Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[DJln491]

Drunk uncle getting into the eggnog. I’d gladly sign for that inch or two

[SouthCoastMA]

So close..need about one more 20-25 mile tic on globals. RGEM has been liquid here on every run, and kinda meh

[Damage In Tolland]

Few to a couple inches for all of SNE. Should look and feel like winter 

[Snowcrazed71]

  On 12/19/2024 at 11:03 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Few to a couple inches for all of SNE. Should look and feel like winter 

Expand  

Yes, and from what I'm seeing four for next week into New Year, the warm-up has settled back. Temperatures seem to stay into the 30s until midweek next week now, and then the low 40s towards the end of the week. Originally they were showing getting close to 50 

[dryslot]

06z Euro a couple ticks NW of the 0z run.

[MJO812]

  On 12/19/2024 at 11:24 AM, dryslot said:

06z Euro a couple ticks NW of the 0z run.

Expand  

Yep

[ORH_wxman]

One more bump NW at 12z puts much of eastern zones in the CCB. But can’t afford any regression on the trend. 

[MJO812]

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/19/2024 at 11:45 AM, ORH_wxman said:

One more bump NW at 12z puts much of eastern zones in the CCB. But can’t afford any regression on the trend. 

Expand  

weenie question   but could this be one of those times where the CCB ends up further west as we often see?

[UnitedWx]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:25 PM, ineedsnow said:

weenie question   but could this be one of those times where the CCB ends up further west as we often see?

Expand  

In this case to my eyes, the question would be... where does that upper trough end up? Maybe some minor enhancement from that?

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:25 PM, ineedsnow said:

weenie question   but could this be one of those times where the CCB ends up further west as we often see?

Expand  

Been thinking about that. You’re talking deformation stuff I think. It’s possible,  but usually that’s when those systems really wrap up. This one is progressive as it wraps up so I think that limits western extent. Something to watch.

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:34 PM, CoastalWx said:

Been thinking about that. You’re talking deformation stuff I think. It’s possible,  it usually that’s when those systems really wrap up. This one is progressive as it wraps up so I think that limits western extent. Something to watch.

Expand  

ok I thought so but figured I would ask.. Thanks

[CoastalWx]

My worst fear (and quite possible) is that this flashes to a blue bomb in SE MA in that rt 3 to rt 24 corridor to my south and I’m left looking at a coating Saturday morning. 
That would be the third time in a row I’d have to go south to get my winter fix lol. And yes I would take the kids there.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/19/2024 at 10:24 AM, MJO812 said:

Congrats on ukie

Expand  

I don't know how many times I have seen that inverse of that exact gradient over the course of the last several years....about time.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/19/2024 at 11:03 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Few to a couple inches for all of SNE. Should look and feel like winter 

Expand  

Gotta give you props for your instinct on this if I'm being fair. I wasn't feeling it....caveat being lets see how the plane lands because its not yet on the runway.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta give you props for your instinct on this if I'm being fair. I wasn't feeling it....caveat being lets see how the plane lands because its not yet on the runway.

Expand  

Well if we are fair, he was calling it due to an inv trough. If this is more widespread, it's because it backed up way west.

[Bryan63]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:45 PM, CoastalWx said:

My worst fear (and quite possible) is that this flashes to a blue bomb in SE MA in that rt 3 to rt 24 corridor to my south and I’m left looking at a coating Saturday morning. 
That would be the third time in a row I’d have to go south to get my winter fix lol. And yes I would take the kids there.

Expand  

If that happens you're more than welcome down here in the Boro

[dendrite]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well if we are fair, he was calling it due to an inv trough. If this is more widespread, it's because it backed up way west.

Expand  

To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

[CoastalWx]

We all appreciate Kevin, even if his reasoning makes us want to rip our brains out.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:56 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Gotta give you props for your instinct on this if I'm being fair. I wasn't feeling it....caveat being lets see how the plane lands because its not yet on the runway.

Expand  

Still time to load the bed .. but the overall look seemed to favor snow across the area based on past experiences 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/19/2024 at 12:58 PM, CoastalWx said:

Well if we are fair, he was calling it due to an inv trough. If this is more widespread, it's because it backed up way west.

Expand  

I thought he was arguing the storm was going to shift west?

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/19/2024 at 1:15 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I thought he was arguing the storm was going to shift west?

Expand  

I kept hearing via texts and posts about inv trough. Whatever, Glory be to Rev Kev.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Planning having a nice festive family day on Saturday...out to breakfast and then to the mall to have the kids see Santa...having a couple of inches of currier and ives to add to the overall holiday ambiance would be the quite the memory and really add to the experience.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/19/2024 at 1:17 PM, CoastalWx said:

I kept hearing via texts and posts about inv trough. Whatever, Glory be to Rev Kev.

Expand  

I know I saw some posts to the effect that it could come back and be a light to moderate event, but I haven't been able to be gluded to his place like I usually am.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/19/2024 at 1:18 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Planning having a nice festive family day on Saturday...out to breakfast and then to the mall to have the kids see Santa...having a couple of inches of currier and ives to add to the overall holiday ambiance would be the quite the memory and really add to the experience.

Expand  

Will they be sitting on your lap then?

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/19/2024 at 1:20 PM, CoastalWx said:

Will they be sitting on your lap then?

Expand  

?

[40/70 Benchmark]

Euro is still like 1-2"....not sure I am ready to by some of these 3-4" amounts....at least in my area.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/19/2024 at 1:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

?

Expand  

Bad joke, was insinuating you would be Santa. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/19/2024 at 1:25 PM, CoastalWx said:

Bad joke, was insinuating you would be Santa. 

Expand  

Nah, hence the trip to the mall.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like HRRR will be south. FWIW anyways....still out of its useful range.