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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

Snowcrazed71
Snowcrazed71

Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL   

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40/70 Benchmark

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, weathafella said:

It nailed Boston and the immediate area inside 128 pretty good with 18+ in many areas including mine at the time and probably where i currently live.

Yes, It did, but You’re a rare one for that though. Big huge sub zone of a couple hundred miles in between the NYC/NJ Jack.   The Bigger point was,  it was a lost cause for a long while, right up until it wasn’t.  
 

NWS even said to disregard the GFS run when it suddenly shifted it back west out of the blue, to hit, and said It was  a spurious run due to convective feedback issues. Some crazy shit that was.  

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes, It did, but You’re a rare one for that though. Big huge sub zone of a couple hundred miles in between the NYC/NJ Jack.   The Bigger point was,  it was a lost cause for a long while, right up until it wasn’t.  
 

NWS even said to disregard the GFS run when it suddenly shifted it back west out of the blue, to hit, and said It was  a spurious run due to convective feedback issues. Some crazy shit that was.  

Too bad you weren’t around then.  Tip melted violently.  Only surpassed by his Valentine’s Day melt.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Correct. You can’t amplify a shortwave diving down when there’s a southern stream vort ahead of it keeping the downstream heights lower…it prevents the essential downstream ridging to occur in front of out main shortwave that is needed to create a coastal in this setup. So we either need to it speed up and get out of the way (ICON sort of showed this) or slow down enough to get captured by the northern stream. Otherwise you just get destructive interference. 

That area of vorticity in the southeast might play a role in antecedent downstream ridging, but to me the bigger factor is to the north. The key trof/shortwave diving SE from the Dakotas towards the Ohio valley has to be on the downstream side of the longwave trof and/or the polar jet trof up in Canada for it to deepen and take on a negative tilt.

On the GFS, the main shortwave is on the upstream side of the polar jet  trof until too late, delaying the phasing process and subsequent cyclogenesis until the wave is well east of our longitude. On the ICON, and especially on a few wrapped up runs over the past few days, the key shortwave was positioned upstream of the polar shortwave diving sse-ward through Ontario. This timing and positioning of waves is key to amplification.

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  • Typhoon Tip changed the title to Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

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