Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[brooklynwx99]

wow

[dryslot]

More then just a couple tics, Pretty good shift actually.

[MJO812]

[CoastalWx]

Man so close. Cape paster

[tunafish]

3 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

wow

If I'm interpreting correctly, the main reason is the feature over Alberta as well as the one NE of the Bahamas.

[dryslot]

Getting a late tug back.

[cleetussnow]

Thats pretty fuckin close.  A little outside and not bob ueker outside…

[dryslot]

Getting a bit more ridging out ahead of the slp.

[ORH_wxman]

Yeah this is really darned close for E MA to a major storm. Need another tick for it to happen but at least it doesn’t require a miracle now. That shortwave is starting to look like something signficiant…that cyclonic curvature like Tip mentioned is notable. 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, dryslot said:

Getting a bit more ridging out ahead of the slp.

WNE is out of this but we have about a day to correct this for the Eastern peeps.

[Boston Bulldog]

Every tick counts in the upper levels. The more you can buckle the flow downstream of the trough axis, the more the baroclinic leaf can develop to the NW. While the actual SLP doesn't trend a ton from 18z to 0z, the precip shield is definitely more expansive

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still useless from my perspective....

[brooklynwx99]

much stronger trailing vort on the CMC too

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

WNE is out of this but we have about a day to correct this for the Eastern peeps.

Scooter’s family needs this. 

[WinterWolf]

Pimeshine is fired from “Play by Play” that’s for sure….  It just starts getting real, and he disappears.  

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still useless from my perspective....

It still needs some decent work, and I’d be wary of a few cycle head fake only to fade back easy in the final 60 hours. 
 

we’ve seen that a lot in the last 3-4 years too

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, gonna need to take the laptop to work and assess tomorrow....gut says it ends up mainly a c*ck tease.

[dryslot]

Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

WNE is out of this but we have about a day to correct this for the Eastern peeps.

Its not looking good here as well unless we can get this trough to dig more and go negative sooner but folks to the east should watch it closer now.

[FXWX]

I think we can start getting excited for far southeastern Mass / Cape.  Although the increasingly dynamic look to the short wave could open the door to a westward adjustment, which in turn could trend the Cape warmer?  At least a trackable event for a portion of SNE...

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Still useless from my perspective....

You’re supposed to be in bed. 

[WxWatcher007]

Just now, FXWX said:

I think we can start getting excited for far southeastern Mass / Cape.  Although the increasingly dynamic look to the short wave could open the door to a westward adjustment, which in turn could trend the Cape warmer?  At least a trackable event for a portion of SNE...

God love em but we need the r/s line about 50 miles west of them  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I love the buns from people for not working myself into a lather over some light snow on the cape that needs an inexorable trend for the final 72 hours to be anything more. Let me remind myself to massage my prostate to that before bed.

[rimetree]

Probably still a NS special but hoping the NAM/RGEM showing at least something falling outside the Cape is real.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, WinterWolf said:

You’re supposed to be in bed. 

Have 3 kids and a pregnant wife and let me know when you get to bed, chief.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I love the buns from people for not working myself into a lather over some light snow on the cape that needs an inexorable trend for the final 72 hours to be anything more. Let me remind myself to massage my prostate to that before bed.

lol relax i just thought it was funny after all of the hyped up analysis. nothing personal

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

lol relax i just thought it was funny after all of the hyped up analysis

I'm just beat....kids killed me tonight.

 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Have 3 kids and a pregnant wife and let me know when you get to bed, chief.

You’re the one who told us you weren’t gonna be looking at 0z.  Lol

[dryslot]

In many instances when the models show a norlun feature NW, That represents a SLP placement to the left of modeled guidance.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm just beat....kids killed me tonight.

 

We know you’re going for an NBA starting lineup but you may have to pull the plug early and quit one short.

[ineedsnow]

CMC is much better