Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[dryslot]

It’s useful range is the day after the event.

[40/70 Benchmark]

That Xmas deal just seems like some mixed festive/grinchy snow/rain showers.

[Typhoon Tip]

'syzygy' storm, 1986 i believe it was.   then later on 10 years later, the 'megalopolis blizzard,'  1996  ... at first i was thinking there's been a dearth (historically ) of events in the first 10 days of january's. then i'm like, whaaaa.    i think it's just the last 10 year's worth of winters doing a fantastic job at gaslighting my memory ..heh.  

starting to like the 2-6th

edit,wrong thread -

[Kitz Craver]

45 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I kept hearing via texts and posts about inv trough. Whatever, Glory be to Rev Kev.

True, the reasoning for whatever snow was to fall waffled a bit

[CoastalWx]

NAM will be meh too. What a surprise.

[CoastalWx]

Probably will look like the globals.

[dryslot]

Head fake

[ORH_wxman]

Yep, back SE

[CoastalWx]

What a garbage model lol. 

[Kitz Craver]

Ant… weather channel said hedging bets on measurable snow for Central Park with this. Hoping for the best for ya!

[Kitz Craver]

Edit: guess not, LOL

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

What a garbage model lol. 

Total whiff just some light rain for extreme SE MASS lmao 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Ant… weather channel said hedging bets on measurable snow for Central Park with this. Hoping for the best for ya!

Car topper for me

[dendrite]

The NAM heel turn we all truly saw coming. 

[ineedsnow]

The NAM does chase convection though on this run..

[CoastalWx]

Cape may get a couple or so.

[MJO812]

Nam went from the snowiest model to nothing. 

[dryslot]

Going to have to wait until Jan now for anything.

[ORH_wxman]

The 06z Euro is more impressive than the NAM now

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

I keep chasing the snowiest models...

 

[Typhoon Tip]

the nam has a nw bias at 60 hours.  

been pointing this out for years really ...

it seems this simple aspect just cannot penetrate heads -

so what happens in situations like this, over and over again ( and in a faster/gradient hemisphere as of late, this is common) any 'nw run' of that model, and there's this palpable giddiness that appears to not include the necessary constraint.   

this time - admittedly - it's a little more difficult because the euro appeared to be a little closer ... yeah, so there's empathy in the set-up 'miss-guidance' intangible here.   i get it.   

i think the back ground is what is toasting this scenario.   i mean there's a storm on the maps.  a fairly strong one at that.  ns should do well...etc.  but the back ground state of the local hemisphere has too much x-coordinate value to underpinning wave signal.   that i'm firmly confident is related to a badly timed phase 5 mjo dispersing it's turd into an otherwise impressive +pna surge.  bit of a destructive/negative interference that quite arithmetically dimmed the ability of this particular atmospheric cinema's interval to really go meridian enough

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

 

Not even expecting anything here to be honest

[ariof]

Congrats Nova Scotia

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM moving east too...12z suite definitely saw something that is causing the eastward bump.

[CoastalWx]

We all know it has a bias, I don't think anyone expected the outcome it had from previous runs. Hopefully the sand dunes can grab a couple.

[CoastalWx]

I going to the old Top of the Hub on Friday night. I wonder if its going to be snowing at 720' or whatever it is.

[Typhoon Tip]

lol, what's the expression?    'we've been nam'ed' 

[Damage In Tolland]

Until the stefs lose it , Tony and Ineedsnow are on board 

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM moving east too...12z suite definitely saw something that is causing the eastward bump.

you know i remember back in the day .. they used to have a product/publication over at wpc called 'model diagnostic discussion'     it was based upon at least a cursory evaluation of the input grid to ferret out errors in the data that could effect the model processing out in time.   they'd even give recommendations.   like, 'recommend not weighting as much of the eta'  or the euro or mrf or ngm.  oh man, do you remember the "n"ot "g"ood "m"odel ?      just kidding, 'nested grid model'  

it may be that improvements in data and/or assimilations and both et al, got to where they figured they didn't need that. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

you know i remember back in the day .. they used to have a product/publication over at wpc called 'model diagnostic discussion'     it was based upon at least a cursory evaluation of the input grid to ferret out errors in the data that could effect the model processing out in time.   they'd even give recommendations.   like, 'recommend not weighting as much of the eta'  or the euro or mrf or ngm.  oh man, do you remember the "n"ot "g"ood "m"odel ?      just kidding, 'nested grid model'  

it may be that improvements in data and/or assimilations and both et al, got to where they figured they didn't need that. 

I remember that....mistake discontinuing it. Didn't realize that they had.