Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[JC-CT]

So close, yet so far

[weathafella]

I came back from shopping which had the NAM open to 9 hours when I got in the car.  Meanwhile I had peeked at srefs (wtf is wrong with me!) and noted the bump.  By the time I got home I saw the NAM and started laughing.   I am taking my daughter to the airport for a 6am flight.  We’ll leave around 4:15am.  I probably could get her there in time to make the flight if I leave at 4:30.  I’m staying up until I get back home.   Probably asleep by 6, hopefully sleep until around 1.  Should hopefully be snowing when I get up for good.  I trained last night by staying up for the 6z NAM and getting into bed at 4:15am.

[ORH_wxman]

Rgem bumped NW but only modestly. Nothing like the NAM trend. At least it was in the right direction but I was hoping for more than a nominal bump. 

[CoastalWx]

Maybe a little west and wetter? But it didn’t really move the needle. 

[dryslot]

Warm on the cape too into SEMA.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

20 minutes ago, George001 said:

You have done nothing but shit on this threat, so I hope you rain. Yes, I’m aware I would probably rain too but I’m ok with that. I would light myself on fire to prevent you from getting snow.

This threat deserves to be shat on, and still does. It’s been teasing everyone for days now and the end result is going to be nothing for most.

Im being realistic 

[ROOSTA]

All this for 1-2", maybe 3"?
IMBY bias is gone, no dog in the fight anymore. No map needed...
Looking for an extreme event to get the adrenaline flowing once again.
If I were still in the area desperation would be setting in, thus the emotional reactions. I get it!

Pedestrian event.

***Maybe come for a visit to change the juju***

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

11 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

I don’t even know what the beef here but this is hilarious.  George you are a rising star around here my friend.  

There should be no beef. Im not hanging my hat on a 1% miracle chance less than 24 hours from the event. He can, I won’t 

[Typhoon Tip]

i get the sense that this could be one of those scenarios where if there’s going to be a se clipping … the gfs may never model it happening - only initializing as it is happening 

basically a blind event. sometimes a model just for some reason can’t see it .. rare but they ride it out 

[dryslot]

Good nowcast candidate.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i get the sense that this could be one of those scenarios where if there’s going to be a se clipping … the gfs may never model it happening - only initializing as it is happening 

basically a blind event. sometimes a model just for some reason can’t see it 

Makes sense, and Quite possible.  
 

And, Now that we say this it’ll blast west.  

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Good nowcast candidate.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

Is that sh*t streak off the SE coast moving out of the way/further east quicker than first modeled? Kind of looks it. 

[dryslot]

12 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=nwatl&product=ir

Great for radar hallucinations too.............

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

There should be no beef. Im not hanging my hat on a 1% miracle chance less than 24 hours from the event. He can, I won’t 

What's beef?
Beef is when you need Ray’s monthly outlook to go to sleep
Beef is when you ain't safe from a wolf in amwx streets
Beef is when George sees you
Guaranteed to be in virtual I-C-U, one more time

What's beef?
Beef is when you post negative thoughts in heaps
Beef is when you think winter’s done before it has a chance to get deep
Beef is when the predator sees you
Guaranteed to be in virtual I-C-U, check it

[dryslot]

If the grappler enters this thread, I'll wrestle with the idea that this could be a solid hit on ACK.

[brooklynwx99]

RGEM looks pretty realistic. main WAA push with the vort into the HV/far W CT, C CT kinda gets skunked, then the coastal front enhances precipitation as the coastal gets going into RI/E MA. BL issues neuter accumulations down to PYM/Cape

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

RGEM looks pretty realistic. main WAA push with the vort into the HV/far W CT, C CT kinda gets skunked, then the coastal front enhances precipitation as the coastal gets going into RI/E MA. BL issues neuter accumulations down to PYM/Cape

I jack on that map.  I’m good at jacking in dinkleshit events.

[ineedsnow]

pretty big shift west on the GFS but still not enough

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

pretty big shift west on the GFS but still not enough

Its a big trip back west from the flemish cap

[DavisStraight]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

RGEM looks pretty realistic. main WAA push with the vort into the HV/far W CT, C CT kinda gets skunked, then the coastal front enhances precipitation as the coastal gets going into RI/E MA. BL issues neuter accumulations down to PYM/Cape

Looks like a Hazey special in NS.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I jack off all over on that map.  I’m good at jacking off for dinkleshit events.

Rock out with your…

[ineedsnow]

big shift 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If these shifts continued last night into today, we might have something. But at this point, it’s just making it a closer miss.

[eduggs]

Consensus is two QPF maxes: one in EPA and one in EMA. Ratios might be better in PA but it's impossible to know where best banding will set up.

[ineedsnow]

GEFS snow probs for 1 and 4 inches is way up  compared to 18z 

[eduggs]

Yeah GEFS mean is pretty wet for eastern areas. Finally coming around.

[powderfreak]

Some interior lift up here and excellent snow growth temps, a random decent fluffy accumulation (in short order) is always possible with light QPF at -9C to -18C at 850mb on the progs.

[weathafella]

 CMC looks decent for EMA actually.

[George001]

1 hour ago, cleetussnow said:

I don’t even know what the beef here but this is hilarious.  George you are a rising star around here my friend.  

No beef, just giving him shit lol. At this point I agree with him about this threat not being a big deal, not buying the NAM.