Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Go Kart Mozart]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

My focus is on the stuff well east of DOX. That will be the meat of the event. A lot of the models slide that east. I can't buy the NAM right now.

When I look up DOX, I get Dongarra, Australia?

[cut]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

That's a drone swarm, not precip.

LOL - Have there been any here in T Town?? Maybe a snow walk along Pequanic later - it's been years since I took a snow walk down there.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

When I look up DOX, I get Dongarra, Australia?

DIX

[SouthCoastMA]

The NAM has this heavy convective looking blob come over the area around 7-8pm. Maybe that's part of the CCB, but other models haven't really had that. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Go Kart Mozart said:

When I look up DOX, I get Dongarra, Australia?

KDOX radar. It's in Delaware.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

When I look up DOX, I get Dongarra, Australia?

He meant DIX...KDIX is the Mt. Holly radar down near philly

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

My focus is on the stuff well east of DOX. That will be the meat of the event. A lot of the models slide that east. I can't buy the NAM right now.

Trajectory on that slug is on a line just making it to you..  That stuff on NJ coast is what could give much of CT a surprise few inches

[cut]

Isn't this encouraging?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

[dryslot]

Dix Dox

[cut]

Just now, cut said:

Isn't this encouraging?

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

At least for eastern areas - I remain a little optimistic for at least a Christmas coating here in wester CT.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Trajectory on that slug is on a line just making it to you..  That stuff on NJ coast is what could give much of CT a surprise few inches

Yeah it’s heading NNE

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Trajectory on that slug is on a line just making it to you..  That stuff on NJ coast is what could give much of CT a surprise few inches

We'll want to see the stuff nea rthe NJ shore start blossoming more to the north and northeast if something close to the NAM is correct....it actually had that stuff a little further inland than radar shows right now

 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

He meant DIX...KDIX is the Mt. Holly radar down near philly

Jack Dix?

[cut]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yeah it’s heading NNE

This shows a lot of what is going on:

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/sector_band.php?sat=G16&sector=ne&band=GEOCOLOR&length=12

[Typhoon Tip]

mm  i get a suspicious vibe that the models are underdone with the vorticity node that appears to be oriented over  w/sw pa this hour.  it's trundling east via both vis and ir ( having trouble finding a good wv source for some reason ) and as that cyclonic rotational mechanic encroaches upon the coast ... ee.   as i was saying above, there's a pig ton of "uncounted for" instability/potential between cm and cc, so there could and probably should have been more there - 

yeah you know the stuff along nj shore that folks are mentioning is like that region's so sensy to detonating that it's metaphorically sizzling already.  this will be fun to check in on during the day see how these obs resolve. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We'll want to see the stuff nea rthe NJ shore start blossoming more to the north and northeast if something close to the NAM is correct....it actually had that stuff a little further inland than radar shows right now

 

 

Ya a bit off on that It's by far the closest with western and northern extent however..  Just as you wished, it's starting to blossom inland into NJ .. Looks like legit snow will be here within the hour.. 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

mm  i get a suspicious vibe that the models are underdone with the vorticity node that appears to be oriented over  w/sw pa this hour.  it's trundling east via both vis and ir ( having trouble finding a good wv source for some reason ) and as that cyclonic rotational mechanic encroaches upon the coast ... ee.   as i was saying above, there's a pig ton of "uncounted for" instability/potential between cm and cc, so there could and probably should have been more there - 

yeah you know the stuff along nj shore that folks are mentioning is like that region's so sensy to detonating that it's metaphorically sizzling already.  this will be fun to check in on during the day see how these obs resolve. 

This is actually a decnet freebie one from RAP

 

https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CONUS&itype=C10&size=large&endDate=20241220&endTime=-1&duration=3

[cut]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is actually a decnet freebie one from RAP

 

https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CONUS&itype=C10&size=large&endDate=20241220&endTime=-1&duration=3

It looks like it want to go negative in that.

[cut]

flakes again here in Trumbull

[UnitedWx]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

DIX

Oh come now, be nice to the weenies...

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This is actually a decnet freebie one from RAP

 

https://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=CONUS&itype=C10&size=large&endDate=20241220&endTime=-1&duration=3

yeah thx Will

that confirms my idea there - as far as i can tell... there's obviously a jet streak running out s of that central axis of rotation, again ... roughly sw pa, but there is sooo much potential along that axis between cape may and the waters s of cape code that i'm curious about that eddy mechanic traversing over that region.   the left entrance of the jet max (s) may be more activating of cyclogen response rather than being completely guided by the right side/entrance region like the globals

[MJO812]

Starting to snow here in Brooklyn down here

[Allsnow]

 

[CoastalWx]

GFS is west. CCB into ern and se areas.

[Typhoon Tip]

oh, there's a obs thread ... i guess we should move all this over there?  

whatever i guess.  

Will, does that rad up date in this frame or do you have to post that -

[ORH_wxman]

Nice bump west on 12z GFS

[rimetree]

Too bad we can't get that track a little more NE vs. ENE

[CoastalWx]

Man that is close to pound town at BOS.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice bump west on 12z GFS

 

[SouthCoastMA]

Blue hill jack?