Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

H5 closes off over the NC/SC border.

That dug quite a bit more. 

[weathafella]

That’s 3-5 here.  Upping the ante some.

[George001]

My issue is it’s the NAM outside 24 hours. Not having the globals on board is a big red flag

[CoastalWx]

3K isn’t buying it.

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, George001 said:

My issue is it’s the NAM outside 24 hours. Not having the globals on board is a big red flag

inside 48 hours so globals got less weight

[ineedsnow]

shift it west 75 more miles

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

3K isn’t buying it.

It's still more amped than 18z

[dryslot]

Pretty tight sharp cuttoff to the precip field on the NAM

[CoastalWx]

Yeah it’s tough to buy without other models agreeing.

[Prismshine Productions]

or take an hour and a half drive @ineedsnow

[HIPPYVALLEY]

I'm in the Boston area all weekend so hopefully something wintery manifests.

[ineedsnow]

[MJO812]

My final guess

East coast snowstorm

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Boston gets 4

[ineedsnow]

[brooklynwx99]

if the SREFs weren’t literally the worst i’d be more inclined to believe them

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

We only bust out the freshmen models during KU’s but in 2024, we desperate.

[weathafella]

Also aren’t srefs run off of NAM initialization?  So 21z would be off of 18z NAM?

[NorEastermass128]

What’s the ICON showing?

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Also aren’t srefs run off of NAM initialization?  So 21z would be off of 18z NAM?

so 3z will be epic

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

13 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Ray gets 2” of sand while Carver gets 14” of paste, that surely would put him in the Christmas spirit 

[Prismshine Productions]

2 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

What’s the ICON showing?

just started to run, gotta wait

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I truly do respect the commitment to pain a lot of folks have. Willing to do this to themselves again tonight 

[Prismshine Productions]

0z ICON out to hr24, s/w slightly digging more and the energy in the Atlantic is off the Outer Banks so that is further east

[NorEastermass128]

6 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

just started to run, gotta wait

I’m on the edge of my seat. 

[Prismshine Productions]

ICON at 36- heights are slightly higher over the NE, trough is digging and axis a little sharper

[40/70 Benchmark]

That is some dual diagnosis shit when we have people doing PBP of the ICON...jesus.

 

[ineedsnow]

Icon is meh

[Typhoon Tip]

nam typically is nw of guidance means at 60 hr