Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[MJO812]

Cmc is also better

[brooklynwx99]

PNA really making a comeback

[Boston Bulldog]

I have a few caution flags on the improved 0z GFS run. Watch where the SLP develops - it congeals on some spurious convection that forms off of FL, helping shunt the ocean storm a bit NW

Sure the upper level changes are there, but I don't think they support such a substantial shift without the convective feedback

 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I have a few caution flags on the improved 0z GFS run. Watch where the SLP develops - it congeals on some spurious convection that forms off of FL, helping shunt the ocean storm a bit NW

Sure the upper level changes are there, but I don't think they support such a strong shift minus the convective feedback

 

That sounds a lot like the NWS Boxing Day warning of the GFS bringing back that one too. 

[Hazey]

GFS finally getting its sea legs back. Late to the party but should steady up now. That run slays Nova Scotia…lol. Damn. Could easily catch the Cape and SE Mass. Keep the faith.

[ineedsnow]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Cmc is also better

ya it is staying up for the Euro now

[MJO812]

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

ya it is staying up for the Euro now

It’ll disappoint..go to bed and get some rest, and catch up in the morning. 

[Boston Bulldog]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That sounds a lot like the NWS Boxing Day warning of the GFS bringing back that one too. 

I wish that is the case! Idk, this configuration just doesn't scream cyclogenesis close to NC.

We need a sharper and deeper trough. And we need that to trend quickly. Decent move from 18z I guess

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I wish that is the case! Idk, this configuration just doesn't scream cyclogenesis close to NC.

We need a sharper and deeper trough. And we need that to trend quickly

What I meant was the wording…not so much the set up.  I’m certainly not saying this is coming back as a legit system…but the amount of time that is left, is more than enough time to accomplish that, if the set up were to foster that. 

[ineedsnow]

GEFS taking a big shift

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS taking a big shift

Convective feedback? 

[brooklynwx99]

better wave spacing and taller PNA, more consolidated vort on the GEFS

[brooklynwx99]

@Typhoon Tip heights downstream of the vort max are actually buckling this run as you were talking about earlier 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

GEFS taking a big shift

 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

@Typhoon Tip heights downstream of the vort max are actually buckling this run as you were talking about earlier 

That’s a nice/positive development. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Vermont just won their first ever National Championship that isn't Skiing...

Hopefully Mother Nature throws us a party

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[MJO812]

Ukie is way north of 12z

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie is way north of 12z

 

[ineedsnow]

kicks east at the last minute but very close

[brooklynwx99]

euro makes the same improvements with the PNA

[Prismshine Productions]

Euro was a step in the right direction

[Prismshine Productions]

interesting, a few GEFS ensembles have snow for Christmas Morning

[Prismshine Productions]

FWIW the 0z JMA also came NW so had a complete sweep positive trend

[brooklynwx99]

pretty obvious trend that's coinciding with the more favorable PNA

[George001]

Models took a big jog north with the low offshore

[Prismshine Productions]

Models took a big jog north with the low offshore

Yeah, they all did

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[Prismshine Productions]

Been the tenor really: see a storm, signal goes to shit, but it comeback t-100hrs

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[DJln491]

Not sure what to make of 6z gfs. It appears to be another move west until the very end where it kind of fizzles ots. 

[CoastalWx]

6z is offshore.