Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, ariof said:

It wasn't until it was in NAM range that the models even picked up on the first of those storms … that was on the 24th.

10 years ago and I still remember seeing that first monster run on that Saturday.

Yup…early sat morning the 25th(0z Euro) brought it back from the dead. 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It does. When you see shortwaves out west you can’t buckle the flow in the east . What goes up must come down . Follow along now 

Beer.  Bro that’s not why this isn’t becoming a big event..you need to follow along. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Beer.  Bro that’s not why this isn’t becoming a big event..you need to follow along. 

It absolutely is. There are shortwaves in Canada and PAC NW and the flow is too meridianonal and fast. PAC jet. Keep up son 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It absolutely is. There are shortwaves in Canada and PAC NW and the flow is too meridianonal and fast. PAC jet. Keep up son 

You obviously “haven’t been keeping up.”  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It absolutely is. There are shortwaves in Canada and PAC NW and the flow is too meridianonal and fast. PAC jet. Keep up son 

Meriodonal is a helping factor…the wave spacing is the problem with this one.  You need to brush up. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Meriodonal is a helping factor…the wave spacing is the problem with this one.  You need to brush up. 

Brush deez nuts!

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Brush deez nuts!

If we had a little more spacing, that shortwave could amplify more, and sharpen the trough, and the meridional flow along the east coast, would bring this thing up the coast to us.  So Brush youz nuts. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Holy crap have we really devolved to having an argument over the fail mode?...

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[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Holy crap have we really devolved to having an argument over the fail mode?...

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Welcome to NewEng…enjoy the show.

[CoastalWx]

McKesson Christmas party this evening?

[brooklynwx99]

wave spacing masterclass. at this point it's just the universe spinning the wheel and fucking us

[Prismshine Productions]

Welcome to NewEng…enjoy the show.

Welcome to New England;
Have a look around
Where plenty of fail modes
For snowstorms can be found...

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[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Holy crap have we really devolved to having an argument over the fail mode?...

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There’s no argument…he’s a few IPA’s in, and just doesn’t know what he’s saying. 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Holy crap have we really devolved to having an argument over the fail mode?...

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Arguing over the cause of death tells you everything you need to know about the odds of this coming back to life lol

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It does. When you see shortwaves out west you can’t buckle the flow in the east . What goes up must come down . Follow along now 

Says every married man in the morning…

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wave spacing masterclass. at this point it's just the universe spinning the wheel and fucking us

Sometimes that’s just how it goes unfortunately.  There was a time not that long ago, where we were pulling systems out of our backsides, that should have never worked, and they did. Again, regression is a bitch. 

[Snowcrazed71]

42 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Just not seeing that 

I'm still wondering where you got the 3-6/4-8 idea from? Not sure anything ever showed that yet. And trust me, I think we all want that. But, I think you're setting yourself up for failure with this one. 

If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to apologize 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

I'm still wondering where you got the 3-6/4-8 idea from? Not sure anything ever showed that yet. And trust me, I think we all want that. But, I think you're setting yourself up for failure with this one. 

If I'm wrong, I'll be the first to apologize 

Nothing showed that, He just throws it out there cuz that’s what he wants/thinks lol…he’s in the  “trying to convince himself mode” of the storm tracking routine.  
 

Remember Friday with the wind ideas…well it’s the same with this.  He’ll come around to “acceptance” by Wednesday or Thursday, and he’ll be as depressed as a bum on the street, without a bottle.  Then he’ll say there is nothing to look forward to, and When the next system comes around, the whole  routine will repeat.  
 

It’s actually kind of funny.   

[Damage In Tolland]

There’s just too much hate and vitriol on this board when it doesn’t snow and you try and bring some rationale to it. 

[Roger Smith]

At this point, GFS is essentially a dry transition to very cold, but other models give some support for 1-3" snowfalls Friday night into Saturday morning. The potential for 3-6" is weak but could be revived by any stronger phasing. For now I would predict 0.5 to 2.0 inches to limit error potential. (BTV could get a locally heavy lake effect snowfall too).  

[Torch Tiger]

Maybe this will brighten the holiday mood?

[Prismshine Productions]

Maybe this will brighten the holiday mood?

Only for Forky

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[ineedsnow]

18z Euro still ots but looked better.. getting late in the game though

[klw]

17 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Maybe this will brighten the holiday mood?

The good folks of Churchill, Manitoba will be saving on their home heating costs.

[Torch Tiger]

2 minutes ago, klw said:

The good folks of Churchill, Manitoba will be saving on their home heating costs.

we all will

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

we all will

At least we can test out our new beach toys.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, klw said:

The good folks of Churchill, Manitoba will be saving on their home heating costs.

Not necessarily. Their normal high for 12/28 is about -4 F, so if you add 12 degrees Celsius to that(21 F), you’re still at only 17 degrees F for a high temp…still quite cold for the most part.   So I mean it’s not like it’s gonna be 60 degrees there. The pretty colors can be deceiving up in those parts.  

[greenmtnwx]

42 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not necessarily. Their normal high for 12/28 is about -4 F, so if you add 12 degrees Celsius to that(21 F), you’re still at only 17 degrees F for a high temp…still quite cold for the most part.   So I mean it’s not like it’s gonna be 60 degrees there. The pretty colors can be deceiving up in those parts.  

Still much cheaper to heat from 17 than it is -4.

Also makes a big difference where it starts from by the time it makes it to this latitude. 
 

 

[Torch Tiger]

10 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Still much cheaper to heat from 17 than it is -4.

Also makes a big difference where it starts from by the time it makes it to this latitude. 
 

 

By that logic we are adding 10-20+ to avg highs near 35-45F.  yikes

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Wolfie fights Greta every chance he gets. He needs to do it. For the sake of his cubs.