Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[ORH_wxman]

The rap has been hideous most of today but the 21z run decided to bump well NW. We’ll see if the 00z runs make any attempt to follow suit. Even 25-30 miles could make a decent difference. I don’t think those crazy double digit totals are going to come back but if you move the forcing NW a tick then there could be more low end advisory amounts.  

[Typhoon Tip]

it's like the last 30 hours of model runs have been oscillating between complete whiffs and dick teasing

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

We’re probably close age.  I remember as a hungry snow weenie around age 11 waiting for the forecast which included 2 additional days and when you listened and heard “the outlook for Saturday and Sunday is sunny and cold Saturday.  Increasing cloudiness and continued cold Sunday indicating a chance.  That was good enough back then.  But then again the internet opened us up to a world that revealed so many just like us.  Before the net we had this “weird obsession with weather”

Hey Jerry... Agree.  You're also right about the age!  One thing about our age bracket is that we have been able to experience the incredible seismic changes in the observational and forecasting sides of weather over the past 65 or so years.  Also, we got to live, depending where you grew up, through some historic winters; temperature-wise even more so than storm-wise.  Stay well...

[CoastalWx]

I do think somewhere from near Ray to Brookline-ish and SW may get a narrowband of 1-2” from the CF. Maybe 3 in a lucky spot.

 

I’m not saying that entire real estate is getting it, but somewhere in that area will  reside that band. It might start from near Ray to Will’s area or so. We’ll see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Then (at least for me) was the greatest positive bust I've ever seen, 3/31-4/1 1997. There's something about that one where I feel nothing will ever surmount it.

Later that year we had 2nd most positive bust on 12/23/1997.

[weathafella]

28 minutes ago, FXWX said:

Hey Jerry... Agree.  You're also right about the age!  One thing about our age bracket is that we have been able to experience the incredible seismic changes in the observational and forecasting sides of weather over the past 65 or so years.  Also, we got to live, depending where you grew up, through some historic winters; temperature-wise even more so than storm-wise.  Stay well...

John, I grew up in NNJ during some epic times featuring March of 1956, February and March of 1958, March of 1960 and of course the trifecta of 1960-61.  However, leaving for LA in November of 1976 returning in July 1991 cost me 78-a bitter pill I will take to my grave.

You’re in a great spot now with enough elevation to add plenty to the sea level climo.  Where did you grow up?

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I do think somewhere from near Ray to Brookline-ish and SW may get a narrowband of 1-2” from the CF. Maybe 3 in a lucky spot.

 

I’m not saying that entire real estate is getting it, but somewhere in that area will  reside that band. It might start from near Ray to Will’s area or so. We’ll see.

Agree...I'd favor near a bit south of me closer to Wilmington. 

[ineedsnow]

21z SREFS 

[CoastalWx]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Later that year we had 2nd most positive bust on 12/23/1997.

Yeah that was ridiculous. I still remember being like wtf when I saw those amounts.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

21z SREFS 

Why even look

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

21z SREFS 

21z BEERFS

[ineedsnow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why even look

I was just curious but that would make many happy 

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Why even look

21z trend is hot right now. RAP and SREFS coming NW…who needs the Euro and GFS?

[Snowcrazed71]

5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

21z trend is hot right now. RAP and SREFS coming NW…who needs the Euro and GFS?

Well why not just show them. We're only a day away.. not the smaller models better with short-term forecasts over the larger models

[ROOSTA]

Seeing an overachiever "pre-preforming" as the models turn. The s/w is powerful and its digging.
Somebody is going to be surprised...   

[ineedsnow]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

21z trend is hot right now. RAP and SREFS coming NW…who needs the Euro and GFS?

23z HRRR 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

23z HRRR 

21z BERRR

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

23z HRRR 

Yeah it’s way amped versus earlier runs (comparing it to 18z is easier since the 18z run went out past 18 hours.)

[ineedsnow]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s way amped versus earlier runs (comparing it to 18z is easier since the 18z run went out past 18 hours.)

If I was in eastern ma I would still pay attention 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

23z HRRR 

Lol, I was just looking at that. 00z might perk some weenies up.

[CoastalWx]

looks like it’s deciding what convection to develop a low on.

[ineedsnow]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

looks like it’s deciding what convection to develop a low on.

the western one seems to be winning out the last few runs.. hoping you get something out of this

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Lol, I was just looking at that. 00z might perk some weenies up.

That’s a huge jump west. 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

the western one seems to be winning out the last few runs.. hoping you get something out of this

You to ORH to this area may grab 1-3 

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You to ORH to this area may grab 1-3 

I think we get 1 to 2 either way.. lots of light snow around later tomorrow

[FXWX]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

John, I grew up in NNJ during some epic times featuring March of 1956, February and March of 1958, March of 1960 and of course the trifecta of 1960-61.  However, leaving for LA in November of 1976 returning in July 1991 cost me 78-a bitter pill I will take to my grave.

You’re in a great spot now with enough elevation to add plenty to the sea level climo.  Where did you grow up?

I grew up in New Britain, CT (south-central Hartford County).  Even that area did well during many of the 50's and 60's winters.  Moved to Burlington in 1979.  These days the 1,200' elevation certainly helps...  While I was young, I remember the 1960-61 period well...  Love the Lindsey Day storm of 1969...  Hard to beat the 78 storm in my book;  Organized a neighborhood supply hike to get baby food since we lived on street with lots of babies and couldn't travel by car.  Several sleepless nights due to the drone of payloaders clearing streets... Great memories...  Have a great holiday period.

Quote

 

 

[eduggs]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

That’s a huge jump west. 

The pressure field doesn't look too different to me. Precip. field too. The placement of the L on the map can be misleading. The pressure field is like a topo map of terrain elevation with ridges and peaks. There isn't always one solitary summit.

It looks like a minor shift to me... typical run to run variation. But I'm hoping for a positive surprise.

[ineedsnow]

that was a heck of a jump on the HRRR from 18z to 0z 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

that was a heck of a jump on the HRRR from 18z to 0z 

Still not enough. Been the theme of this event. Outside of a few NAM runs and maybe another rogue model, the left goalpost has generally been not far enough for a big hit. It admittedly wouldn’t take much to get a decent hit into SE MA but this system just doesn’t want to go that final 40-50 miles NW. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

that was a heck of a jump on the HRRR from 18z to 0z 

Eduggs says the precip field is pretty much unchanged though…so maybe it doesn’t mean much?