Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[MJO812]

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah the GFS moving NW makes me pretty confident for advisory snows in RI into E / SE MA

didn't get up very early this a.m. so likely behind but yeah ... the gfs bumping enough nw at 06z (18 hours lead no less!) like that gives pause. 

if this goes ahead and verifies .. i want some f'n acknowledgement by this group/social media for the sref.  i'm not asking people to give up their impressions of that model system but in the event of this getting a 3-5" snow almost to 495, with 4-7" se, that's not the global models getting credit for that - in fact ... it would be an indictment

[Bryan63]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

With what? A coating?

 

Even if we snow, could easily be non accumulating slop 

Maybe it's the 8 yrs living in NC, or my standards just declined as I get older (see eating my kids scraps for dinner) but even just seeing flakes falling the weekend before Christmas would be enough for me.

[ineedsnow]

lol NAM 

[ineedsnow]

stuff popping in NJ so could be right

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

lol NAM 

Okay do tell. Nothing at all or bumped back Northwest. At this point. I really don't care, as long as we get an inch to coat the ground I'd be happy

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Snowcrazed71 said:

Okay do tell. Nothing at all or bumped back Northwest. At this point. I really don't care, as long as we get an inch to coat the ground I'd be happy

pretty far west

[ineedsnow]

WTF!! NAM

[MJO812]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

WTF!! NAM

A low is popping off NJ right now

[ineedsnow]

Just now, MJO812 said:

A low is popping off NJ right now

ya was just noticing that    this run is great!

[ineedsnow]

this run would be the biggest short term bust we had in awhile

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Bryan63 said:

Maybe it's the 8 yrs living in NC, or my standards just declined as I get older (see eating my kids scraps for dinner) but even just seeing flakes falling the weekend before Christmas would be enough for me.

His appreciation level is horrible. Everything is negative with that poor guy. He says he’s being realistic, when it’s just constant negativity with every post.   And then he’ll score 3-6”. 

 

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

A low is popping off NJ right now

Saw that at about 7 am on the radar…and was like Hmmm? 

[ineedsnow]

based on this run a advisory if not warnings should be flying 

[SouthCoastMA]

18 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

With what? A coating?

 

Even if we snow, could easily be non accumulating slop 

Nah that's here. 

[dryslot]

What is the Nam doing? Lol

[Layman]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

based on this run a advisory if not warnings should be flying 

Without high resolution Kuchera snow maps posted, these posts are becoming extremely difficult for the layperson! 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Christ what a close call.

it would be so perfect man - i get it...   man.   it's 28/21 here.  i mean, that's the temp and dp spread of lore.   if this thing were just 3 ch's nw, we'd be talking 0 ptype contended bliss.  

although the 06z almost makes me wonder if this is a now-cast coup, incoming...  i frankly think it would be just fantastic if the euro and gfs eat meso crow, despite all their super top secret def jam souped-up bad-ass rock star advancements over the last 10 years  ... a good ole fashioned positive bust for the underdawgs

one thing we have to admit - this pattern didn't fail to produce.   i realize the centricity of folks', in needing it outside their actual front door, won't allow them to feel they need to necessarily concur... lol.   but they would be outside a fair and objective ability to judge the reality of what's going on with this. this has achieved both nice identification/ recognizing of/for leading indicators, as well, fun for seeing it emerge then having so much tracking opportunity over the last week's worth of model cinema/entertainment chances.  

the devil being that the system slips 3 ch's too far e ... that's just unfortunately unavoidable some times.   sad trumpet.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

based on this run a advisory if not warnings should be flying 

They aren’t going to pull the panic button over the erratic NAM

[Sey-Mour Snow]

WTF NAM???

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, Layman said:

Without high resolution Kuchera snow maps posted, these posts are becoming extremely difficult for the layperson! 

 

[Boston Bulldog]

Kicked off an obs thread… hoping there are enough flakes around this evening to justify!

NOTE: This was done independent of the zonked NAM run

[WinterWolf]

Thank you NAM..I’ll take the 6”. 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

They aren’t going to pull the panic button over the erratic NAM

I think it might be real.. look at the precip blossoming over eastern NJ

[ORH_wxman]

3k is bullish too...NAM is legit warning snows for a lot of eastern zones. Maybe even into SW CT if that westward stuff is real.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

I think it might be real.. look at the precip blossoming over eastern NJ

Ya, that looks legit.  Fun times. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

 

Wow...sit back and watch, I guess-

[mitchnick]

3k and not quite over yet. Congrats

[Layman]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...sit back and watch, I guess-

Slide that NE a touch and you jack and I get to work with more than just the tip of that pink zone.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Layman said:

Slide that NE a touch and you jack and I get to work with more than just the tip of that pink zone.

Been a while with the wife 9 months preggars...

[Layman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Been a while with the wife 9 months preggars...

I was thinking that either came out wrong, or just right LOL