Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Prismshine Productions]

ECMFW sucks with the MJO.

Here is the GFS for comparison

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[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Here is the GFS for comparison

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Even if it did go into the MC...may not matter much with the GLAAM forecast to remain high in conjunction with better climo. We have been in the MC most of December. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, dryslot said:

What can am I kicking? Expected a shitty December and below average seasonal snowfall across the board, but I'd rather take my chances at peak climo than Nodecember.

[Prismshine Productions]

What can am I kicking? Expect below average snowfall across the board, but I'd rather take my chances at peak climo than Nodecember.

Worse that last year?

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[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

Worse that last year?

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No. Better.

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What can am I kicking? Expected a shitty December and below average seasonal snowfall across the board, but I'd rather take my chances at peak climo than Nodecember.

You just punted December, No?

[Prismshine Productions]

End of the Nam, that s/w over Florida is hauling and will be offshore by the time our vort for this weekend gets going

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[Prismshine Productions]

At the plate: 0z ICONic

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[40/70 Benchmark]

32 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You just punted December, No?

Yea, but I never expected much...my forecast was essentially a punt.

[CoastalWx]

It’s much more acceptable if December was a torch. Here we are with some decent cold and still screwed. That’s what gets me. 
 

Hope for a good 00z suite. 

[Prismshine Productions]

I see you Icon

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[Prismshine Productions]

Icon caves to the southern ots solution, batter out

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[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s much more acceptable if December was a torch. Here we are with some decent cold and still screwed. That’s what gets me. 
 

Hope for a good 00z suite. 

The only luck the last few years have been bad luck, Just can't seem to get one to work out in every ones favor.

[Prismshine Productions]

It’s much more acceptable if December was a torch. Here we are with some decent cold and still screwed. That’s what gets me. 
 
Hope for a good 00z suite. 

At least it feels like legit winter cold

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[CoastalWx]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

At least it feels like legit winter cold

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Yay

[brooklynwx99]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Icon caves to the southern ots solution, batter out

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it actually has an IVT over LI

[Prismshine Productions]

it actually has an IVT over LI

Which does us zero favors

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[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s much more acceptable if December was a torch. Here we are with some decent cold and still screwed. That’s what gets me. 
 

Hope for a good 00z suite. 

I totally disagree. I’d take cold and dry in a heartbeat over another torch for Christmas. 

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The only luck the last few years have been bad luck, Just can't seem to get one to work out in every ones favor.

Yeah…as cautiously optimistic as I am overall, if we can’t produce anything meaningful down here during a decent December, I’d find it hard to believe that next month is anything but more of the same, pretty 500 and MJO depictions be damned. 

You have to produce when the windows are open. Not even getting contact when you have an 88mph fastball in the strike zone tells me everything I need to know. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Yeah…as cautiously optimistic as I am overall, if we can’t produce anything meaningful down here during a decent December, I’d find it hard to believe that next month is anything but more of the same, pretty 500 and MJO depictions be damned. 
You have to produce when the windows are open. Not even getting contact when you have an 88mph fastball in the strike zone tells me everything I need to know. 

Nah, we getting contact, but mere pedestrian infield groundouts with an occasional bunt single

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[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I totally disagree. I’d take cold and dry in a heartbeat over another torch for Christmas. 

Yeah…as cautiously optimistic as I am overall, if we can’t produce anything meaningful down here during a decent December, I’d find it hard to believe that next month is anything but more of the same, pretty 500 and MJO depictions be damned. 

You have to produce when the windows are open. Not even getting contact when you have an 88mph fastball in the strike zone tells me everything I need to know. 

My point is that unlike recent Decembers that torched, we are -2 and still porked.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

My point is that unlike recent Decembers that torched, we are -2 and still porked.

regression to the mean is a bitch, isn’t it

[Prismshine Productions]

My point is that unlike recent Decembers that torched, we are -2 and still porked.

I rather it be -2 around Christmas than feeling like a year long summer, you can only have so many 70 and 80 degree Christmases before feeling like you living in bloody Australia

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[Typhoon Tip]

new gfs 

right off the bat this run has a 00z chart 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

regression to the mean is a bitch, isn’t it

It’s beyond that. It’s mutilation.

[Prismshine Productions]

Something tells me this run is gonna suck...

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[WxWatcher007]

16 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Nah, we getting contact, but mere pedestrian infield groundouts with an occasional bunt single

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Up there, yes. I’m not sure 1.7” here when my climo is ~11” for December is real contact by this point in the month.

16 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My point is that unlike recent Decembers that torched, we are -2 and still porked.

Yeah. It sucks. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Something tells me this run is gonna suck...

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Wednesday coming in more amped isn’t a good start 

[Prismshine Productions]

Wednesday coming in more amped isn’t a good start 

Exactly my point

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[vegan_edible]

poof

[dryslot]

Should end up being a closer whiff this run ha ha.