Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, wx2fish said:

Man what a brutal map. What a furnace last Dec was. Almost +7F with 0.7" snow at CON. 

Brutality, This ones a bit better temp wise and snow wise but nothing to write home about.

[Prismshine Productions]

Brutality, This ones a bit better temp wise and snow wise but nothing to write home about.

Glass half full, improvement is improvement

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Two types of Nor’easters…Miller A’s which come out of the Gulf of Mexico or deep SE coast, and ride all the way up. and B’s that redevelop off the coast of the mid Atlantic.   This one would have been a B. 

Haha... I was just kidding, but it's nice that I got two responses from two different people of what it is. 

I think the last one I remember that was a true Miller A was the 1993 storm. Not thinking of any others at this moment

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Haha... I was just kidding, but it's nice that I got two responses from two different people of what it is. 

I think the last one I remember that was a true Miller A was the 1993 storm. Not thinking of any others at this moment

96 and Boxing Day 2010 were A’s. 

[cleetussnow]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

96 and Boxing Day 2010 were A’s. 

Yep and it speaks to how unusual they are.  '93 was also considered a Miller A.  So we want one - but those are as rare as hen's teeth.  

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Yep and it speaks to how unusual they are.  '93 was also considered a Miller A.  So we want one - but those are as rare as hen's teeth.  

They’re better for the Mid Atlantic most times.  Feb 06 was a huge storm for NYC and Here in CT too(2 feet+)…I wanna say that was an A..??  But I’m not sure. 

[FXWX]

1 minute ago, cleetussnow said:

Yep and it speaks to how unusual they are.  '93 was also considered a Miller A.  So we want one - but those are as rare as hen's teeth.  

Rare now...the last couple of decades... The heydays of Miller A's were the 1960's and 70's and even a few years in the 90's...  I keep wondering if the lack A's is tied to what Tip has harped about so many times; "the relatively recent trend of northern shift of the Hadley cell" leading to more northern latitude compressed flow / speed enhancement and thus more shearing out of northern stream short waves; thus less digging.  If that is part of the issue, the Miller A's are going to be increasingly hard to come by.

[cleetussnow]

1 minute ago, FXWX said:

Rare now...the last couple of decades... The heydays of Miller A's were the 1960's and 70's and even a few years in the 90's...  I keep wondering if the lack A's is tied to what Tip has harped about so many times; "the relatively recent trend of northern shift of the Hadley cell" leading to more northern latitude compressed flow / speed enhancement and thus more shearing out of northern stream short waves; thus less digging.  If that is part of the issue, the Miller A's are going to be increasingly hard to come by.

Maybe

But the 2000's was a big decade for Miller As

March 2001 (pretty sure)

Feb. 2003 Presidents Day

Feb 2005

So it's been 15 years since we had one.  But we did 15 years from through the 80's as well.  I don't think that means we are due - just sayin 15 years is not unheard of.  

[Snowcrazed71]

12 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Rare now...the last couple of decades... The heydays of Miller A's were the 1960's and 70's and even a few years in the 90's...  I keep wondering if the lack A's is tied to what Tip has harped about so many times; "the relatively recent trend of northern shift of the Hadley cell" leading to more northern latitude compressed flow / speed enhancement and thus more shearing out of northern stream short waves; thus less digging.  If that is part of the issue, the Miller A's are going to be increasingly hard to come by.

So what we're saying is A's were good lays!? ( Now I feel like DIT ) HA! 

[ROOSTA]

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

He missed 2014-15 I think.  That stings 

I left on the 01-12-15. If I only knew without a doubt would have stayed. First big snows hit a week later... 
No indication what-so-ever to what was going to happen. No idea that my health was going to fail either.  

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

I left on the 01-12-15. If I only knew without a doubt would have stayed. First big snows hit a week later... 
No indication what-so-ever to what was going to happen. No idea that my health was going to fail either.  

A week after you left there wasn’t really a big snow…1-4” of wet snow on night of 1/24(Friday night), into morning of 1/25.  It was the 27th that started the barrage. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

26 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Rare now...the last couple of decades... The heydays of Miller A's were the 1960's and 70's and even a few years in the 90's...  I keep wondering if the lack A's is tied to what Tip has harped about so many times; "the relatively recent trend of northern shift of the Hadley cell" leading to more northern latitude compressed flow / speed enhancement and thus more shearing out of northern stream short waves; thus less digging.  If that is part of the issue, the Miller A's are going to be increasingly hard to come by.

Shhh..the wolf is lurking. 

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

Maybe

But the 2000's was a big decade for Miller As

March 2001 (pretty sure)

Feb. 2003 Presidents Day

Feb 2005

So it's been 15 years since we had one.  But we did 15 years from through the 80's as well.  I don't think that means we are due - just sayin 15 years is not unheard of.  

Mar '01 was more of a Miller B. Sort of hybrid system maybe.

There were some decent Miller As in the 2010s too. They didn't always hit us though....Feb 5-6, 2010. Dec 26, 2010. Jan 26-27, 2011, Feb 13-14, 2014, Jan 22-23, 2016, Jan 4, 2018.

[cleetussnow]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar '01 was more of a Miller B. Sort of hybrid system maybe.

There were some decent Miller As in the 2010s too. They didn't always hit us though....Feb 5-6, 2010. Dec 26, 2010. Jan 26-27, 2011, Feb 13-14, 2014, Jan 22-23, 2016, Jan 4, 2018.

If they missed - we forget.  LOL these are not rare so much 

[WinterWolf]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Mar '01 was more of a Miller B. Sort of hybrid system maybe.

There were some decent Miller As in the 2010s too. They didn't always hit us though....Feb 5-6, 2010. Dec 26, 2010. Jan 26-27, 2011, Feb 13-14, 2014, Jan 22-23, 2016, Jan 4, 2018.

Yup I mentioned Boxing Day.  January 2016 buried NYC on south, and coastal CT did quite well.  Up into inland CT here it quickly dropped off with that one. I received about 10-11 inches from that one here. But once north of me, it dropped off fast. Jan 26-27, 2011 was awesome here in CT..a real burial.
 

Jan 4 2018 was pretty good despite it being quite far out to sea…storm was enormous and we were on the western fringe of that monster. 

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

If they missed - we forget.  LOL these are not rare so much 

Not as rare as folks make em out to be…they often hit mid Atlantic good, and can be a little more questionable for SNE, depending on track and when occlusion occurs?  But we’ve been getting more B’s of late. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Generally expecting two rounds of precipitation during this part of
the forecast. The first looks to be sometime Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning, and the second some time Friday into
Saturday. Expecting mainly rainfall with this first event, with snow
possible across the higher terrain of western and central MA,
especially at night. A similar situation for the late week system,
where a mix of rain and snow is possible. Snow appears to be more
likely across the interior, but where the rain/snow line sets up is
still uncertain. Southern New England looks to be sandwiched between
a low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into Canada and an
offshore low pressure.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not as rare as folks make em out to be…they often hit mid Atlantic good, and can be a little more questionable for SNE, depending on track and when occlusion occurs?  But we’ve been getting more B’s of late. 

Miller As have always been more precarious in New England. Sometimes they’re great and other times they are awful. 
 

Miller Bs are more common in general just because they come from northern stream redevelopers and the northern stream is far more active than the southern stream most years. 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Generally expecting two rounds of precipitation during this part of
the forecast. The first looks to be sometime Wednesday afternoon
into Thursday morning, and the second some time Friday into
Saturday. Expecting mainly rainfall with this first event, with snow
possible across the higher terrain of western and central MA,
especially at night. A similar situation for the late week system,
where a mix of rain and snow is possible. Snow appears to be more
likely across the interior, but where the rain/snow line sets up is
still uncertain. Southern New England looks to be sandwiched between
a low pressure moving from the Great Lakes into Canada and an
offshore low pressure.

Yep…sandwiched in no man’s land for Friday. Big squander of a decent longwave pattern if we whiff but that’s the game sometimes. 
 

Hopefully we still pull off a few inches but I’m getting skeptical. The EPS mean is 1-2 inches across a chunk of SNE. I noticed maybe 25% of the members or so had 3”+ for at least part of SNE…so can’t rule out a lighter event but this longwave pattern had potential for something much larger so it’s disappointing either way. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep…sandwiched in no man’s land for Friday. Big squander of a decent longwave pattern if we whiff but that’s the game sometimes. 
 

Hopefully we still pull off a few inches but I’m getting skeptical. The EPS mean is 1-2 inches across a chunk of SNE. I noticed maybe 25% of the members or so had 3”+ for at least part of SNE…so can’t rule out a lighter event but this longwave pattern had potential for something much larger so it’s disappointing either way. 

I don’t see anyway all of SNE comes out of this with no snow Otg. A light - moderate event . This never had a chance to be anything more within fast PAC flow. I don’t understand why some folks won’t just enjoy a nice wintry system 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see anyway all of SNE comes out of this with no snow Otg. A light - moderate event . This never had a chance to be anything more within fast PAC flow. I don’t understand why some folks won’t just enjoy a nice wintry system 

Because at the moment, it doesn't appear to be likely. What a squander.

[greenmtnwx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see anyway all of SNE comes out of this with no snow Otg. A light - moderate event . This never had a chance to be anything more within fast PAC flow. I don’t understand why some folks won’t just enjoy a nice wintry system 

Uh oh the spin is starting lol

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see anyway all of SNE comes out of this with no snow Otg. A light - moderate event . This never had a chance to be anything more within fast PAC flow. I don’t understand why some folks won’t just enjoy a nice wintry system 

It could easily just be a few flurries. We’ve had plenty of model runs that show almost nothing. It could end up as a 1-3/2-4 deal too but there’s no reason to dismiss flurries or nothing. 
 

The PAC pattern could easily support a larger event. We had pretty meridional flow. But we ended up with wave spacing issues in the southern stream. That’s something you can’t see in the longer range. Individual shortwaves are hard to predict. 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see anyway all of SNE comes out of this with no snow Otg. A light - moderate event . This never had a chance to be anything more within fast PAC flow. I don’t understand why some folks won’t just enjoy a nice wintry system 

That AFD, you don’t want to be “in between” two Shortwaves. I read that as a negative not a positive for accumulating snow.

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Because at the moment, it doesn't appear to be likely. What a squander.

Just not seeing that 

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I don’t see anyway all of SNE comes out of this with no snow Otg. A light - moderate event . This never had a chance to be anything more within fast PAC flow. I don’t understand why some folks won’t just enjoy a nice wintry system 

Fast PAC has nothing to do with this not being a bigger event. 

[ariof]

58 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

A week after you left there wasn’t really a big snow…1-4” of wet snow on night of 1/24(Friday night), into morning of 1/25.  It was the 27th that started the barrage. 

It wasn't until it was in NAM range that the models even picked up on the first of those storms … that was on the 24th.

10 years ago and I still remember seeing that first monster run on that Saturday.

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

That AFD, you don’t want to be “in between” two Shortwaves. I read that as a negative not a positive for accumulating snow.

It literally reads that it’s going to snow. I mean literally

[WinterWolf]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

That AFD, you don’t want to be “in between” two Shortwaves. I read that as a negative not a positive for accumulating snow.

Ya..that’s a negative.  I mean if something changes between now and Friday night/Sat, then obviously that can change too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Fast PAC has nothing to do with this not being a bigger event. 

It does. When you see shortwaves out west you can’t buckle the flow in the east . What goes up must come down . Follow along now