Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Blue hill jack?

They probably have at least 2 now

[WxWatcher007]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice bump west on 12z GFS

Hell of a trend right up to game time. 

[mitchnick]

North

[Go Kart Mozart]

Delaware Valley starting to fill in now.

[Prismshine Productions]

Run from it
Dread on it
Hate on it
NAM scored the coup...

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Congrats SEMA

[mitchnick]

28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

KDOX radar. It's in Delaware.

Interesting precip movements around DCA/BWI.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=LWX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[Damage In Tolland]

Nice 2-4 event River East . 1-3” west. Unless there’s more bumps to come 

[SouthCoastMA]

HERPES with a tick NW with CCB, not quite the NAM but a nod in that direction

[SouthCoastMA]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

They probably have at least 2 now

At this rate 6-8" for them easily.

I should have worked at my Canton office today, right near Blue Hill

[Spaizzo]

Light snow falling in Milford ct right now


.

[CoastalWx]

Stuff off the water is really filling in now. Didn't expect that. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS huge jump NW for eastern areas

[MegaMike]

At this time, nobody should be relying too heavily on global (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) or regional (RGEM 10km, RAP 13km, NAM 12km, etc...) modeling systems. Stick with the mesos (HRRR 3km, WRF ARW, WRF ARW2, NAM 3km, etc...) and rely on data assimilation/nowcasting to follow any trends.

That said, the 12z HREF (ensemble of mesos) increased mean snowfall for most areas in eastern MA and all of RI (compared to last night at 00z). It also expands accumulating snowfall westward.... More snow may be falling after this, but I'm too impatient to wait for the next panel... Follow it here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne&rd=20241220&rt=1200

[brooklynwx99]

yeah, this is definitely more of a signal than whatever the NAM is showing. PVA is more NW

[8611Blizz]

Christmas is saved !

[cut]

The visibility looking across Pequanic valley is actually coming down!!! This is a great surprise!!! Hoping for the first white Christmas in a looooooong time.

[ORH_wxman]

RAP small tick west again....still not NAM-esque, but it's pretty solid advisory east of 495.

[Allsnow]

[WinterWolf]

As has been said…You just never know.  Perfect example of that with this whole thing.  Snow on the way. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, MegaMike said:

At this time, nobody should be relying too heavily on global (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) or regional (RGEM 10km, RAP 13km, NAM 12km, etc...) modeling systems. Stick with the mesos (HRRR 3km, WRF ARW, WRF ARW2, NAM 3km, etc...) and rely on data assimilation/nowcasting to follow any trends.

That said, the 12z HREF (ensemble of mesos) increased mean snowfall for most areas in eastern MA and all of RI (compared to last night at 00z). It also expands accumulating snowfall westward.... More snow may be falling after this, but I'm too impatient to wait for the next panel... Follow it here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne&rd=20241220&rt=1200

 

I tend to agree ... i outlined a few meteorological aspects a while ago that goes into the why-for the (bold ^ ) tact is advisable. 

altho, i do suggest the NAM physics are very good for these low level hydrostatic gradient deals - just to add.  the gradient/steep elevating frontal slope enhances rising motion along the up-glide that's triggered under what looks like might be under done q-g forcing in that area.  we'll see..    but whether this means more low sfc pressure resulting, farther nw of previous guidance clusters or not, there's classical mechanics of qpf blossoming between central jersey to se nh. 

also noticing a 300 mb entrance fan to assist with that over central ne

 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian not super impressive at 12z

[brooklynwx99]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I tend to agree ... i outlined a few meteorological aspects a while ago that goes into the why-for the (bold ^ ) tact is advisable. 

altho, i do suggest the NAM physics are very good for these low level hydrostatic gradient deals - just to add.  the gradient/steep elevating frontal slope enhances rising motion along the up-glide that's triggered under what looks like might be under done q-g forcing in that area.  we'll see..    but whether this means more low sfc pressure resulting, farther nw of previous guidance clusters or not, there's classical mechanics of qpf blossoming between central jersey to se nh. 

also noticing a 300 mb exit fan to assist with that over central ne

 

it's funny, I know you've been mentioning this, but the GFS presentation is what one would "expect" given the synoptics. just odd that we would have had to wait this long for it

[MegaMike]

43 minutes ago, MegaMike said:

At this time, nobody should be relying too heavily on global (GFS, CMC, ECMWF) or regional (RGEM 10km, RAP 13km, NAM 12km, etc...) modeling systems. Stick with the mesos (HRRR 3km, WRF ARW, WRF ARW2, NAM 3km, etc...) and rely on data assimilation/nowcasting to follow any trends.

That said, the 12z HREF (ensemble of mesos) increased mean snowfall for most areas in eastern MA and all of RI (compared to last night at 00z). It also expands accumulating snowfall westward.... More snow may be falling after this, but I'm too impatient to wait for the next panel... Follow it here: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/?model=href&product=snowfall_024h_mean&sector=ne&rd=20241220&rt=1200

Next panel:

[kdxken]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

As has been said…You just never know.  Perfect example of that with this whole thing.  Snow on the way. 

And to think yesterday people were mocking you relentlessly. Just goes to show you you never know.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, kdxken said:

And to think yesterday people were mocking you relentlessly. Just goes to show you you never know.

Lol

[CoastalWx]

The stuff off NJ weakened a bit as modeled. The earlier stuff off DOX will kiss ern LI. I'm just not sure how far west it will get. CT might need that weenie finger near BDR.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The stuff off NJ weakened a bit as modeled. The earlier stuff off DOX will kiss ern LI. I'm just not sure how far west it will get. CT might need that weenie finger near BDR.

There is still a lot of meh guidance out there. I guess everyone is going NAM 100%.
 

lots of high fives for something that hasn’t happened yet 

[Spaizzo]

Snowing moderately in ansonia now 31 degrees


.