlun trough and the possibility of that happening Friday night

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

They mentioned it this morning on channel 8 live feed. Gil Simmons was talking about the Norlun trough and the possibility of that happening Friday night

What I meant is, sometimes the models will do that Norlun stuff, when they don’t know exactly where to put the SLP.  And sometimes(not all the time), that can be indicative of a move westward in later runs.  
 

Certainly not trying to wishcast anything, but I was just wondering if that is why we keep seeing this Norlun idea? 

[CoastalWx]

Probably means there is an inv trough chance somewhere vs coming west.

[Snowcrazed71]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

What I meant is, sometimes the models will do that Norlun stuff, when they don’t know exactly where to put the SLP.  And sometimes(not all the time), that can be indicative of a move westward in later runs.  
 

Certainly not trying to wishcast anything, but I was just wondering if that is why we keep seeing this Norlun idea? 

I get what you're saying completely. It's so hard to know which way this would go ( And if it even goes either way ). Helping for a miracle LOL

[WinterWolf]

31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Probably means there is an inv trough chance somewhere vs coming west.

Ya, I think you will be more correct. 

[Prismshine Productions]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya, I think you will be more correct. 

euro hinted at it

[Prismshine Productions]

Just a bit chilly

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[weathafella]

11 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Just a bit chilly

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Honestly by d5 that’s not even noteworthy.

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Honestly by d5 that’s not even noteworthy.

That’s valid 18z. Can probably tack 5-10F onto that. 

[Typhoon Tip]

34 minutes ago, dendrite said:

That’s valid 18z. Can probably tack 5-10F onto that. 

yeah i've come to just stop trying to figure out why the global models are always 10 f too short on highs, summer or winter...

i just figure they stop mixing at 1000 mb and assume that's the sfc sigma everywhere, so they basically don't have a 2-meter temp - even though the f'ing product says that 

[Prismshine Productions]

so they basically don't have a 2-meter temp - even though the f'ing product says that 

Well dang....

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[WxWatcher007]

Christmas Eve 2022 was frigid here. Had a high of 15. Only other day to do that since was Feb 4, 2023 with the Montreal Express cold. No other sub 20 high days.

[Prismshine Productions]

18z NAM missed

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Outer Cape and ACK on NAM. I'll destroy everything if that happens.

[dryslot]

Don't do it.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

Don't do it.

I know, I would have a lot of criminal charges, but the thought is there.

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know, I would have a lot of criminal charges, but the thought is there.

I'm actually thinking about going down to NJ with my 12ga and take down some drones seeing i can't go riding but i would end up in the same situation potentially that you'd be in.

[Layman]

When you guys talk about some of the storms in the past that showed up on modeling then disappeared, only to come back again and be decent storms, were there any characteristics in the patterns that had you saying "No way, that storm can't simply disappear"?  Or alternatively, do you recall statements like we've seen recently where people are saying "It's a garbage airmass", "the flow is too fast", "it's not digging deep enough out west", etc?

As an observer it seems that everyone has given up on anything happening here.  Just curious if the sentiment was the same with other storms in the past that materialized out of nowhere at the last minute or if it was obvious that something could and should happen.  

[CoastalWx]

Congrats Hazey.

[dendrite]

19 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Outer Cape and ACK on NAM. I'll destroy everything if that happens.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z Icon gives you some snow

[CoastalWx]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

18z Icon gives you some snow

Congrats Will on the Reggie CJ.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats Will on the Reggie CJ.

Hopefully Ray has an update on his blog soon. 

[Prismshine Productions]

18z Icon gives you some snow

CNE screwjob

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk