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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

Snowcrazed71
Snowcrazed71

Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL   

40/70 Benchmark
40/70 Benchmark

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

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George001

George001

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  On 12/18/2024 at 9:51 PM, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS isn’t any better either. It still has that CF enhanced area and introduces a bit of PVA to maybe help out. But the main goods are still comfortably offshore unlike NAM and short range stuff. 

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Yeah I’m out on more than a couple of inches at most. We had a shot at a bigger storm but things didn’t pan out. The north trend has not continued since 0z.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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  On 12/19/2024 at 1:01 AM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

It’s been a decade since we’ve seen a trend hard positive this close in.

It’s just physically not in the cards. Way to much ground to make up 

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Not sure I agree with that last sentence there…

We are in fact missing this (as is in model ) meteorologically by a very slim margin for error. 

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weathafella

weathafella

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I do remember during severe obsession days checking off first the dgex aka defect, then the srefs a few hours later, then NAM etc.  back in the early 2000s euro only ran a 12z suite, few had access to anything other than course maps in 24 hour intervals.   You weenies have no idea how hard it will be for you to get sober!

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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  On 12/19/2024 at 1:04 AM, weathafella said:

I do remember during severe obsession days checking off first the dgex aka defect, then the srefs a few hours later, then NAM etc.  back in the early 2000s euro only ran a 12z suite, few had access to anything other than course maps in 24 hour intervals.   You weenies have no idea how hard it will be for you to get sober!

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The old SREFs made up of ETA and RSM models were actually half-decent synoptically. The newer stuff with ARW and NMB members are really good with short term convection but they go crazy synoptically. Just not their design. 

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