Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[George001]

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:47 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Jesus that’s so close to a really big hit in E MA

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I’d like to see globals show something similar to this NAM run tonight. Even a bit worse would be fine.

[CoastalWx]

Temps borderline SE of BOS for a bit, but gotta play with fire to get the goods 

[dryslot]

We have piqued a bit more interest i see.

[ROOSTA]

Looks kind of toasty S of the border!
How many times do you have to see the NAM off its rocker.
I'm not biting yet, need model agreement.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:49 AM, George001 said:

I’d like to see globals show something similar to this NAM run tonight. Even a bit worse would be fine.

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Yeah it’s meaningless if it’s only the NAM making this trend at 00z. I think that’s a given any time we view the NAM. Might give it a little more weight if the event was inside 36h. 

[dryslot]

You won't get much help from the GFS at 0z i think on a coastal, It really struggled a few systems back until closer in, But the Euro will give you an indicator.

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:53 AM, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah it’s meaningless if it’s only the NAM making this trend at 00z. I think that’s a given any time we view the NAM. Might give it a little more weigh if the event was inside 36h. 

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while I agree the nam is not trustworthy in that range per averages, in this particular case i’d caution it’s more telling

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:54 AM, dryslot said:

You won't get much help from the GFS at 0z i think on a coastal, It really struggled a few systems back until closer in, But the Euro will give you an indicator.

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gfs made the greatest adjustment west side of all of them last run. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

NAM definitely upped its involvement of the trailing energy this run. going to have to keep an eye on this feature

[dryslot]

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:56 AM, Typhoon Tip said:

gfs made the greatest adjustment west side of all of them last run. 

 

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Didn't look at the 18z run but yes, Looks it did.

[FXWX]

Forget the fine details when using the NAM but don't dismiss it's large-scale feature trends.  Still enough time for this trend to play out more favorable, and given its now just at the range of better sampling, keep an open mind on the NAM trends.  Personally with 2 snow starved grandkids on the Cape I'd be perfectly ok with a southeast Mass special...

[CoastalWx]

There’s two snow starved kids and a snow starved dad just south of BOS too.  

[ORH_wxman]

RGEM looks more amped at 57h so far on 00z. 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/18/2024 at 3:11 AM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks more amped at 57h so far on 00z. 

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base of the trough is more consolidated

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/18/2024 at 3:11 AM, ORH_wxman said:

RGEM looks more amped at 57h so far on 00z. 

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Icon looks like dung

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/18/2024 at 1:07 AM, weathafella said:

What value does that have for you?

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I like anomalous wx. Don’t really care about the type. Snow is always preferred over cold and dry but a cold day of yore in a warming climate gets my respect too. 

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:10 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you get what that 10:1 map implies, I'll shave ineedsnow into @CoastalWx's back

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Be careful what you commit to 

Milton got within a few mb  

  On 10/8/2024 at 6:21 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If it beats yesterday's peak, I'll show up at the SNE xmas gathering with @WxWatcher007shaved into my chest.

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  On 10/8/2024 at 9:23 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, I hope Santa brings me a cat 5 trimmer.

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[wxsniss]

Good to be back. So desperate for snow like everyone here / depressed by what seems like a new climate normal, seemingly exactly coinciding with Brady leaving.

At the very least for my toddler to experience snow, he was so excited Jan 7 2024.

One major and somewhat earlier improvement on this 0z NAM is vort max is more consolidated at base of trough... e.g. h54-60 it was previously shmearing out into Tenn / Miss, now more consolidated. We get better trough structure and start to see a negative tilt. This is so close to something much better.

[MJO812]

  On 12/18/2024 at 3:12 AM, ineedsnow said:

Icon looks like dung

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[ineedsnow]

RGEM way better

[brooklynwx99]

wow, you're getting actual PVA now

[dryslot]

  On 12/18/2024 at 3:12 AM, ineedsnow said:

Icon looks like dung

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Its over.

[MJO812]

Rgem is the most amped model

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/18/2024 at 3:14 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I like anomalous wx. Don’t really care about the type. Snow is always preferred over cold and dry but a cold day of yore in a warming climate gets my respect too. 

Be careful what you commit to 

Milton got within a few mb  

 

 

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Luckily for me we cancelled the gathering

[ineedsnow]

this is so close to being fun

[Typhoon Tip]

I like that so far (both the Nam did this also ) you have that short wave anticyclionic curvature starting to materialize ahead of the the trough nadir out there.

that’s usually is a prelude to expansion nw of the b-clinic leaf over the top of that mid-level jet torpedo. 

the low has a chance to jump onto the inside rail so to speak basically tapping into the left entrance region of jet max 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:50 AM, CoastalWx said:

Temps borderline SE of BOS for a bit, but gotta play with fire to get the goods 

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This is another thing to contend with. Even if this did come back and produced a storm, it’s likely there would be issues for many especially eastern ma and se of Bos

[cleetussnow]

  On 12/18/2024 at 2:46 AM, Boston Bulldog said:

Angel on one shoulder telling me it's just the NAM, don't look too deep into it. Devil (weenie?) on the other shoulder telling me to go all in on this trend because we have better sampling now....

 

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[brooklynwx99]

lol GFS is definitely going to be more amped up

[dryslot]

0z GFS is going to b a couple tics NW this run too.

[ineedsnow]

yup it will be better