Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

C-1” slop here. 

[CoastalWx]

It needs more than that.

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Eduggs says the precip field is pretty much unchanged though…so maybe it doesn’t mean much? 

Precip field is def pretty far west compared to 18z. He might have been talking about vs 23z which wasn’t much of a change. 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

that was a heck of a jump on the HRRR from 18z to 0z 

To me if looks like the lowest surface pressure is a couple of mbs lower on the western lobe and a couple higher on the eastern. Pressure field looks otherwise very similar to 18z when I toggle between them. The biggest difference I see is a bit more precipitation NW of the low. It's a good shift but still looks minor to me.

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It needs more than that.

Story of this system. If we were getting these trends on top of the 00z runs last night, then we’d be in business. But we always sneak in a regression just in time to screw it up like at 12z today. 
 

The 12z runs were def the most frustrating because the trend last night is something you think might stick given that we were getting into that 48h range. Usually those are real. 

[eduggs]

The HRRR is a dangerous tool, highly susceptible to wishcasting. 500mb on the HRRR would be helpful to guard against model field hallucinations, but I don't think that parameter is available.

[dendrite]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The HRRR is a dangerous tool, highly susceptible to wishcasting. 500mb on the HRRR would be helpful to guard against model field hallucinations, but I don't think that parameter is available.

H5 is on pivotal. No vorticity though. 
 

you can get the vort and all parameters here

https://rapidrefresh.noaa.gov/hrrr/HRRR/Welcome.cgi?dsKey=hrrr_ncep_jet

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

H5 is on pivotal. No vorticity though. 

I see it now, thanks!

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Story of this system. If we were getting these trends on top of the 00z runs last night, then we’d be in business. But we always sneak in a regression just in time to screw it up like at 12z today. 
 

The 12z runs were def the most frustrating because the trend last night is something you think might stick given that we were getting into that 48h range. Usually those are real. 

Yep for sure. I had a concern something like this might happen blah. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, eduggs said:

I see it now, thanks!

Check my edit 

[ORH_wxman]

00z RAP went west again. That would be very interesting for SE MA and the Cape if we could see another few frames  

 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

00z RAP went west again. That would be very interesting for SE MA and the Cape if we could see another few frames  

 

Why see, when you can hallucinate instead?

[WinterWolf]

8 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Why see, when you can hallucinate instead?

I like that. 

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Why see, when you can hallucinate instead?

The DGEX used to be so great. Running the NAM out to 192 using the GFS from the 84hr map was pure genius. 

[ineedsnow]

NAM  coming west

[Damage In Tolland]

We’ve got a regionwide snow storm coming 

[ineedsnow]

lol here we go again

[HoarfrostHubb]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The DGEX used to be so great. Running the NAM out to 192 using the GFS from the 84hr map was pure genius. 

That was so much fun

[ineedsnow]

snowing in most of SNE by early afternoon

[ineedsnow]

honestly if the NAM didn't chase the convection to the east it would probably would be even better

[HoarfrostHubb]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We’ve got a regionwide snow storm coming 

snow storm might be a stretch

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/festive-lights-snows-possible-leading.html

Pretty close...

[ineedsnow]

that was a massive shift from 18z 

[HoarfrostHubb]

PVD looks good

[WinterWolf]

Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

snow storm might be a stretch

Snowfall maybe? 

[ineedsnow]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Pretty close...

that might change after 0z

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Snowfall maybe? 

Yep.   

[CoastalWx]

Eff that model. JFC.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

honestly if the NAM didn't chase the convection to the east it would probably would be even better

Could that(chasing convection)be suspect/fake? 

[HoarfrostHubb]

12K NAM crushes Buzzard's Bay