Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[brooklynwx99]

the random uptick at 06z on the EPS before the massive kick in the balls is almost comical. it's like the models have been engineered for max pain

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What's a Miller A? 

Lol

Two types of Nor’easters…Miller A’s which come out of the Gulf of Mexico or deep SE coast, and ride all the way up. and B’s that redevelop off the coast of the mid Atlantic.   This one would have been a B. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

the random uptick at 06z on the EPS before the massive kick in the balls is almost comical. it's like the models have been engineered for max pain

I’ve said that for years. Lol. 

[dryslot]

11 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

What's a Miller A? 

Lol

A track that originates with a low over the gulf that develops a secondary along the Carolinas that generally porks NE because it blows its load over the Mid Atlantic.

[Prismshine Productions]

-takes one look
-sees the NAVGEM

Whelp see ya next year

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[FXWX]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need Miller As back again

The good old days when sharp digging northern stream short waves would dive deep into the southern states, phase some southern stream energy and the go boom on the NC coast before heading toward the benchmark!  These days you have to flip through the Kocin books to get a sense of how nice they were!

[dryslot]

Just look back to last week when it showed the mid atlantic getting 40" of snow on the 22nd.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The good old days when sharp digging northern stream short waves would dive deep into the southern states, phase some southern stream energy and the go boom on the NC coast before heading toward the benchmark!  These days you have to flip through the Kocin books to get a sense of how nice they were!

They’ll be more chances going forward. We’ll remain patient. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, FXWX said:

The good old days when sharp digging northern stream short waves would dive deep into the southern states, phase some southern stream energy and the go boom on the NC coast before heading toward the benchmark!  These days you have to flip through the Kocin books to get a sense of how nice they were!

Just have to be patient. It will come back at some point. Could be this year, next year, next decade…or next century. We just don’t know but I know it will happen. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They’ll be more chances going forward. We’ll remain patient. 

Fuck patience. 

[tamarack]

35 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You should be getting use to that now on Christmas, Look at the bright side, You won't get a visit from the grinch this year.

My "Grinch list" includes those w/o snow OG.  Current score is 16 rainy Grinches, 4 with rain but bare ground, one with warmth but no snow or rain, and a lowly 5 with no Grinch storms/wx.  Over the 26 years, the period Dec 23-25 has run 3° AN and except for the best non-Grinch (8" and cold on Christmas 2017) there's been scant snowfall.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just look back to last week when it showed the mid atlantic getting 40" of snow on the 22nd.

They watchin storms fall, Aw made ya look
You a slave to a page in the model book
Gettin' Big KU’s, playboy your time's up
Where them weenies at? Where them big snows at? 
 

…Made ya look. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck patience. 

Well you’re gonna be waiting whether you like it or not pal.   
 

Being we’ve had some snow here, it doesn’t sting quite as much. 

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just have to be patient. It will come back at some point. Could be this year, next year, next decade…or next century. We just don’t know but I know it will happen. 

Oh it will Luke..it will. 

[rclab]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

They’ll be more chances going forward. We’ll remain patient. 

 

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck patience. 

7 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just have to be patient. It will come back at some point. Could be this year, next year, next decade…or next century. We just don’t know but I know it will happen. 

I agree WW … but also appreciate CW point. I’m nearing the end of my 8th decade, I can only pray that RAI’s earlier “come back” predictions come true. Stay well all, as always …..

[rclab]

8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

They watchin storms fall, Aw made ya look
You a slave to a page in the model book
Gettin' Big KU’s, playboy your time's up
Where them weenies at? Where them big snows at? 
 

…Made ya look. 

Actually you made me look back at a recording of Ole Man River by the magnificent Paul Robeson. As always …..

[tamarack]

47 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I would have to look back but pretty sure this would be the first Christmas since moving here that there wasn't atleast a inch on Christmas.. 

You had white ground last Christmas, 7 days after the torch-deluge?  The 4 major SNE sites show not a flake over that period, as does Norfolk in the CT hills.  Up here we had a dusting on 12/13 but otherwise had nary a flake from 12/6 thru the 29th.  (However, we had 7.21" RA during that period.)

[MJO812]

23 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Just look back to last week when it showed the mid atlantic getting 40" of snow on the 22nd.

 

[tamarack]

26 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A track that originates with a low over the gulf that develops a secondary along the Carolinas that generally porks NE because it blows its load over the Mid Atlantic.

Here we get siggy snow from Miller A's about as frequently as thundersnow.
 

Just look back to last week when it showed the mid Atlantic getting 40" of snow on the 22nd.

The NNJ town where I grew up had 3" overnight.  Only 37" to go.

[dryslot]

Just now, tamarack said:

Here we get siggy snow from Miller A's about as frequently as thundersnow.
 

Just look back to last week when it showed the mid Atlantic getting 40" of snow on the 22nd.

The NNJ town where I grew up had 3" overnight.  Only 37" to go.

Yes, I will take all the Miller B's that CT don't want, Those and clippers.

[Prismshine Productions]

Hurt myself this morning, tenth of an inch of snow glazed by ZR is NOT a fun fall...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Yes, I will take all the Miller B's that CT don't want, Those and clippers.

We’re in a good spot for both types here. ‘78 was a miller B. ‘13 was a B. ‘96 was an A.  The late bloomers can leave us a little light..but we’ve had plenty of really good B’s.  

[ineedsnow]

20 minutes ago, tamarack said:

You had white ground last Christmas, 7 days after the torch-deluge?  The 4 major SNE sites show not a flake over that period, as does Norfolk in the CT hills.  Up here we had a dusting on 12/13 but otherwise had nary a flake from 12/6 thru the 29th.  (However, we had 7.21" RA during that period.)

I'll have to look but I remember having snow when most around didnt.. 

[ariof]

5 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

the gfs just does this, i swear.   it puts out one run from like 12 days in advance that's balls on perfect, then spends the next 60 model run cycles raging in ocd to engineer every plausible f'n alternate universe that can exist in a reality constructed by the quantum uncertainty principle instead of the original. 

Lowest temps were around 0Z on Feb 4 at -10˚

GFS lowest temps for KBOS:

1/28 00Z: -3˚
1/28 06Z: 8˚
1/28 12Z: 4˚
1/28 18Z: -2˚
1/29 00Z: -8˚
1/29 06Z: -4˚
1/29 12Z: -9˚
1/29 18Z: -9˚
1/30 00Z: -7˚
1/30 06Z: -8˚
1/30 12Z: -9˚
1/30 18Z: -7˚
1/31 00Z: 1˚
1/31 06Z: 1˚
1/31 12Z: 0˚
1/31 18Z: -1˚
2/1 00Z: 0˚
2/1 06Z: -2˚
2/1 12Z: -3˚
2/1 18Z: -3˚
2/2 00Z: -8˚
2/2 06Z: -6˚
2/2 12Z: -8˚

Beyond this the models converged on -9˚ (which was correct) although the MOS were a good deal higher.

So basically the GFS had it correct for two days a week out from the event, then was wrong for two days, then got back in line.
 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I'll have to look but I remember having snow when most around didnt.. 

No

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No

Reading the December thread from last year maybe just missed but had some snow on the 23rd

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Reading the December thread from last year maybe just missed but had some snow on the 23rd

You got your slate wiped clean like rest of us on Christmas.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, dryslot said:

You got your slate wiped clean like rest of us on Christmas.

Maybe honestly can't remember.  I just know we had snow showers on the 23rd and the ground whitened and could of swore it lasted until Christmas.  

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, you picked the perfect time to relocate to FL...haven't missed much-

He missed 2014-15 I think.  That stings 

[wx2fish]

22 minutes ago, dryslot said:

No

Man what a brutal map. What a furnace last Dec was. Almost +7F with 0.7" snow at CON.