Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[40/70 Benchmark]

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Think it’s interesting that the jet mechanics are just starting to nose on board into the denser sounding grid out west and right away, we get some modulation here.

I was actually thinking yesterday about how if this was going to make a move, it would prob be the 72-84h mark because that’s when the shortwave is coming onshore. Should be mostly Onshore 12z tomorrow but we’re already getting the front end of it tonight. 
 

If we get a reversion back SE tonight, then that’s a very good indicator given the better sampling…and just the fact we’re closer and the solution got worse. Both of us know from statistics and just years of experience how trends that happen closer to the event are more likely to be real. 

[Go Kart Mozart]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I was actually thinking yesterday about how if this was going to make a move, it would prob be the 72-84h mark because that’s when the shortwave is coming onshore. Should be mostly Onshore 12z tomorrow but we’re already getting the front end of it tonight. 
 

If we get a reversion back SE tonight, then that’s a very good indicator given the better sampling…and just the fact we’re closer and the solution got worse. Both of us know from statistics and just years of experience how trends that happen closer to the event are more likely to be real. 

I wonder if we will revert to the 40" plus from NYC to ACY.

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I have that awful feeling that 0Z will pull back, but here’s to miracles  lol.

Ya, I know what you mean.  But here’s the thing, it’s been gone for a while on most modeling, so there’s really nothing at all to lose with this one. So if it reverts back, no biggy and we all go to bed, and put “it” to bed too. 

[Prismshine Productions]

At the plate: 0z NAM

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[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

might try to stay up if the first runs of 0z look good.. I have to be up at 5:30  

[Prismshine Productions]

Out to hr12 and already some subtle differences

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[40/70 Benchmark]

12 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Out to hr12 and already some subtle differences

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

Must not be good given the 12 min gap.

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Must not be good given the 12 min gap.

high end advisory snows here tomorrow night but its close

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

high end advisory snows here tomorrow night but its close

Edge of my seat for that ...let me know what East Cowrectum gets

[ineedsnow]

10 to 1 would be to high.. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

10 to 1 would be to high.. 

If you get what that 10:1 map implies, I'll shave ineedsnow into @CoastalWx's back

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you get what that 10:1 map implies, I'll shave ineedsnow into @CoastalWx's back

lol 10 to 1 is like 7 to 8    

[ineedsnow]

this run seems almost to different from 18z  but then again its the NAM

[UnitedWx]

1 hour ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Breathless anticipation. 

More like sleep apnea snoring!... I have to be up at 5 anti meridian 

[ineedsnow]

[dryslot]

The nam always sucks them in lol

[ineedsnow]

looks like I'll be up for the 0z suite

[CoastalWx]

Fuck

[brooklynwx99]

too bad this model fucking blows

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The nam always sucks them in lol

we'll see soon but.....   that's what we wanted to see

[ineedsnow]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck

dont do it  

[dryslot]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

We will probably be getting "That" nam run at some point coming up............

 

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Fuck

I didn't think it would be this quick ha ha.

[George001]

I’m in on this threat. Don’t care for the NAM too much this far out, but the other guidance was close enough that it’s worth watching for a plowable snow in my area with another bump north. These 0z runs are going to be big, can’t have any steps back.

[Boston Bulldog]

Angel on one shoulder telling me it's just the NAM, don't look too deep into it. Devil (weenie?) on the other shoulder telling me to go all in on this trend because we have better sampling now....

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Getting warmer...I've gone from open mocking to quiet contemplation...

[ORH_wxman]

Jesus that’s so close to a really big hit in E MA

[dryslot]

Warning snows on the cape that run and a couple more panels it would be in DE Maine as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

too bad this model fucking blows

Mm

flat relays out of the assimilation net can be problematic 

[MJO812]

Nam precip output sucks