Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[WinterWolf]

3 hours ago, dryslot said:

You know all of you will take a look, Its like dopamine.

 

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I honestly will not....but if somehow I woke up and it looked good, then I'd be hooked.

 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dryslot said:

In many instances when the models show a norlun feature NW, That represents a SLP placement to the left of modeled guidance.

Said this earlier today. 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s mildly interesting. Need to continue seeing bigger shifts though for most to be in the game for real.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Said this earlier today. 

As much as the Nam gets dumped on, Its sniffed some of these out, Noted this last winter on a few occasions.

[WinterWolf]

10 hours ago, WinterWolf said:

What I meant is, sometimes the models will do that Norlun stuff, when they don’t know exactly where to put the SLP.  And sometimes(not all the time), that can be indicative of a move westward in later runs.  
 

Certainly not trying to wishcast anything, but I was just wondering if that is why we keep seeing this Norlun idea? 

 

[wxsniss]

All 0z guidance so far jumped in same direction... a good sign as responsible pieces of energy are just approaching BC 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

 

We just don’t know. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it does not. Is this the time it does? No one knows but stay tuned and we might. 

[ineedsnow]

GEFS actually a bit east of 18z

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

As much as the Nam gets dumped on, Its sniffs some of these out, Noted this last winter on a few occasions.

Agreed Jeff. We’ve seen it back further than that a few times too.  Maybe it was January of 16 with the mid Atlantic blizzard(if not maybe somebody can correct me), it was the first model to start creeping it north. Ended up being correct. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s mildly interesting. Need to continue seeing bigger shifts though for most to be in the game for real.

Blizzard for sema at 6z. 

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We just don’t know. Sometimes it happens, sometimes it does not. Is this the time it does? No one knows but stay tuned and we might. 

Obviously we know now.   

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

Agreed Jeff. We’ve seen it back further than that a few times too.  Maybe it was January of 16 with the mid Atlantic blizzard(if not maybe somebody can correct me), it was the first model to start creeping it north. Ended up being correct. 

Need to see improvements now continue without regression.

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have 3 kids and a pregnant wife and let me know when you get to bed, chief.

 

13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re the one who told us you weren’t gonna be looking at 0z.  Lol

 

10 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

 

 

 

[ineedsnow]

off to bed hoping for good trends to continue

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Blizzard for sema at 6z. 

And flurries back this way while an IVT drops 4-8 in NY and NJ

[HIPPYVALLEY]

21 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just beat....kids killed me tonight.

 

Ha, not killed just wounded. 

Nap anytime you get the chance.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

10 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Ha, not killed just wounded. 

Nap anytime you get the chance.

 

Sick daughter finally asleep. I'm out.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Sick daughter finally asleep. I'm out.

I applaud you on raising a big family.  Wife and I started late and were one and done.

[WxWatcher007]

Euro looked a touch better to me, but again, for this to be more meaningful for more of the region we probably need continued significant shifts. 

[wxsniss]

Euro definite improvement vs. 12z... trough looked more promising than surface reflection, but continued trend of slightly more negative tilt and vort more consolidated

Verbatim still just a very minor event for Cape / SEMA

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This storm will be tantalizingly close for Boston metro but probably a rug pull.  Hope something happens since I will be staying in Cambridge over the weekend.

[George001]

I liked what I saw from the 0z globals tonight. Models are still too far east but I like the overall setup for my area.

[Roger Smith]

It's quite a productive low at present, seeing 1-2" an hour in past few hours (n of Spokane at border). Perhaps models will pick up some new data as the low tracks towards n plains states. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Pimeshine is fired from “Play by Play” that’s for sure….  It just starts getting real, and he disappears.  

This gal fell asleep, not my fault

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[Prismshine Productions]

6z NAM overall was way less precip from both systems

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[CoastalWx]

Yeah 6z definitely was flaccid.

[CoastalWx]

Some signs NE MA to Nrn RI could see some CF enhancement with 1-3” or so.

[Prismshine Productions]

6z GFS drier

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[Kitz Craver]

Freaking a 100 post update, sigh, thought she was coming…

[Prismshine Productions]

Freaking a 100 post update, sigh, thought she was coming…

In all seriousness I would trade the system this weekend for a White Christmas, and I am sure I am not alone in that thought

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