Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. Gotta hope for the IVT to rotate through New England for some festive coatings or so and hope the Christmas shortwave is legit. 

Enjoy a couple fresh inches Friday night. No need to even cap tip . Just enjoy 

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy a couple fresh inches Friday night. No need to even cap tip . Just enjoy 

We cautiously optimistic. Saturday might be festive looking too.

[Snowcrazed71]

57 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I had to break out the SREF . Desperate times.

Now.. if this happens.. I'll kiss you ( as you said....despaarte times ).. lol

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

We cautiously optimistic. Saturday might be festive looking too.

OT but Christmas Eve too into early Xmas day.   Shows how good patterns can whiff and bad patterns can produce.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

OT but Christmas Eve too into early Xmas day.   Shows how good patterns can whiff and bad patterns can produce.

Congrats on the Reggie 4" Friday into Friday night.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

OT but Christmas Eve too into early Xmas day.   Shows how good patterns can whiff and bad patterns can produce.

 

[weathafella]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on the Reggie 4" Friday into Friday night.

There seems to be persistent cj signaling with the Friday system extending residence time for the snow.

[rclab]

3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Now.. if this happens.. I'll kiss you ( as you said....despaarte times ).. lol

Snowcrazed71 … I m not sure what frightens me more ……. Your “Now..if this happens” or Anthony’s clapping emoji reaction. Stay well, hopeful and chaste. As always ….

[Prismshine Productions]

...I really need to stop falling asleep for model runs

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Congrats on the Reggie 4" Friday into Friday night.

Thanks . Hope you can cash in too !

[Bryan63]

I'm all in on Saturday, life's too short not to get excited.

It's the hope that kills ya

[Snowcrazed71]

30 minutes ago, rclab said:

Snowcrazed71 … I m not sure what frightens me more ……. Your “Now..if this happens” or Anthony’s clapping emoji reaction. Stay well, hopeful and chaste. As always ….

All good! :-)

[Damage In Tolland]

Congrats all 

[Go Kart Mozart]

Thank God I was super busy at work this afternoon.  Didn't get caught up in this,

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Congrats all 

If that 1-2 plays out like that..that could get me close to normal Dec snow. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS isn’t any better either. It still has that CF enhanced area and introduces a bit of PVA to maybe help out. But the main goods are still comfortably offshore unlike NAM and short range stuff. 

Yeah I’m out on more than a couple of inches at most. We had a shot at a bigger storm but things didn’t pan out. The north trend has not continued since 0z.

[MJO812]

Sref more amped

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Sref more amped

Don’t do this to yourself 

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Don’t do this to yourself 

I'm all in

0z Models will be great 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, MJO812 said:

I'm all in

0z Models will be great 

Then when they aren’t, you’ll go bi-polar on us, and say how bad the models are.  Maybe pump the breaks… 

[MJO812]

[Go Kart Mozart]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I'm all in

0z Models will be great 

The most important runs of the last five years.

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Then when they aren’t, you’ll go bi-polar on us, and say how bad the models are.  Maybe pump the breaks… 

He needs hope. Who among us hasn’t been there. In recent days.  

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

He needs hope. Who among us hasn’t been there. In recent days.  

Lol, ya I get it.  Sometimes fantasy is just easier than reality. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Sref more amped

Oh lord we at the stage for the SREF we are cooked

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s been a decade since we’ve seen a trend hard positive this close in.

It’s just physically not in the cards. Way to much ground to make up 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s been a decade since we’ve seen a trend hard positive this close in.

It’s just physically not in the cards. Way to much ground to make up 

Not sure I agree with that last sentence there…

We are in fact missing this (as is in model ) meteorologically by a very slim margin for error. 

[weathafella]

I do remember during severe obsession days checking off first the dgex aka defect, then the srefs a few hours later, then NAM etc.  back in the early 2000s euro only ran a 12z suite, few had access to anything other than course maps in 24 hour intervals.   You weenies have no idea how hard it will be for you to get sober!

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I do remember during severe obsession days checking off first the dgex aka defect, then the srefs a few hours later, then NAM etc.  back in the early 2000s euro only ran a 12z suite, few had access to anything other than course maps in 24 hour intervals.   You weenies have no idea how hard it will be for you to get sober!

The old SREFs made up of ETA and RSM models were actually half-decent synoptically. The newer stuff with ARW and NMB members are really good with short term convection but they go crazy synoptically. Just not their design. 

[SouthCoastMA]

We need to keep the bad models around so I can get my virtual inches. Almost as good as the real thing