Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

But tonight both of them went the same way…any more credence lent to that idea? 

Like Brooklyn said, needs more support. The NAM is sort of closer to what I expect if there wasn’t that pesky vort off the southeast coast.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

I grew up in New Britain, CT (south-central Hartford County).  Even that area did well during many of the 50's and 60's winters.  Moved to Burlington in 1979.  These days the 1,200' elevation certainly helps...  While I was young, I remember the 1960-61 period well...  Love the Lindsey Day storm of 1969...  Hard to beat the 78 storm in my book;  Organized a neighborhood supply hike to get baby food since we lived on street with lots of babies and couldn't travel by car.  Several sleepless nights due to the drone of payloaders clearing streets... Great memories...  Have a great holiday period.

 

Good times!  Youth and snow and fun.  Happy Holidays John!

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

1z HRRR coming in slightly west of the last run so trend hasn't stopped 

It will fluctuate for sure. Sometimes it stops and reverses for a time.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Like Brooklyn said, needs more support. The NAM is sort of closer to what I expect if there wasn’t that pesky vort off the southeast coast.

Verbatim, I’d prob be on the cold side of the CF here. Expecting nothing, but NAM would be several here 

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Like Brooklyn said, needs more support. The NAM is sort of closer to what I expect if there wasn’t that pesky vort off the southeast coast.

I think it would be even better if it didn't chase that convection at first to the east.. 

[Typhoon Tip]

i dunno. this is different than the nw nam bias thing 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Like Brooklyn said, needs more support. The NAM is sort of closer to what I expect if there wasn’t that pesky vort off the southeast coast.

Well yes, I agree. But to be honest, we’ve seen the GFS and Euro shit the bed at 18 hrs out too. Is this one of those times again? Another Nowcast? But I understand and feel that way too. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

i dunno. this is different than the nw nam bias thing 

We’re getting inside 24h to the onset. If we can’t believe any of the short term guidance at this point, then throw them in the trash. If the rgem jumps on board I’ll feel decent about the trend. 

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Verbatim, I’d prob be on the cold side of the CF here. Expecting nothing, but NAM would be several here 

The CF is way NW of you. It starts out by 495 in NE MA to metro west.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re getting inside 24h to the onset. If we can’t believe any of the short term guidance at this point, then throw them in the trash. If the rgem jumps on board I’ll feel decent about the trend. 

Yep agree.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

i dunno. this is different than the nw nam bias thing 

Tip, do you think the convection it chases is real, or phantom type deal?  If that’s phantom stuff, then that could be corrupting the track even more? 

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

We’re getting inside 24h to the onset. If we can’t believe any of the short term guidance at this point, then throw them in the trash. If the rgem jumps on board I’ll feel decent about the trend. 

I was going to mention this, and then erased it.  But I was thinking that too. This thing has been jumping all over the place, and back and forth on the globals, I mean can these mesos be trusted now at 18 hrs out? They’re junk if they can’t be. 

[George001]

8 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Verbatim, I’d prob be on the cold side of the CF here. Expecting nothing, but NAM would be several here 

You have done nothing but shit on this threat, so I hope you rain. Yes, I’m aware I would probably rain too but I’m ok with that. I would light myself on fire to prevent you from getting snow.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, George001 said:

You have done nothing but shit on this threat, so I hope you rain. Yes, I’m aware I would probably rain too but I’m ok with that. I would light myself on fire to prevent you from getting snow.

Most of us have shat on this threat.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

You have done nothing but shit on this threat, so I hope you rain. Yes, I’m aware I would probably rain too but I’m ok with that. I would light myself on fire to prevent you from getting snow.

damn I needed that laugh 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Tip, do you think the convection it chases is real, or phantom type deal?  If that’s phantom stuff, then that could be corrupting the track even more? 

ill get back to you in the morning dude I’m on my phone. It’s kind of a pain the ass to type that answer. or maybe Scott or Will 

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Most of us have shat on this threat.

could the NAM be right? sure, but it’s been super erratic and you would think that global models would support it more. if the RGEM craps on it, it would be a big red flag. if it makes a big move, i’ll be more intrigued 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

You have done nothing but shit on this threat, so I hope you rain. Yes, I’m aware I would probably rain too but I’m ok with that. I would light myself on fire to prevent you from getting snow.

Lmfao.   That’s hilarious!  
 

He does that with every threat…then most of the time he gets a good dump. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ill get back to you in the morning dude I’m on my phone. It’s kind of a pain the ass to type that answer. or maybe Scott or Will 

No worries John. 

[ineedsnow]

ICON still crap but shifted west

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah I think all of us have taken a dump on this threat at some point in this thread. TauntonBlizz does it a lot but he’s not alone this time. 

[George001]

5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lmfao.   That’s hilarious!  
 

He does that with every threat…then most of the time he gets a good dump. 

Although the past few years have been rough, he bitches his way to jackpotting way too often. It’s just not right ya know? To be fair to him, he isn't entirely wrong to dump on this threat. The guidance outside the NAM isn’t very impressive. I’m not expecting more than a coating to 2 inches for my area either.

[WinterWolf]

Just now, George001 said:

Although the past few years have been rough, he bitches his way to jackpotting way too often. It’s just not right ya know?

100%! 

[Snowcrazed71]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Although the past few years have been rough, he bitches his way to jackpotting way too often. It’s just not right ya know?

I've learned in this forum that there's going to be your perpetual complainers, Debbie Downers, obvious optimists, and your flip floppers.... Together we make a forum!! ( I mean imagine how boring it would be if we're all the same ). ;-)

[WinterWolf]

When’s the RGEM come out?  Although that thing ain’t all that great either. 

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think all of us have taken a dump on this threat at some point in this thread. TauntonBlizz does it a lot but he’s not alone this time. 

it’s been frustrating. everything was basically good except the actual result 

sometimes you get the bear sometimes the bare gets you.  we’ll see

but the low frequency PNA is really stressing cyclogen because the whole flow is stretching - very idiosyncratic 

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, George001 said:

Although the past few years have been rough, he bitches his way to jackpotting way too often. It’s just not right ya know? To be fair to him, he isn't entirely wrong to dump on this threat. The guidance outside the NAM isn’t very impressive. I’m not expecting more than a coating to 2 inches for my area either.

meh 

everyone has their own way of dealing with their angst in this “support group”

nothing he’s said or done is really truly injurious - it’s venting … that’s all 

[cleetussnow]

12 minutes ago, George001 said:

You have done nothing but shit on this threat, so I hope you rain. Yes, I’m aware I would probably rain too but I’m ok with that. I would light myself on fire to prevent you from getting snow.

I don’t even know what the beef here but this is hilarious.  George you are a rising star around here my friend.  

[CoastalWx]

Reggie didn’t change much imo. 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

When’s the RGEM come out?  Although that thing ain’t all that great either. 

Its out, Its meh, No different then 18z