Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[mitchnick]

3k. It's done. Congrats x 2.

[Damage In Tolland]

Whheeeeeeeeeeee

[LSC97wxnut]

Hmm... Do I fish the shovels out of the shed or not. 

You know either way will be the wrong decision...

[mitchnick]

3k. Further north. Still snowing some in Maine.

[CoastalWx]

Gonna be sweating it with temps here for awhile, but enjoy it Brett. 

[DJln491]

1 minute ago, LSC97wxnut said:

Hmm... Do I fish the shovels out of the shed or not. 

You know either way will be the wrong decision...

I say yes, go against superstition and conventional wisdom.  hell I might fire up the snowblower lol

[CoastalWx]

Man I’m gonna be walking and rocking feverishly all day. 

[Typhoon Tip]

fwiw - i changed the title of this saga ..   it's very short term for doing that but, heh - these models are sorta acting like we still have 3 days left of modeling

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man I’m gonna be walking and rocking feverishly all day. 

Toe tap? Playing a Banjo? Or rocking and rubbing your hands together feverishly?

[mitchnick]

Nothing to hate here in ENE.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=DIX-N0B-1-24-100-usa-rad

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

3k. Further north. Still snowing some in Maine.

Man, I deserve a gradient like that with those just noth getting porked...inverse of what has played out so often over the past severl years.

[EastonSN+]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

3k. It's done. Congrats x 2.

Nice but I prefer the 12K back here

[CoastalWx]

I’d like to see the hrrr get more west. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Let’s see what Reggie does 

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man I’m gonna be walking and rocking feverishly all day. 

Seems like you'll be fine by afternoon or evening, regardless. I might have to wait til later tonight

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see the hrrr get more west. 

13z coming out now.. not even close to what the NAM is showing but did start to increase from 12z

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Seems like you'll be fine by afternoon or evening, regardless. I might have to wait til later tonight

I think more after 7-8 here unless it absolutely slams. 

[SouthCoastMA]

mostly flakes in this heavier shower

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I think more after 7-8 here unless it absolutely slams. 

Yeah if the NAMs are right, then shouldn't be a problem. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

13z coming out now.. not even close to what the NAM is showing but did start to increase from 12z

HRRR starting to get the initial banding further west.. still not NAM but yes improving .. throws 1-2" into much of CT now

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see the hrrr get more west. 

The HRRR didn't get the memo about spiking the eggnog.

[Damage In Tolland]

Snower is coming folks 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The HRRR didn't get the memo about spiking the eggnog.

I’ll be up having some perhaps at The View on top of the Pru. I’ll either enjoy the flakes or take advantage of a nice dive from 720’ up.

[Typhoon Tip]

ha!   maybe attribution helps us here...  the pwat growth in the ambience with higher totals everywhere thing that's connected to cc may help us over-achieve around this w-nw arc

just sayn'

[UnitedWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

The HRRR didn't get the memo about spiking the eggnog.

I'll be having some of that this evening if we actually get more than an inch back this way!

[Typhoon Tip]

It's definitely one of those situations when your looking at sat/ir loop and your going, 'there's no way this thing ends up east'  

[Go Kart Mozart]

Even BDR has a 25f dewpoint right now.  I don't think stickage will be a big problem here.

[brooklynwx99]

24 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’d like to see the hrrr get more west. 

yeah the HRRR not biting gives me pause again. if the RGEM makes a big move its full steam ahead IMO

[UnitedWx]

5 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Even BDR has a 25f dewpoint right now.  I don't think stickage will be a big problem here.

I doubt it. 23dp in Simsbury currently

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah the HRRR not biting gives me pause again. if the RGEM makes a big move its full steam ahead IMO

As a Pro MET, what does your knowledge and gut tell you about the upper air set up, along with sat and ir?  Modeling has been atrocious for a week with this thing.