Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Depends on who you ask...lol

I think on a regional scale, Feb 1978 and 2013 are safely BECS level.....

[Typhoon Tip]

56 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Has any winter storm been officially classified a BECS since we began keeping records?

well... it's all a bit semantic/euphemistic and definitely subjective anyway, but "biblical" ( imho ) has to end civility as prerequisite to earn that particular declaration.  that's what a 'biblical flood and fire' is derived from -

now ...what does 'end civility' really mean?    i'm not saying a single storm could ever Book of Eli humanity... so, within fairness and confines of reality, ending civility in this context should fairly be construed as crippling all affairs down to a stand still for any significant length of time.

if that is acceptable, then the magalopolis storm of jan 1996 might qualify.  the super storm of 1993... definitely the cleveland super bomb and the feb event 2 weeks later in 1978 ... there's probably a couple of bigguns back in the day, of course ... basically, every 50 year block of history probably has a short list of them. 

the preceding is an attempt to bring something other than fan mania to the definitions -

[cleetussnow]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably Feb 1978 and Feb 2013....even Jan 2005 for the cape.

March '93 for many

[dryslot]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think on a regional scale, Feb 1978 and 2013 are safely BECS level.....

Feb 78 was not up here, More of a MECS, But Feb 2013 and maybe the one in Jan 2015 too could be considered.

[Cyclone-68]

I know for a fact the word biblical was used for the March ‘93 superstorm. When I called Accuweather (remember those days? lol) the forecaster said it 

[mreaves]

39 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For the record George is not the same as he was a few years ago.  He’s educated himself and has become a knowledgeable poster.

I think George could be considered the most improved poster over the last couple of years.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Feb 78 was not up here, More of a MECS, But Feb 2013 and maybe the one in Jan 2015 too could be considered.

Yea, I was speaking in terms of SNE.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

March '93 for many

Yea, on a national level certainly that is up there in January 1996.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah .. full disclosure, i know this thread was mainly "experimental" - and it was ...  but, about mid way since i was admittedly more thinking something other than complete bullshit for this effort, too -

thing is, we all know the index numerology/projections therein are made more useful by then looking at the spatial aspects of the super synopsis. hugely important to this latter facet, understanding/detecting subtle trends.    one of which has been this Auschwitzian dental exam of a western ridge - never seen a +2   delta pna move be so non-committal to a western n/a ridge like this before.  i'm wondering if speed in the flow this... or more phase 5 mjo that...

i don't want to instill hope, or add to the seemingly problematic d-drip mania problem with this social media engagement ... ( lol ) but, this keeps reminding me of the Boxing Day storm back in 2010's, great cosmic dildo winter for specifically Ayer, Ma ... (eh hem)   that storm was essentially dead and vanquished from the charts over a great initial look at like d8, too.  with just 42 or something hours to go ... it came all the way back to deliberately give me, personally, 2.4" of arctic dust while ingrate trolls that didn't deserve it were rewarded with blizzard b.js   

yeah... heh.  anyway, modeling standards really have steeply improved a lot in the last 12 years - not sure that is happening quite the same here.  we are not seeing a complete loss from the charts.  the vestiges of "should" happen/suggestions are still there.  so if it comes back stronger in the short game, it won't be so drastic  

but this has been a really, really lousy drug supply.  i say we switch dealers! 

If I remember correctly, that one was also very sensitive to the amplitude and position of the western Ridge

[mreaves]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Feb 78 was not up here, More of a MECS, But Feb 2013 and maybe the one in Jan 2015 too could be considered.

V-Day 2007 here.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, I was speaking in terms of SNE.

I would probably still classify the two latter systems as HECS myself being 28"+ and 30"+

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... here's one model no one probably ever even looked at .. the navgem.   the 00z solution gave a 30 hour nor-easter with about 3" of liq equivalent in mostly snow

Don’t tell George

[Typhoon Tip]

fun aside for a moment. 

i really think that wholesale s/w movement through the field - if that can slow down, this has time, and the larger implication-backing would promote going to town.  it seems the modeling history over the past few days, when it slower to eject out of the west, it seems to 'sync' with the non-linear wave function and that gives it a constructive interference - then we get the amped west solutions.

when i say that, i just mean the large scale/ pna amplitude reaches max around the same time as the s/w is actually entering the trough.  if the s/w out paces this former timing aspect, you get these flat pieces of dung

[mahk_webstah]

45 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For the record George is not the same as he was a few years ago.  He’s educated himself and has become a knowledgeable poster.

George is loved

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

If I remember correctly, that one was also very sensitive to the amplitude and position of the western Ridge

yeah ..part of why this attenuation game this time reminds me of that.   i also think the boxing day s/w came into the denser/physically realized sounding medium as a stronger wave than the assimilation, too.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would probably still classify the two latter systems as HECS myself being 28"+ and 30"+

Nah......both had more than that in hardest hit areas...talking 40"+...

[CoastalWx]

I will never be more happy to be wrong, if 12z is a decent step forward. 

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nah......both had more than that in hardest hit areas...talking 40"+...

this is probably ultimately a pointless use of energy/bandwidth   haha, but, inches of snow endowment provided by the gods of bomb masculinity doesn't mean anything if the storm doesn't know how to use it.

in other words, the actual impact has to be there.

like 20" of 33:1 pow pow is not nearly as impactful as that much snow at 11:1 .. you know?   i think the actual impact needs to be where the definition is made from

[Damage In Tolland]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fwiw I think 12z icon will be better. Tough to tell exactly being mobile. 

It’s lead the way on this. Cap tips coming from you to me 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Old runs

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

this is probably ultimately a pointless use of energy/bandwidth   haha, but, inches of snow endowment provided by the gods of bomb masculinity doesn't mean anything if the storm doesn't know how to use it.

in other words, the actual impact has to be there.

like 20" of 33:1 pow pow is not nearly as impactful as that much snow at 11:1 .. you know?   i think the actual impact needs to be where the definition is made from

Yes, I get what you mean....I def. equate it more with amount of snow, so you are correct in the literal sense.

[SouthCoastMA]

Ridge out west looks more amped at 72h on GFS. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s lead the way on this. Cap tips coming from you to me 

Not if the GFS is right. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Ridge out west looks more amped at 72h on GFS. 

Not a fan of how the s/w looks.

[MJO812]

It lost the storm lol

[dryslot]

This one is on life support on the GFS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I will never be more happy to be wrong, if 12z is a decent step forward. 

Not happening…the step forward overnight was a fake out.

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Not a fan of how the s/w looks.

Yea looks like dung at 84.. and trough looks flatter/more rounded. Guess we'll see in later panels

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Not if the GFS is right. 

It’s not . SE bias EC always in play . Ensembles