Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:03 AM, dryslot said:

Should end up being a closer whiff this run ha ha.

Baby steps

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[dryslot]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:04 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

Baby steps

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Trough was a bit sharper @H5 but not enough in the grand scheme of things, This one is on life support.

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:06 AM, dryslot said:

Trough was a bit sharper @H5 but not enough in the grand scheme of things.

Still a slight improvement, that is all that matters at this stage

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[brooklynwx99]

i mean, it’s definitely better but it’s not enough 

[Boston Bulldog]

Slight tick better at upper levels. We should know by 12z tomorrow if this is the start of a trend back or just noise. Probably the latter?

[dryslot]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:08 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

Still a slight improvement, that is all that matters at this stage

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Going to need some wholesale changes rather soon though, Have to see if the ensembles have any more amped members to the west.

[Prismshine Productions]

I almost wonder if it would be best to have Wednesday amplify and pass to our north so we get the rising heights advantage... Hmmm

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[Prismshine Productions]

Regardless, that is some really cold air coming in the weekend before Christmas

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[dryslot]

Its coming down to wave spacing really, Wouldn't have as much of an issue if Weds got out of the way.

[brooklynwx99]

the CMC getting the TPV more involved is definitely an interesting trend 

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:20 AM, dryslot said:

Its coming down to wave spacing really, Wouldn't have as much of an issue if Weds got out of the way.

Yeah, that kinda why I even thought that blurb about just getting it to our north to pull the hights up

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[dryslot]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:21 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

Yeah, that kinda why I even thought that blurb about just getting it to our north to pull the hights up

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Lower heights out ahead won't let this turn the corner soon enough.

[Prismshine Productions]

This wouldnt be fun

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[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:25 AM, dryslot said:

Lower heights out ahead won't let this turn the corner soon enough.

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NAO hurting us

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:30 AM, MJO812 said:

NAO hurting us

Yep...

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[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:30 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

Yep...

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Flow too fast

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:31 AM, MJO812 said:

Flow too fast

I had to explain it to a friend of mine yesterday

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[brooklynwx99]

GEFS shifted the trough axis west which is a legitimately nice move

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:37 AM, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS shifted the trough axis west which is a legitimately nice move

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Ukie is also closer. Gefs looks better.

Good trends tonight 

[Prismshine Productions]

[brooklynwx99]

liking the more poleward PNA. probably has to do with the increased TPV involvement

[Prismshine Productions]

Add the Euro to the slight improvement camp

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[brooklynwx99]

EPS is definitely deeper. improved from 18z

[Prismshine Productions]

Also holy crap this is COLD

[weathafella]

Euro almost always overdoes long range cold.  The only exception in my memory is the extreme cold that gave BOS its coldest reading in 65 years in February 2023.  Euro nailed that from a week or more out.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/16/2024 at 6:26 AM, weathafella said:

Euro almost always overdoes long range cold.  The only exception in my memory is the extreme cold that gave BOS its coldest reading in 65 years in February 2023.  Euro nailed that from a week or more out.

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Went below zero here at 10:30pm and finished with a low of -7.6°. For HFD that’s really impressive. Montreal Express FTW.

 

[Roger Smith]

If this thing slows down, temps won't be a problem anyway, frigid air will be in place but so far it looks like 1-3" widespread (Fri-Sat, 15-20 F) and 3-6" in down east maine, to 6-12" in NB and parts of NS, PEI. 

[binbisso]

6z gfs not there yet but improved. More tpv involvement as brooklynwx99 has implied 

[binbisso]

Icon similar at 6z

[CoastalWx]

Better moves tonight including the 6z GFS. A bit less mucking up with the srn s/w. Just not sure it will be enough or if it continues.