Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

Definitely something lurking on guidance, especially Euro. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

19 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ha ... love the suggestion for repetitious cycling   ...but that's way off

Yup, AI in particular is hitting on that.

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Definitely something lurking on guidance, especially Euro. 

06z gefs abruptly condenses the signal comparing to previous cycles, which were far more dispersed - altho did hint.  this below is a nice emergence for a 200+ range ...   this is also not too dissimilar to the 00z euro but of the two ensemble means, the 06z gefs mean was the louder beacon.   what both have in common that i really like for this range, is the continental high pressure parked over the dekotas/np region.   that's a pretty common fixture in climo for setting the stage and/or in situ to events around the ec

[40/70 Benchmark]

Looks like I may have something to write about soon. Agreed, like that +pp...pretty much textbook positioning for east coast fun and games.

[Typhoon Tip]

heh, that cfs was ginormous ... this is raging from ne va to d.e.m while this low goes down to the low 980s, from this position to the gom -   i mean that's a wow run.  we've prooobably entered the eye-candy range on this threat assessment effort.  which means ... every couple of other runs or so some model will purify the extent of the potential but obviously ... constraining one's wits and wants within the confines of conservatism ... oh who am I kidding of this group!      seriously though, it's been maybe 10 years or more (?) since we could have fun on this side of xmas.  at least we got that goin' for us

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh, that cfs was ginormous ... this is raging from ne va to d.e.m while this low goes down to the low 970s, from this position to the gom -   i mean that's a wow run.  we've prooobably entered the eye-candy range on this threat assessment effort.  which means ... ever couple of other runs or so some model will purify the extent of the potential but obviously ... constraining one's wits and wants within the confines of conservatism ... oh who am I kidding this group!      seriously though, it's been maybe 10 years or more (?) since we could have fun on this side of xmas.  at least we got that goin' for us

Pre Xmas in general? 2019.

INVO Xmas....2017.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you count November, then you could throw 2018 in....

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm not sure we have had a season that included a coastal snower INVO Xmas that went onto suck....perhaps an unwiritten rule that I should go ahead and write....ah, NVM...1997. I still think its a good batting average, though and that season is an understandable exception with the juggernaut El Nino. In fact, I have always been of the opinion that that season would have rocked with a more pedestrian ENSO.

[CoastalWx]

Toss GEFS

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss GEFS

?

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you count November, then you could throw 2018 in....

mmm  yeah i get it, but this winter seems more like a front loaded one - if perhaps still mutilated by cc in a way ... but that's what it is.   it's still different than getting those weird late october and november one shot deals that didn't really come in the same mise en science/appeal.  

lol.  that's obviously about as subjective an opinion as there could ever be biased so ... not something i want to get my ears pinned back over or whatever. 

i just get the impression of    (season committed to a winter hemisphere + cc quotient)/2  = still able to represent

[40/70 Benchmark]

Gonna go out on a limb and say that we have suceeded in getting the Grinch to grant us a holiday reprieve by showing up early...pretty solid cross ensemble convergence on a nice pattern around the holiday, with the Canadian being the most subdued. Hopefully we get the nice pattern to set in earlier than I had expected.

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mmm  yeah i get it but this winter seems more like a front loaded one - if perhaps still mutilated by cc in way ... it's still different than getting those weird late october and november one shots that didn't really come in the same mise en science/appeal.  

lol.  that's obviously about as subjective an opinion as there could ever be biased so ... not something i want to get my ears pinned back over or whatever. 

i just get the impression of    (season committed to a winter hemisphere + cc quotient)/2  = still able to represent

No, I totally agree and was thinking the same as I typed....I resonded in a very literal manner. This is more like a CC modified 2010 type of start, potentially. 2/3 of those 3 seasons I mentioned were pretty discrete, well timed gifts from above. 2017 being the exception...that was a great season, aside from the Feb bloodbath.

[Typhoon Tip]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Toss GEFS

well yeah.   as is?  of course...  we toss everything.   the usage is a point of principle and exposing where the emergence should be.

which btw, i still feel the 20th -23rd is the hot period within the 17-24th in general.

by the way ... the gaga range suggests we reload between xmas and ny. 

[Typhoon Tip]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, I totally agree and was thinking the same as I typed....I resonded in a very literal manner. This is more like a CC modified 2010 type of start, potentially. 2/3 of those 3 seasons I mentioned were pretty discrete, well timed gifts from above. 2017 being the exception...that was a great season, aside from the Feb bloodbath.

yeah, 2010 was an amazing dec - we are not there ..yet.   obviously.  but maybe we can end up there if perhaps skewed timing-wise between late dec and jan ?   just conjecture -

i remember making a run at my personal all-time snow pack depth of 36" in 2010 ... i've seen that now 3 times, including and since 1995/'96      the only time 36" was beaten was 2015, when between that 4th and 5th event we nicked 40" !   but in 2010 i measured 35.5" as an average when i was geeking out ...  

[CoastalWx]

24 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

?

 

13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well yeah.   as is?  of course...  we toss everything.   the usage is a point of principle and exposing where the emergence should be.

which btw, i still feel the 20th -23rd is the hot period within the 17-24th in general.

by the way ... the gaga range suggests we reload between xmas and ny. 

It was a joke with the mean over our fannies. 

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well yeah.   as is?  of course...  we toss everything.   the usage is a point of principle and exposing where the emergence should be.

which btw, i still feel the 20th -23rd is the hot period within the 17-24th in general.

by the way ... the gaga range suggests we reload between xmas and ny. 

I pretty much agree, but I'm reluctant to say much more until things get closer.

[40/70 Benchmark]

25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah, 2010 was an amazing dec - we are not there ..yet.   obviously.  but maybe we can end up there if perhaps skewed timing-wise between late dec and jan ?   just conjecture -

i remember making a run at my personal all-time snow pack depth of 36" in 2010 ... i've seen that now 3 times, including and since 1995/'96      the only time 36" was beaten was 2015, when between that 4th and 5th event we nicked 40" !   but in 2010 i measured 35.5" as an average when i was geeking out ...  

That is the path for me to bust warm in Dec....have the January flip occur the holiday week, which has always been on the table...I just erred on the side of caution after being burned so many times recently. Having it be a timing error is much more palatable from a forecasting perspective, as well, rather than totally botching the pattern.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Feb 2015 is my record for depth in Wilmington...high 30's. Safely over 3', but under 40". I'd say second was January 1996 and 3rd January 2011.

[mreaves]

47 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna go out on a limb and say that we have suceeded in getting the Grinch to grant us a holiday reprieve

Well now you've certainly jinxed us.  You might as well have just gone out and bought a snowmobile, snowblower and new $100k plow truckl all at once!

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Feb 2015 is my record for depth in Wilmington...high 30's. Safely over 3', but under 40". I'd say second was January 1996 and 3rd January 2011.

Feb 15 obviously for me, but Jan 96 and Jan 2005 were real darn close, but I'd give the edge to Jan 96 by a few inches. Jan 2011 deserves mention too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Would not mind a Dec 92 type storm at all 

[Layman]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gonna go out on a limb and say that we have suceeded in getting the Grinch to grant us a holiday reprieve by showing up early...pretty solid cross ensemble convergence on a nice pattern around the holiday, with the Canadian being the most subdued. Hopefully we get the nice pattern to set in earlier than I had expected.

From you lips to Tip's nips (or however that old saying goes,) I believe you've just taken 100% sole and full responsibility if a Grinch storm does in fact happen.

Let's hope kdxken doesn't add your limb to the wood pile before 12/26 

[brooklynwx99]

this will do it. that +PNA is bonkers

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this will do it. that +PNA is bonkers

man, that ggem 12z run was a monster.   it's a mix to rain event for most, ...thus, known contribution sources are about to swoop in, drop trow', and hang their own bomb on the effort, but the magnitude both spatially and in depth of that cyclone tunneling up the hudson like that is probably among the deepest in history to have taken that route.

what's happening in that solution is that the model is attempting to more proficiently phase, but in not quite doing so proficiently enough, the low gets foisted out ahead.   there's also less +pp situ n comparing other guidance/run cycles...

just another hour in the saga I suppose.  but one should appreciated this beast, meteorologically

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

man, that ggem 12z run was a monster.   it's a mix to rain event for most, ...thus, known contribution sources are about to swoop in, drop trow', and hang their own bomb on the effort, but the magnitude both spatially and in depth of that cyclone tunneling up the hudson like that is probably among the deepest in history to have taken that route.

what's happening in that solution is that the model is attempting to more proficiently phase, but in not quite doing so proficiently enough, the low gets foisted out ahead.   there's also less +pp situ n comparing other guidance/run cycles...

just another hour in the saga I suppose.  but one should appreciated this beast, meteorologically

 

Of course its the CMC sniffing that out...just like it did the western PV lobe phase 2 years ago, which ruined the pre xmas blizzard.

[brooklynwx99]

i don't think one could draw up a more ideal +PNA

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

i don't think one could draw up a more ideal +PNA

A beaut

[ORH_wxman]

There’s at least some support for that follow-up storm. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Ain't no hate on a Rockies ridge.