Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:26 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Hopefully Ray has an update on his blog soon. 

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He's racing home, fighting traffic to feverishly begin it.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/17/2024 at 8:51 PM, dryslot said:

I'm actually thinking about going down to NJ with my 12ga and take down some drones seeing i can't go riding but i would end up in the same situation potentially that you'd be in.

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  On 12/17/2024 at 9:30 PM, CoastalWx said:

He's racing home, fighting traffic to feverishly begin it.

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With drones showing up in SNE now and the Euro AI rising, they may be riding together by late January to get the blog published. 

[CoastalWx]

GFS trying for Cape Cod.

[brooklynwx99]

the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift

[CoastalWx]

That was a big jump west on GFS. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift

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First thing I noticed as compared to 12z.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Scooter lol. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:59 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Scooter lol. 

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With my luck the Cape gets 6" of paste.

[Boston Bulldog]

Hazey bomb

[Boston Bulldog]

Negative trough at 84 hours. That’s a substantial change

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:56 PM, CoastalWx said:

GFS trying for Cape Cod.

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Don’t do it man. It’s like 3 days away. Not happening 

[eduggs]

12z GFS was pretty f'in close for EMA and esp EME. If that NS wave can dive south from ON and phase a little faster it could work out OK for parts of SNE. Not much time though. Can't have any set backs over the next few model cycles.

[MJO812]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:07 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Don’t do it man. It’s like 3 days away. Not happening 

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That's plenty of time

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:03 PM, Boston Bulldog said:

Hazey bomb

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Obliterated up there

[Hazey]

Crushed….on multiple models now. Looking solid here for Leo and I. Got some wiggle room so I hope some of you guys can grab something. Whatever falls will likely be on the ground for Christmas morning.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:07 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Don’t do it man. It’s like 3 days away. Not happening 

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Lol..that’s actually a lot of time for changes.  Blizzard of 1/15 started jumping back at less time than that. It can happen…doesn’t mean it does, but 3 days is plenty of time. 

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:57 PM, CoastalWx said:

That was a big jump west on GFS. 

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Don't do it 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:57 PM, CoastalWx said:

That was a big jump west on GFS. 

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18z many times jumps one way or another…let’s see what 18z Euro shows? 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/17/2024 at 9:57 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS is incorporating the NS energy on the backside of the trough more. nice shift

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Curious, no more Norlun?  Maybe that was the precursor to this run where it jumps back west?  Interesting. 

[ineedsnow]

GEFS west

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:21 PM, ineedsnow said:

GEFS west

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yeah, trough is notably sharper

[ineedsnow]

west of 12z but not there yet

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:24 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah, trough is notably sharper

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it would have to be by 0z tonight for another big shift

[MJO812]

Nice shift west

[Typhoon Tip]

you guys laugh but this is may be a problem 

propulsion: unknown; no heat plumes; invisible to infrared tech

vector:  est 4 to 5g turn maneuvers at low altitude lasting hours; rules out any known electrical energy propulsion system.

source:  unknown apparently from the open ocean, without knowing if they are under or over water.   

detection: optical only; some form of signal management/concealment

  ... either some agency of this world has made some stunning advancements in technology and are figuratively lording it over our heads, or this is the most fantastic hoax ever contrived

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:31 PM, MJO812 said:

Nice shift west

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that looks like a long shore fetch setting up... if that happens there's likely to be some oe working with general low level frontogenics ..i could see a plume of light snow in that hinted ivt over pa

also clusters in southern me eastern ma and ri

[Prismshine Productions]

we take

[Prismshine Productions]

decent increase in qpf

[Typhoon Tip]

oh, wait a minute ... that's the ensemble mean.  shit.

well, in that case, that ivt is actually because there's likely some members with either a strong ivt signal or are just bodily west of the mean. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 12/17/2024 at 10:15 PM, WinterWolf said:

Lol..that’s actually a lot of time for changes.  Blizzard of 1/15 started jumping back at less time than that. It can happen…doesn’t mean it does, but 3 days is plenty of time. 

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the great boxing day blizzard  ( for everyone but tampon tip ) storm