Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

As a Pro MET, what does your knowledge and gut tell you about the upper air set up, along with sat and ir?  Modeling has been atrocious for a week with this thing. 

I still think RI, E MA and SE MA are likely in for a solid advisory snow… the NAM where advisory snow gets into NYC with warning snow into E CT? bit rich

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Snower is coming for everyone east and not including me, folks 

sure looks that way ...

[Sey-Mour Snow]

DIX radar giving the bullish guidance some credence.. That stuff is headed straight for Western areas and points east 

[ORH_wxman]

Here's WV loop....tried to optimize it so it will fit on here otherwise it was like 6mb of space.

 

[CoastalWx]

Man these setups make me nervous. I'm so close to either some slop or a good pummeling. 

[CoastalWx]

Little weenie low. Although stuff east of NJ is developing. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man these setups make me nervous. I'm so close to either some slop or a good pummeling. 

I honestly think verbatim you’d be okay if it’s anything worth writing home about.

If the NAM was right I could see like Norton Easton area doing really well.

[Prismshine Productions]

NW side of the precip shield is being sneaky, nothing on radar but I am already at a coating

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Spaizzo]

For what it’s worth we had a quick snow shower of fine flakes for about two minutes down here in ansonia lol


.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I honestly think verbatim you’d be okay if it’s anything worth writing home about.

If the NAM was right I could see like Norton Easton area doing really well.

It's going to need to pound until the CF slips through. Otherwise it won't be much. So basically CCB or a C-1" after CF passes through. 

[CoastalWx]

Very little change on Reggie. Maybe slightly NW.

[cut]

56 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Thank you NAM..I’ll take the 6”. 

ill take my 4!!!!!

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Little weenie low. Although stuff east of NJ is developing. 

That's been modeled west of that convection, The question is how far east it gets as it gains lat.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Very little change on Reggie. Maybe slightly NW.

seems like the smallest tic to me / ya its negligible just noise, almost exactly the same .. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

ICON likes the Fall River/New Bedford area

[cut]

3 minutes ago, Spaizzo said:

For what it’s worth we had a quick snow shower of fine flakes for about two minutes down here in ansonia lol


.

Just walked the Pequanic rail trail with the dog and it was spitting little flakes

[40/70 Benchmark]

Snowing steadily in Chelsea, but not sticking well...sweet spot was about Everett...bit cooler and cars covered. Then hit Medford and bare ground..hardly snowing 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Reggie is pretty meh. NAM twins are likely very out to lunch 

[Typhoon Tip]

i understand why the nam is doing this and i suggest folks take it more seriously - guarded, but seriously.

firstly, from a purely/personal experience with this guidance in the operational usage ...it is not as bad as reputation/court of public abuse letting, at time frames < 30 hours

but, that aside ... what i am about to say is no analog, but this is 'circumstantially' beginning to remind me of dec 2005, when this model's forefather version smoked all other guidance in depicting a 'nj model low' type of detonation, where the other guidance' were se of it.

the reason it did that is because of the low level thermal packing that axists along an axis from roughly cape may nj to just se of cape cod.  

the analysis this morning indicates an intense horizontal temperature gradient, which is likely collocated with an actual hydrostatic thickness wall along or near that same axis.  as the wind/difluence mechanics approach from the west above that axis, the right entrance of the mid/ua acceleration is likely to enhance systemic up glide along that elevated frontal slope, a slope that is unusually steep.  that angle of rise then makes the pseudo adiabatic process very efficient .. increasing buoyancy, which fees back positively concentrating cyclogen more nw of guidance' that may be challenged to resolve this.

- this type of smaller scaled circumstance, overall, is something the nam is uniquely qualified to handle.    not intending to go completely with the nam ... but the above is the type of correction that requires being nearly on top of the event in order to "see" these physics - they almost need to exist before that correction occurs, because the global models seem to have a weakness in the arena of effectively setting the table with these discrete environmental aspects.   ... short term/now-cast

[CoastalWx]

HRRR with a shift east with the heavies. 

[CoastalWx]

Seems like a weird shift.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Seems like a weird shift.

Wait an hour... it will have something different

[SouthCoastMA]

Almost 40 here. Either the NAM is right, or its basically a Coating-1" here. I've lived here long enough to know that snow has a difficult time accumulating in December without heavy rates or an impressive airmass in place.  This might be the storm that the NAM gets it's annual heave into the model dumpster. I'm not making any proclamations yet though..leaving room for Tip to be onto something. 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, SouthCoastMA said:

Almost 40 here. Either the NAM is right, or its basically a Coating-1" here. I've lived here long enough to know that snow has a difficult time accumulating in December without an impressive airmass in place.  This might be the storm that the NAM gets it's annual heave into the model dumpster. 

 

That's what I am worried about too. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i understand why the nam is doing this and i suggest folks take it more seriously - guarded, but seriously.

firstly, from a purely/personal experience with this guidance in the operational usage ...it is not as bad as reputation/court of public abuse letting, at time frames < 30 hours

but, that aside ... what i am about to say is no analog, but this is 'circumstantially' beginning to remind me of dec 2005, when this model's forefather version smoked all other guidance in depicting a 'nj model low' type of detonation, where the other guidance' were se of it.

the reason it did that is because of the low level thermal packing that axists along an axis from roughly cape may nj to just se of cape cod.  

the analysis this morning indicates an intense horizontal temperature gradient, which is likely collocated with an actual hydrostatic thickness wall along or near that same axis.  as the wind/difluence mechanics approach from the west, the right entrance of the mid/ua acceleration is likely to enhance systemic upglide along that elevated frontal slow that exists from the ekman termination/sfc to the 850 mb, a slope that is unusually steep.  that angle of rise then make the pseudo adiabatic process very efficient

- this type of smaller scaled circumstance, overall, is something the nam is uniquely qualified to handle.    not intending to go completely with the nam ... but the above is the type of correction that requires being nearly on top of the event in order to "see" these physics - they almost need to exist before that correction occurs, because the global models seem to have a weakness in the arena of effectively setting the table with these discrete environmental aspects.   ... short term/now-cast

10am radar obs look closest to NAM's FWIW

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR with a shift east with the heavies. 

It seriously gives me whiplash with it's low placement from run to run. 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

HRRR with a shift east with the heavies. 

we're probably about as far west as this system is going to 'correct' ?  

it's fine...  for me anyway.   take 20 or even 30% off the top of the nam is still a relative win for this event considering where it was 24 hours ago in guidance.  but, i outlined some of the physical processes that i consider as instrumental in why we got this late west fix on things...  and yes, the nam may be perhaps too efficient.  

looking at sat and pressure tendency metric/obs it seems more of a nj model low has some early indication here.  we'll see

[ORH_wxman]

14z RAP came a tick west with the CCB....still not biting on NAM-esque type solution.

[Go Kart Mozart]

23 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

DIX radar giving the bullish guidance some credence.. That stuff is headed straight for Western areas and points east 

That's a drone swarm, not precip.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

10am radar obs look closest to NAM's FWIW

My focus is on the stuff well east of DOX. That will be the meat of the event. A lot of the models slide that east. I can't buy the NAM right now.