Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s at least some support for that follow-up storm. 

 

 

oh, i suggest there's still open question as to whether or not we're seeing one or the other, not both, Will.

the western ridge is improved, but the operational version of that is less amplified than the ens mean. that is not typical at this range of D7-10...usually, the ens means are the normalizing version at extended leads, as obviously they incorporate the greater variance on both sides ...etc..  

the short of this is that the gfs' amplitude in the west - should that improve toward the ens, than the lead system slows down and more phasing transpires...and that probably tosses the two sys in 4 day idea in lieu of one dominant in that case.  which could be either the 20th or the 23rdish

there's still plenty of time to work this stuff out at 200 hours.

[brooklynwx99]

i think the main way to win here is for the first wave to establish a colder airmass and for the second one to buckle into the colder airmass with fresh HP in SE Canada

if, of course, there are actually two distinct waves

[Typhoon Tip]

usually, these index correction events ( h. archambaultian) don't come in duples.  the gist of those bigger signals take place because the index(es) en masse change implies/installs a mass discontinuity and as that passes through the field, there is an equally handsomely large restoral requirement. boom.   it's 'an event' followed by a period of rest.

those duple things ... like dec 1996 for example.  those are more at sub-index scaled.  they are not occurring because of a large mass field disruption and restoring requirement at those large scales, so they are not for huge mechanical forcing to occur. 

[Typhoon Tip]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ain't no hate on a Rockies ridge.

most of this was based upon that but i'm frankly getting annoyed that the models are attempting that without consequence.  heh.  maybe it's a cc thing... haha

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

most of this was based upon that but i'm frankly getting annoyed that the models are attempting that without consequence.  heh.  maybe it's a cc thing... haha

There's definitely potential with that look. But you know as well as anyone that the smallest thing can always screw up east coast cyclogenesis. 

[brooklynwx99]

EPS also has a taller PNA and more favorable trough axis for the trailing energy

[brooklynwx99]

like this is the exact shift you want

[HoarfrostHubb]

From BOX AFD

Ensembles further diverge toward the end of the week. As a result of differences in the upper pattern, there is uncertainty in temperatures Thursday with some solutions leaning toward a cooler airmass in place and others showing a ridge with highs closer to normal.

[FXWX]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

There's definitely potential with that look. But you know as well as anyone that the smallest thing can always screw up east coast cyclogenesis. 

Certainly easy to screw up, but I would like to play with that pattern a few times this winter.  It will be interesting to see if the recent winter trend of shredding energy to pieces rears it's ugly head, or if we can finally get a coherent sw to swing into the mean trough and generate a viable stc low tracking under SNE.  I know Tip has correctly harped about the speed issue for the past few winters?  This setup could be the first test of this winter??? The look is a tease for now...

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Certainly easy to screw up, but I would like to play with that pattern a few times this winter.  It will be interesting to see if the recent winter trend of shredding energy to pieces rears it's ugly head, or if we can finally get a coherent sw to swing into the mean trough and generate a viable stc low tracking under SNE.  I know Tip has correctly harped about the speed issue for the past few winters?  This setup could be the first test of this winter??? The look is a tease for now...

For sure, I'd take that twenty ways from Tuesday. It's also getting into reality land vs residing in the land of make believe. 

[Typhoon Tip]

yehh   the operational ecm is bit of a troubled break from that ens mean and doesn't look right - either way

i wouldn't trust that look beyond 144    there's too much weight at this point heading thru a +d(pna) --> strongish +pnap to believe the euro op's half-assed commitment to western ridge/morphology will be able to score a coup and be that f- up. 

n/stream bipass stretching the field through the eastern Lakes on the 20th really should have dug more into a meridian trajectory given to the ens mean - and plus...it's creating a wave spacing in doing so that stresses believability for that reason alone.

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like this is the exact shift you want

i mentioned this to Will a while ago ... i'm not more/less certain on either the 20/21st or the 22/23rd.  i suspect when push comes to shove, we may may really be dealing with one event between the 19th and 23rd, but the moving parts are a combination of spread out all over kingdom come, or, don't even exist yet because they have to be synergistically produced in the future by result of interacting dynamics - an aspect in particular that offers certain challenges to modeling tech. 

[Prismshine Productions]

i mentioned this to Will a while ago ... i'm not more/less certain on either the 20/21st or the 22/23rd.  i suspect when push comes to shove, we may may really be dealing with one event between the 19th and 23rd, but the moving parts are a combination of spread out all over kingdom come, or, don't even exist yet because they have to by synergistically produced in the future - an aspect in particular that offers certain challenges to modeling tech. 

Any likelyhood of a two-three day event?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Any likelyhood of a two-three day event?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Don’t get greedy…

[Prismshine Productions]

Don’t get greedy…

Not greed, general curiousity considering the close spacing between the wave energy chances

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[WinterWolf]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Not greed, general curiousity considering the close spacing between the wave energy chances

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

I was messing with ya…as Tip said, probably gonna be one or the other if one had to guess, at this lead.  At least we have something to keep an eye on. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i mentioned this to Will a while ago ... i'm not more/less certain on either the 20/21st or the 22/23rd.  i suspect when push comes to shove, we may may really be dealing with one event between the 19th and 23rd, but the moving parts are a combination of spread out all over kingdom come, or, don't even exist yet because they have to by synergistically produced in the future - an aspect in particular that offers certain challenges to modeling tech. 

This timing sequence reminds me of 2008.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Not greed, general curiousity considering the close spacing between the wave energy chances

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Isn't a 2-3 day event often really 2 events?  Like a SWFE and then a coastal?

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This timing sequence reminds me of 2008.

exactly

Like Dec 2008 2 events in 3 days.  Actually 3 events in 5 days up here for a total of 31".  It was my 1st winter up here and I thought that was normal lol.  Of course we moved in on March 31 with a 2 ft snow pack that was in the process of melting down from what was an almost 4' pack.

[brooklynwx99]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i mentioned this to Will a while ago ... i'm not more/less certain on either the 20/21st or the 22/23rd.  i suspect when push comes to shove, we may may really be dealing with one event between the 19th and 23rd, but the moving parts are a combination of spread out all over kingdom come, or, don't even exist yet because they have to be synergistically produced in the future by result of interacting dynamics - an aspect in particular that offers certain challenges to modeling tech. 

i could see a weaker vort that drags the baroclinic zone south and brings in a better airmass before a larger system on the 21-22. not sure if that would be considered two storms, per se  

[FXWX]

23 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i could see a weaker vort that drags the baroclinic zone south and brings in a better airmass before a larger system on the 21-22. not sure if that would be considered two storms, per se  

I thought the same thing; back in the "good old days" having that type of scenario playout was not uncommon.  Not so much in recent winters...

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i could see a weaker vort that drags the baroclinic zone south and brings in a better airmass before a larger system on the 21-22. not sure if that would be considered two storms, per se  

same page ... but i do consider the 'main' event to be a single deal.  

the thing is, it's like none of this happens in a vacuum of assistance from other factors, so dragging bczones and layin' in a crucial increment of colder air - i dunno.  i'm getting a headache already  lol

[alex]

1 hour ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Any likelyhood of a two-three day event?

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

We got that during the holidays last year. 3 days of warm rain concluded by a massive flood

[Typhoon Tip]

ensembles coming around ... all three have more coherent emergence, choosing the 21st 

the gefs on the left - i like that the spread at this range isn't smearing west to buffalo

the eps, middle - i don't like that the spread is nw

the geps on the right - seems to be playing catch-up on this whole ordeal

 

the 500 mb evolution of the 20-22nd suggests that there are deep solution potential resulting from all this. the individual/point members in the above depiction, notwithstanding...  but the most impressive was the d(gp) between the 19th and 21st by the eps' 00z.  there two nodes of vorticity that are implied in the evolution below; they in the process of rotating cyclonically relative to the total l/w evolution. whenever you see that, and then the right frame are the favored resulting coalescence ( very deep result ) that is typical of major events that are born of constructive interference (   ...  this is obviously all still an evolving scenario ); the graphical mean above does not actually do below justice.  this will be interesting in new run cycles..

 

one aspect that keeps sticking out to me is that there is a speed issue with the streams.  particularly with the n/stream.   any attempt to dig the n/stream is producing an usually strong gradient - this is effecting the efficiency of multiple aspects ranging from cyclogen stressing .. to how well the the phasing ( like the above implication by the eps ) can actually take place.

there is a new, growing -epo signal that is occurring in temporal coincidence with the +d(pna) --> +pnap.  i'm beginning to suspect this is why the western ridge has been middling in response to the +d(pna) forcing - there's some -interference implied by that.  the -epo needs to precede/lapse into a +d(pna), not occur at the same time.  i think the operational versions have been dealing with that all along, which may account of some of why their ridge responses don't look as good the ensemble means.  

there's probably going to be a system that results from all this but where and amplitude, cold vs warm ... ?   the usual headaches

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

All are rainers to Mainers 

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

All are rainers to Mainers 

yeah ...well, should that be the case, welcome to the 24th century and beyond I suppose -

[brooklynwx99]

not sure what more someone can ask for at this range. massive PNA ridge in an ideal spot amplifying a TPV lobe / polar vort 

[Typhoon Tip]

bizarre evolution on the 12z oper gfs... 

you can definitely see the speed surplus in the flow causing problems for if/how/when there could be any wave interaction. 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

not sure what more someone can ask for at this range. massive PNA ridge in an ideal spot amplifying a TPV lobe / polar vort 

this run continues with two important wave spaces embedded in the larger total hemispheric amplification scenario.  it's tying for both's identity - the lead on the 20th, then this (abv) cuts off and does a rather unrealistic whatever by the 22nd... 

it's highly suspect to me.  i'm waiting for the other shoe to fall on one or those being dominant still ...   but hell, stranger things have happened

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

this run continues with two important wave spaces embedded in the larger total hemispheric amplification scenario.  it's tying for both's identity - the lead on the 20th, then this (abv) cuts off and does a rather unrealistic whatever by the 22nd... 

it's highly suspect to me.  i'm waiting for the other shoe to fall on one or those being dominant still ...   but hell, stranger things have happened

given the taller +PNA spike towards the 21-22, I think the wave on the 19-20 likely gets more and more washed out. the CMC is a good example of that