Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Typhoon Tip]

hm   sufficed it is to say … this is going to morph in future runs. 

that’s an unlikely stall position up there east of Freeport maine when that structure so deep and cutting off over ne PA

The problem with this run was that it didn’t have quite enough dpva as it was first amplifying so that the low took too long to get started but if we just get a little bit more dpva earlier on in that sequence and all that ends up over block Island

[Go Kart Mozart]

I don't see any changes, do you?

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:31 AM, Go Kart Mozart said:

I don't see any changes, do you?

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nice 931mb low in the north pacific

[Go Kart Mozart]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:33 AM, ineedsnow said:

nice 931mb low in the north pacific

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Upon further reflection, the changes east of Greenland might be the most significant....edit...make that the disappearance of the TX Gulf coast trough.

[dryslot]

Higher heights over the chimney and a trough digging further south with that northern stream vort will allow more ridging out ahead is what we need to see going forward.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm fine with where this sits right now.

[vegan_edible]

lets just have this be the final solution and we can all be happy. the end

[ROOSTA]

No complaints here. I get NOTHING
Now let's get this to carve out a hole in the atmosphere, let's say at about 40/70. LOL  

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:40 AM, ROOSTA said:

No complaints here. I get NOTHING
Now let's get this to carve out a hole in the atmosphere, let's say at about 40/70. LOL  

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As in the Lat/Lon coordinates, not MBY lol

[dryslot]

0z Euro slays CNE/NNE on the 21-22nd.

[ineedsnow]

Euro develops a little late but crushes 

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:01 AM, dryslot said:

Euro slays CNE/NNE on the 21-22nd.

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about a foot here

[dryslot]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:02 AM, ineedsnow said:

about a foot here

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A bit sooner on development and its a regional hit, Several runs back it was a mid atlantic system.

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:04 AM, dryslot said:

A bit sooner on development and its a regional hit, Several runs back it was a mid atlantic system.

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Is there anything that gets into

southern New England

[dryslot]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:12 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is there anything that gets into

southern New England

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Warm where you are But west of there, Yes.

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:12 AM, Snowcrazed71 said:

Is there anything that gets into

southern New England

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next 7 days but most falls with the storm next weekend

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:17 AM, ineedsnow said:

next 7 days but most falls with the storm next weekend

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Thank God for that antecedent airmass that has fueled group masturbation all week...I never would have scored that inch on this solution. 

[8611Blizz]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:17 AM, ineedsnow said:

next 7 days but most falls with the storm next weekend

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That map is a summary of most of the last 4 seasons around here.  The amounts change elsewhere but the coast is spot on...

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2024 at 6:22 AM, 8611Blizz said:

That map is a summary of most of the last 4 seasons around here.  The amounts change elsewhere but the coast is spot on...

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Yup..always like 7mi north of my house. I'll bet something like that works out.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Meh. Northern streams tend to develop later than what guidance suggests so having these cne/nne solutions at d6/7 doesn’t bode well for sne. 

[CoastalWx]

Euro has a strong s/w with a stronger parent low initially, but that leads to a nipple low into SNE. Need to see the parent low weaker and dig this a bit more south. 
 

GFS is weaker, but doesn’t get going until well offshore. Energy is more disjointed on GFS.

[Kitz Craver]

Yeah GFS looked like a clipper basically 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:01 PM, Kitz Craver said:

Yeah GFS looked like a clipper basically 

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Would rather the gfs, but 6z kind of made a step to euro. Really need the offshore low to blow up otherwise it’s a little mild for eastern areas.

[Damage In Tolland]

It does appear we have ourselves a snowstorm next weekend. Just hope the torch holds off until after Christmas to keep it white. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:15 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It does appear we have ourselves a snowstorm next weekend. Just hope the torch holds off until after Christmas to keep it white. 

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It does? Beer?

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Would rather the gfs, but 6z kind of made a step to euro. Really need the offshore low to blow up otherwise it’s a little mild for eastern areas.

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GEFS is actually a lot more amped. seems like the OP is being erratic 

[CoastalWx]

6z GEFS have a decent look. Low really intensifies offshore (albeit a little too far east) and high does not retreat. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:20 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

GEFS is actually a lot more amped. seems like the OP is being erratic 

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Ninja’d haha. I’ll take the 6z GEFs look.

[Kitz Craver]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Would rather the gfs, but 6z kind of made a step to euro. Really need the offshore low to blow up otherwise it’s a little mild for eastern areas.

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Helluva antecedent 

[Kitz Craver]

  On 12/15/2024 at 12:22 PM, CoastalWx said:

Ninja’d haha. I’ll take the 6z GEFs look.

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Oh wow, that’s a nice signal offshore there