Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[UnitedWx]

26 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/12/festive-lights-snows-possible-leading.html

That forecast must've taken hours to create

[MJO812]

Euro nice for the cape

[SouthCoastMA]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro nice for the cape

Compared to 6z how was it?

[40/70 Benchmark]

39 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

That forecast must've taken hours to create

You would be suprised.....obviously that particular map was quick and easy, but structuring how I want to compose the narrative takes time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

Compared to 6z how was it?

Always be leery of source.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Given my personal situation has kind of smacked reality into me over the last year or so, it’s kind of nice to not get worked up over these things like I used to.

 

that being said, it’s hard to remember a stretch in my 30 years where we had so many things go wrong like we have over the last couple years. Almost have to tip your cap at this point.

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Given my personal situation has kind of smacked reality into me over the last year or so, it’s kind of nice to not get worked up over these things like I used to.

 

that being said, it’s hard to remember a stretch in my 30 years where we had so many things go wrong like we have over the last couple years. Almost have to tip your cap at this point.

It's bound to happen. It's happened in the past ( Even within the 30 years that you're talking about ). It's quite normal to have a stretch of a year or two where things don't go as planned. 

The good news is, we get this out of the way and get closer to having a good streak. It'll happen.

[WinterWolf]

5 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Given my personal situation has kind of smacked reality into me over the last year or so, it’s kind of nice to not get worked up over these things like I used to.

 

that being said, it’s hard to remember a stretch in my 30 years where we had so many things go wrong like we have over the last couple years. Almost have to tip your cap at this point.

That’s just it..you’re too young…this was common place in the 80’s. Ya kind of just expected things to go wrong, or not workout.  Welcome back to 40 yrs ago. 

[Layman]

10 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Given my personal situation has kind of smacked reality into me over the last year or so, it’s kind of nice to not get worked up over these things like I used to.

 

that being said, it’s hard to remember a stretch in my 30 years where we had so many things go wrong like we have over the last couple years. Almost have to tip your cap at this point.

"I feel great, no head-throb here!"

@40/70 Benchmark Am I doing this right?

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

It's bound to happen. It's happened in the past ( Even within the 30 years that you're talking about ). It's quite normal to have a stretch of a year or two where things don't go as planned. 

The good news is, we get this out of the way and get closer to having a good streak. It'll happen.

Right, but it’s been near a decade now with very few exceptions, which happens but that’s also time you don’t get back.

Totally agree though that we’ll turn it around eventually, and as I said in the other thread, let’s just get a white Christmas and worry about the rest later. 

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Given my personal situation has kind of smacked reality into me over the last year or so, it’s kind of nice to not get worked up over these things like I used to.

 

that being said, it’s hard to remember a stretch in my 30 years where we had so many things go wrong like we have over the last couple years. Almost have to tip your cap at this point.

We'll never know though because we have so much information at our fingertips now. Everything is available to us in a matter of a few clicks. 
 

That's one thing that sucks about the modern era. The ignorance of not knowing what will happen is gone. Who knows if we'd say the same thing 35+ years ago.

[CoastalWx]

HRRR SE again. Congrats Ray on 2" and flurries for the rest. 

[WinterWolf]

13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Right, but it’s been near a decade now with very few exceptions, which happens but that’s also time you don’t get back.

Totally agree though that we’ll turn it around eventually, and as I said in the other thread, let’s just get a white Christmas and worry about the rest later. 

The exceptions…16-17, 17-18, 20-21.  Those were decent. 

[FXWX]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll never know though because we have so much information at our fingertips now. Everything is available to us in a matter of a few clicks. 
 

That's one thing that sucks about the modern era. The ignorance of not knowing what will happen is gone. Who knows if we'd say the same thing 35+ years ago.

Ignorance was bliss back in the day!  Depression and disappointment were what happened in the 24-hr run up to a storm event when you noted negative trends in the latest 500 mb analysis (often hand plotted), or during the onset period of the storm when obs from the Middle Atlantic indicated a snow to rain flip was likely, or the track might be trending too far east for big snows!!!!!  While many on this board we're not around to "enjoy" the low information era, it had its pluses!

[CoastalWx]

Just now, FXWX said:

Ignorance was bliss back in the day!  Depression and disappointment were what happened in the 24-hr run up to a storm event when you noted negative trends in the latest 500 mb analysis (often hand plotted), or during the onset period of the storm when obs from the Middle Atlantic indicated a snow to rain flip was likely, or the track might be trending too far east for big snows!!!!!  While many on this board we're not around to "enjoy" the low information era, it had its pluses!

Even before that. I was at the mercy of just my own obs and experience. But sometimes you would get subtle hints at when a storm was a bust...both negative and positive. Your experience would then grow from that.

 

A classic one was a former on air met (he was good and passed away several years ago) Bruce Schwoegler. He would always talk about backlash snows and even when I was in 5th grade, I knew those were fraud around here. But once in awhile you'd get excited that maybe it would happen, only to wake up, open the shade and see bare ground. 

[dryslot]

A Fraud 5 disciple.

[ineedsnow]

18z NAM has some festive snow tomorrow

[SouthCoastMA]

The 12z euro did have some flakes on the 24th..but I haven't seen that in other runs really. 

[FXWX]

20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Even before that. I was at the mercy of just my own obs and experience. But sometimes you would get subtle hints at when a storm was a bust...both negative and positive. Your experience would then grow from that.

 

A classic one was a former on air met (he was good and passed away several years ago) Bruce Schwoegler. He would always talk about backlash snows and even when I was in 5th grade, I knew those were fraud around here. But once in awhile you'd get excited that maybe it would happen, only to wake up, open the shade and see bare ground. 

I hear ya... When I was in high school I purchased a radio facsimile that I could receive the all the latest upper air plots and hourlies from ME to NC... I thought I was in heaven!  I remember they started sending the LFM model (went out 48-hrs) maps just prior to the 1978 blizzard!  Forecasting was never the same; lol

[ORH_wxman]

Feb 24-25, 1989 was the first massive bust I remember and you could see it coming in real time even as a young elementary school weenie. The snow was originally supposed to start that Friday night or predawn Saturday morning. I was watching the evening news and they said it was only snowing on parts of LI and the immediate NJ shore but that we should eventually get into the heavy snow during the day on Saturday. That was the first “hint” that things weren’t exactly going as originally planned.
 

Then I wake up Saturday morning to overcast but it was kind of thin. You could see the disc of the sun at times. The local noontime broadcast showed snow on the Cape. It was snowing lightly with a few inches there but we have bare ground still. Then Barry Burbank comes on at noontime weather segment and says the snow might not start until late afternoon. This is when I started getting that pit in my stomach. 
 

I think I stared at the spotlight out back for almost two hours straight between 6-8pm without seeing a flake in the beam of light. Then I finally saw a few weenie flakes before bed around 830-9pm. It snowed all night and finally stopped about mid morning. The storm still ended up a bust but at least we didn’t get shutout like many others I would learn only years later. We finished with about 4” of arctic sand after the original forecast on Friday had been 1-2 feet. Parts of the cape verified with double digits. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

We'll never know though because we have so much information at our fingertips now. Everything is available to us in a matter of a few clicks. 
 

That's one thing that sucks about the modern era. The ignorance of not knowing what will happen is gone. Who knows if we'd say the same thing 35+ years ago.

Well, we still don't  know? Never will??

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, we still don't  know? Never will??

Nobody knows?

[WinterWolf]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 24-25, 1989 was the first massive bust I remember and you could see it coming in real time even as a young elementary school weenie. The snow was originally supposed to start that Friday night or predawn Saturday morning. I was watching the evening news and they said it was only snowing on parts of LI and the immediate NJ shore but that we should eventually get into the heavy snow during the day on Saturday. That was the first “hint” that things weren’t exactly going as originally planned.
 

Then I wake up Saturday morning to overcast but it was kind of thin. You could see the disc of the sun at times. The local noontime broadcast showed snow on the Cape. It was snowing lightly with a few inches there but we have bare ground still. Then Barry Burbank comes on at noontime weather segment and says the snow might not start until late afternoon. This is when I started getting that pit in my stomach. 
 

I think I stared at the spotlight out back for almost two hours straight between 6-8pm without seeing a flake in the beam of light. Then I finally saw a few weenie flakes before bed around 830-9pm. It snowed all night and finally stopped about mid morning. The storm still ended up a bust but at least we didn’t get shutout like many others I would learn only years later. We finished with about 4” of arctic sand after the original forecast on Friday had been 1-2 feet. Parts of the cape verified with double digits. 

What a disaster that was…didn’t get one flake. I was beside myself. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

32 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 24-25, 1989 was the first massive bust I remember and you could see it coming in real time even as a young elementary school weenie. The snow was originally supposed to start that Friday night or predawn Saturday morning. I was watching the evening news and they said it was only snowing on parts of LI and the immediate NJ shore but that we should eventually get into the heavy snow during the day on Saturday. That was the first “hint” that things weren’t exactly going as originally planned.
 

Then I wake up Saturday morning to overcast but it was kind of thin. You could see the disc of the sun at times. The local noontime broadcast showed snow on the Cape. It was snowing lightly with a few inches there but we have bare ground still. Then Barry Burbank comes on at noontime weather segment and says the snow might not start until late afternoon. This is when I started getting that pit in my stomach. 
 

I think I stared at the spotlight out back for almost two hours straight between 6-8pm without seeing a flake in the beam of light. Then I finally saw a few weenie flakes before bed around 830-9pm. It snowed all night and finally stopped about mid morning. The storm still ended up a bust but at least we didn’t get shutout like many others I would learn only years later. We finished with about 4” of arctic sand after the original forecast on Friday had been 1-2 feet. Parts of the cape verified with double digits. 

I actually drove to the Cape with a few friends for that one.  10" in Chatham with a lot of drifting, as I recall.

[weathafella]

1 hour ago, FXWX said:

Ignorance was bliss back in the day!  Depression and disappointment were what happened in the 24-hr run up to a storm event when you noted negative trends in the latest 500 mb analysis (often hand plotted), or during the onset period of the storm when obs from the Middle Atlantic indicated a snow to rain flip was likely, or the track might be trending too far east for big snows!!!!!  While many on this board we're not around to "enjoy" the low information era, it had its pluses!

We’re probably close age.  I remember as a hungry snow weenie around age 11 waiting for the forecast which included 2 additional days and when you listened and heard “the outlook for Saturday and Sunday is sunny and cold Saturday.  Increasing cloudiness and continued cold Sunday indicating a chance.  That was good enough back then.  But then again the internet opened us up to a world that revealed so many just like us.  Before the net we had this “weird obsession with weather”

[Snowcrazed71]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 24-25, 1989 was the first massive bust I remember and you could see it coming in real time even as a young elementary school weenie. The snow was originally supposed to start that Friday night or predawn Saturday morning. I was watching the evening news and they said it was only snowing on parts of LI and the immediate NJ shore but that we should eventually get into the heavy snow during the day on Saturday. That was the first “hint” that things weren’t exactly going as originally planned.
 

Then I wake up Saturday morning to overcast but it was kind of thin. You could see the disc of the sun at times. The local noontime broadcast showed snow on the Cape. It was snowing lightly with a few inches there but we have bare ground still. Then Barry Burbank comes on at noontime weather segment and says the snow might not start until late afternoon. This is when I started getting that pit in my stomach. 
 

I think I stared at the spotlight out back for almost two hours straight between 6-8pm without seeing a flake in the beam of light. Then I finally saw a few weenie flakes before bed around 830-9pm. It snowed all night and finally stopped about mid morning. The storm still ended up a bust but at least we didn’t get shutout like many others I would learn only years later. We finished with about 4” of arctic sand after the original forecast on Friday had been 1-2 feet. Parts of the cape verified with double digits. 

I remember the storm too. They gave us early dismissal at school. I lived in Fairfield, Connecticut. I was a senior in high school. We waited and waited and waited. It was a bust. We were disappointed but it was still fun as I was with all my friends. Just hanging out. Having supposed snowstorm party LOL ( to be honest, I don't even know if we had any accumulation )

[CoastalWx]

Then (at least for me) was the greatest positive bust I've ever seen, 3/31-4/1 1997. There's something about that one where I feel nothing will ever surmount it.

[HoarfrostHubb]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then (at least for me) was the greatest positive bust I've ever seen, 3/31-4/1 1997. There's something about that one where I feel nothing will ever surmount it.

Rocktober here was close to that.   As was 3/14/23.  

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Feb 24-25, 1989 was the first massive bust I remember and you could see it coming in real time even as a young elementary school weenie. The snow was originally supposed to start that Friday night or predawn Saturday morning. I was watching the evening news and they said it was only snowing on parts of LI and the immediate NJ shore but that we should eventually get into the heavy snow during the day on Saturday. That was the first “hint” that things weren’t exactly going as originally planned.
 

Then I wake up Saturday morning to overcast but it was kind of thin. You could see the disc of the sun at times. The local noontime broadcast showed snow on the Cape. It was snowing lightly with a few inches there but we have bare ground still. Then Barry Burbank comes on at noontime weather segment and says the snow might not start until late afternoon. This is when I started getting that pit in my stomach. 
 

I think I stared at the spotlight out back for almost two hours straight between 6-8pm without seeing a flake in the beam of light. Then I finally saw a few weenie flakes before bed around 830-9pm. It snowed all night and finally stopped about mid morning. The storm still ended up a bust but at least we didn’t get shutout like many others I would learn only years later. We finished with about 4” of arctic sand after the original forecast on Friday had been 1-2 feet. Parts of the cape verified with double digits. 

i never experienced "busts" until i migrated from michigan back in the mid 1980s to this region of the country.   

the night of the epic cleveland super bomb of january 25, 1978 the dial-up forecast was "winter storm warning in effect for 6 to 10" of snow...   so i guess in the relative sense that was destined to be a bust seeing as we got 32", and blizzard conditions that raged for 22 straight hours, before taking another 30 hours to completely dwindle.   but i mean busting like either not getting anything, or, getting everything when forecast to not getting anything.    that kind of extreme, i've only experienced in southern new england.  

biggest neg bust, jan 1987   4th period blizzard watch with 72 straight hours of dire ticker tape scrolls about national guard this and stocking up that dystopia. wake up ... partly sunny.  and add insult to the 0 order bust ... it was 9f with 30+ mph wind gusts and i had to walk to school.    

biggest positive bust,  dec 1997   forecast 1-2" of slush ending as light rain, highs in the mid 30s.   actual?  17" of snow in 4.5 hours and temperatures never made it above 27 

as to this ordeal...i'm not sure this is even a 'bust' per se.  i don't think anything was that locked in.   i guess in a fair sense we can say it is 'pattern' bust?  i mean, typically you don't send a -1 sd to +2.5 pna across the continent and having jack shit to show for it...

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Then (at least for me) was the greatest positive bust I've ever seen, 3/31-4/1 1997. There's something about that one where I feel nothing will ever surmount it.

Then fast-forward 8 months the same year…unreal positive bust over interior for 12/23/97