Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Prismshine Productions]

white christmas/boxing day via the gfs

 

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:39 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

oh, wait a minute ... that's the ensemble mean.  shit.

well, in that case, that ivt is actually because there some members with either a strong ivt signal or are just bodily west of the mean. 

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still wiggle room

 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:41 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

boxing day blizzard  ( for everyone but tampon tip ) storm   

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Yup…that one too Tip.  

[vegan_edible]

let's watch the new data sets at 00Z. lets seriously put some positive energy out there and hope for the best

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:46 PM, vegan_edible said:

let's watch the new data sets at 00Z. lets seriously put some positive energy out there and hope for the best

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yep

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:46 PM, vegan_edible said:

let's watch the new data sets at 00Z. lets seriously put some positive energy out there and hope for the best

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going ahead a leveling a stereo type bomb here but leave it to an alias that has the word, "vegan" in it to invoke the irrepressible work of angels and demons ... haha

j/k dude

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah there it is in the operational though.  there's an oe signal popping up there in the qpf...   that's a cold nascent high there so that's an interesting factor for the coast... a near miss but strong ene ccb fringe would make it winter like in that solution

gfs, 18z sorry

[Prismshine Productions]

kinda amazed how this run the GFS doesnt really torch after Christmas

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:57 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

kinda amazed how this run the GFS doesnt really torch after Christmas

 

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[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:59 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

 

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XD classic

[vegan_edible]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

going ahead a leveling a stereo type bomb here but leave it to an alias that has the word, "vegan" in it to invoke the irrepressible work of angels and demons ... haha

j/k dude

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its what im here for!

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully Ray has an update on his blog soon. 

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Yea, right after I write on my next bowel movement.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift

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Say it with me..."One more move like that....."

[ORH_wxman]

18z euro trying to scrape the Cape now. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro trying to scrape the Cape now. 

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that was actually a good sized shift

[Kitz Craver]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:34 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

you guys laugh but this is may be a problem 

propulsion: unknown; no heat plumes; invisible to infrared tech

vector:  est 4 to 5g turn maneuvers at low altitude lasting hours; rules out any known electrical energy propulsion system.

source:  unknown apparently from the open ocean, without knowing if they are under or over water.   

detection: optical only; some form of signal management/concealment

  ... either some agency of this world has made some stunning advancements in technology and are figuratively lording it over our heads, or this is the most fantastic hoax ever contrived

 

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Interesting episode for sure

[vegan_edible]

maybe the SER will just ever so softly bump this towards the benchmark... 

jk. i'd take a half inch (pause) for a lovely wintery christmas

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:31 PM, ineedsnow said:

that was actually a good sized shift

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Shift looks to be real. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

For the sake of Christmas in Weymouth…keep trending for his kids.

[ORH_wxman]

If we get another bump NW at 00z, I’d watch for real in SE MA. They only need like 50-60 miles now on some of these solutions to get into the NW side of CCB. 

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:43 PM, WinterWolf said:

Shift looks to be real.

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This has happened a couple times already though. If 0z keeps it up, then maybe

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:45 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

This has happened a couple times already though. If 0z keeps it up, then maybe

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True..but we’re closer in now, and a new player(NS energy on backside of trough phase in) has been introduced, which looks to be causing some changes. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:45 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

This has happened a couple times already though. If 0z keeps it up, then maybe

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Yea. Folks got hoodwinked by last nights nw bump so It needs to happen in several consecutive cycles for it to be more than a windshield wiper effect. If 0z bounces back SE then unplug Scooters tree before he gets thrown into the back of Ant’s squad car…

[WinterWolf]

Ya for sure…it obviously has to continue or it’s just a blip.  18z runs can be quirky, but this looks to be across the model suite for this cycle.  0z will be interesting and telling. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:44 PM, ORH_wxman said:

If we get another bump NW at 00z, I’d watch for real in SE MA. They only need like 50-60 miles now on some of these solutions to get into the NW side of CCB. 

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It would be cool to whiff se this month...already pulled off sw, w, nw and ne

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:45 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

This has happened a couple times already though. If 0z keeps it up, then maybe

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This. This exact scenario has happened like 4 times with this “threat” already.

[SouthCoastMA]

Trust me. I want it to be real. But I need 2-3 consistent cycles of improvements to get invested again. We are within 96 hours so if that happens then I'm more than willing to get fully on board so that tomorrows 12z runs can again rip my beating heart out 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:57 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

kinda amazed how this run the GFS doesnt really torch after Christmas

 

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Except for a run or two I never saw any major torch on the GFS.  A week of AN and a day or two touching 50 but that’s nothing we haven’t seen every winter.

[ineedsnow]

One eps member goes over the cape lol

[dryslot]

  On 12/17/2024 at 11:30 PM, ORH_wxman said:

18z euro trying to scrape the Cape now. 

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Scooter will be swinging from a tree if that comes to fruition.