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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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brooklynwx99

brooklynwx99

Posted
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  On 12/20/2024 at 2:43 PM, WinterWolf said:

As a Pro MET, what does your knowledge and gut tell you about the upper air set up, along with sat and ir?  Modeling has been atrocious for a week with this thing. 

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I still think RI, E MA and SE MA are likely in for a solid advisory snow… the NAM where advisory snow gets into NYC with warning snow into E CT? bit rich

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dendrite
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To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

Snowcrazed71
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Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL   

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TauntonBlizzard2013

TauntonBlizzard2013

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  On 12/20/2024 at 2:48 PM, CoastalWx said:

Man these setups make me nervous. I'm so close to either some slop or a good pummeling. 

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I honestly think verbatim you’d be okay if it’s anything worth writing home about.

If the NAM was right I could see like Norton Easton area doing really well.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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  On 12/20/2024 at 2:51 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

I honestly think verbatim you’d be okay if it’s anything worth writing home about.

If the NAM was right I could see like Norton Easton area doing really well.

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It's going to need to pound until the CF slips through. Otherwise it won't be much. So basically CCB or a C-1" after CF passes through. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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i understand why the nam is doing this and i suggest folks take it more seriously - guarded, but seriously.

firstly, from a purely/personal experience with this guidance in the operational usage ...it is not as bad as reputation/court of public abuse letting, at time frames < 30 hours

but, that aside ... what i am about to say is no analog, but this is 'circumstantially' beginning to remind me of dec 2005, when this model's forefather version smoked all other guidance in depicting a 'nj model low' type of detonation, where the other guidance' were se of it.

the reason it did that is because of the low level thermal packing that axists along an axis from roughly cape may nj to just se of cape cod.  

the analysis this morning indicates an intense horizontal temperature gradient, which is likely collocated with an actual hydrostatic thickness wall along or near that same axis.  as the wind/difluence mechanics approach from the west above that axis, the right entrance of the mid/ua acceleration is likely to enhance systemic up glide along that elevated frontal slope, a slope that is unusually steep.  that angle of rise then makes the pseudo adiabatic process very efficient .. increasing buoyancy, which fees back positively concentrating cyclogen more nw of guidance' that may be challenged to resolve this.

- this type of smaller scaled circumstance, overall, is something the nam is uniquely qualified to handle.    not intending to go completely with the nam ... but the above is the type of correction that requires being nearly on top of the event in order to "see" these physics - they almost need to exist before that correction occurs, because the global models seem to have a weakness in the arena of effectively setting the table with these discrete environmental aspects.   ... short term/now-cast

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SouthCoastMA

SouthCoastMA

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Almost 40 here. Either the NAM is right, or its basically a Coating-1" here. I've lived here long enough to know that snow has a difficult time accumulating in December without heavy rates or an impressive airmass in place.  This might be the storm that the NAM gets it's annual heave into the model dumpster. I'm not making any proclamations yet though..leaving room for Tip to be onto something. 

 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
  On 12/20/2024 at 3:07 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

Almost 40 here. Either the NAM is right, or its basically a Coating-1" here. I've lived here long enough to know that snow has a difficult time accumulating in December without an impressive airmass in place.  This might be the storm that the NAM gets it's annual heave into the model dumpster. 

 

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That's what I am worried about too. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
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  On 12/20/2024 at 3:03 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

i understand why the nam is doing this and i suggest folks take it more seriously - guarded, but seriously.

firstly, from a purely/personal experience with this guidance in the operational usage ...it is not as bad as reputation/court of public abuse letting, at time frames < 30 hours

but, that aside ... what i am about to say is no analog, but this is 'circumstantially' beginning to remind me of dec 2005, when this model's forefather version smoked all other guidance in depicting a 'nj model low' type of detonation, where the other guidance' were se of it.

the reason it did that is because of the low level thermal packing that axists along an axis from roughly cape may nj to just se of cape cod.  

the analysis this morning indicates an intense horizontal temperature gradient, which is likely collocated with an actual hydrostatic thickness wall along or near that same axis.  as the wind/difluence mechanics approach from the west, the right entrance of the mid/ua acceleration is likely to enhance systemic upglide along that elevated frontal slow that exists from the ekman termination/sfc to the 850 mb, a slope that is unusually steep.  that angle of rise then make the pseudo adiabatic process very efficient

- this type of smaller scaled circumstance, overall, is something the nam is uniquely qualified to handle.    not intending to go completely with the nam ... but the above is the type of correction that requires being nearly on top of the event in order to "see" these physics - they almost need to exist before that correction occurs, because the global models seem to have a weakness in the arena of effectively setting the table with these discrete environmental aspects.   ... short term/now-cast

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10am radar obs look closest to NAM's FWIW

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 12/20/2024 at 3:04 PM, CoastalWx said:

HRRR with a shift east with the heavies. 

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we're probably about as far west as this system is going to 'correct' ?  

it's fine...  for me anyway.   take 20 or even 30% off the top of the nam is still a relative win for this event considering where it was 24 hours ago in guidance.  but, i outlined some of the physical processes that i consider as instrumental in why we got this late west fix on things...  and yes, the nam may be perhaps too efficient.  

looking at sat and pressure tendency metric/obs it seems more of a nj model low has some early indication here.  we'll see

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