Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[ORH_wxman]

Oh jeez. Just when we’re trying to let go of the larger solution. This run very well might get the CCB into SE areas. 

[CoastalWx]

So close lol. 

[weathafella]

Certainly depicts a nice dump SE of BOS near the canal and a small tick away from nailing Boston and metro west.

[ORH_wxman]

Cape and adjacent SE MA gets a grazing blow from the CCB. Prob a moderate event there 

[weathafella]

Channeling Dylan’s narrative in the song the Hurricane “wait a minute boys, this one’s not dead”

[wxsniss]

Destructive interference from that lead vorticity and we just miss a significant event... if this were a single isolated model run, I'd be tempted to attribute the disconnect between H5 and surface low position as runaway convection

48-60 hrs out, still not unrealistic for this to weigh the lead annoying energy slightly less as we get closer

[NorEastermass128]

Trying my best to work some of my birthday magic to pull this NW. 

[WinterWolf]

You guys in SE areas are gonna get some…she’s backing that ass up.  Get ready. 

[CoastalWx]

Gonna need the CCB or it's white rain in between the CF and CCB.

[NorEastermass128]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Gonna need the CCB or it's white rain in between the CF and CCB.

Expecting that here. The North Shore…where snow comes to die or never show up at all. 

[MJO812]

[brooklynwx99]

weaker energy over the SE likely made a difference

[Kitz Craver]

35 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

18z NAM trying to get violent.

Don’t do it.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Don’t do it.

You don't have to tell me that lol.

[Snowcrazed71]

21 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Is this something we can put some stock into, or is this a tiny chance? Just not sure how much doctor put into this particular model

[dryslot]

16 minutes ago, Kitz Craver said:

Don’t do it.

Ha i was just coming in to say this.....lol

[weathafella]

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

No shame.  Anthony you’re better than this 

[Damage In Tolland]

26 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Norlun 

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

No shame.  Anthony you’re better than this 

I had to break out the SREF . Desperate times.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I had to break out the SREF . Desperate times.

Do they crush?

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Do they crush?

Usually just hopes.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually just hopes.

And dreams, That use to be SnowNH's line.

[mahk_webstah]

You guys are funny

[dryslot]

Surprise no comment on the 18z ICON

[Chrisrotary12]

Can’t wait to be under cloudy gray skies while others get snow. 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Can’t wait to be under cloudy gray skies while others get snow. 

Thanks!

[ORH_wxman]

18z GFS isn’t any better either. It still has that CF enhanced area and introduces a bit of PVA to maybe help out. But the main goods are still comfortably offshore unlike NAM and short range stuff. 

[ariof]

Me, watching models update.

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

18z GFS isn’t any better either. It still has that CF enhanced area and introduces a bit of PVA to maybe help out. But the main goods are still comfortably offshore unlike NAM and short range stuff. 

Yeah. Gotta hope for the IVT to rotate through New England for some festive coatings or so and hope the Christmas shortwave is legit. 

[weathafella]

I’ll take the 1-3 I get from gfs at this point.