Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[crownweather]

21 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes sir..another over performer.  2.5” this morning.(Girlfriend says 3” when she went to work at 6:45..but I’ll stay with the 2.5” lol).  5.5” on the month/season…not to shabby so far.  

Ended up with about 0.2 inch of snow with the system early this morning here in Sturbridge.  Brings me to 9.3 inches of snow for the month & season.  Pretty decent start to the season & MUCH better than the last several years.  

[brooklynwx99]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"One more move like that and its game on!"

meh i'm bored dude. might as well see what this thing does

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

meh i'm bored dude. might as well see what this thing does

i thought he was serious ...  

i don't disagree with his "sarcasm" either way.   it was close.  the next step would be to see the flow out ahead of the s/w, as it is nearing the coast, begin to back aloft.  ...show up as some bowing back west along the isopleths that extend ne from the trough nadir  ...etc etc

that s/w ridging is happening because of latent heat exhausting off a b-c leaf, which actually getting something to happen here would be hugely helped by that actually taking place -

[MJO812]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

"One more move like that and its game on!"

Euro says no

[ORH_wxman]

Euro looks worse than 06z....it really is a shame because it's a very solid shortwave diving SE toward the lower mid-atlantic, but there's just no ability to lift the heights downstream with the southern stream turd messing up the spacing. Without that, you're prob looking at a fairly healthy Miller B.

[ineedsnow]

looks like we snowless this Christmas 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro says no

I was being sarcastic .

[Spanks45]

44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah how did y'all do down there ... 

i saw a ton of bright banding on rad at dawn just s over the sound but if .. figured a couple on the n side of that ?

Ended up with 3.6", i was up at 1 am, it was just starting, so must have really come down between 130 and 5....might have even had a bit more, as it was already melting when I measured...the hrrr even as the snow was falling only had less than an inch for here. Love those small positive surprises, reminds me of my younger days when we didnt have so many models to look at....

[mitchnick]

That s_w north of Montana wasn't there on runs with the decent results last week. Plus, maybe acting as an unwanted kicker. Idk 

[Typhoon Tip]

well... there's still a handful of other guidance that looked more encouraging -

i guess we auto sans those in lieu of the bipolar rage ?    lol

just kidding.  yeah, i don't think the euro is going to be very wrong inside of 120 hours.   i'll give it one more cycle ( this evening) inside it's 96 hour wheelhouse. it gets rare really fast for it to be wrong enough to make a huge difference, particularly when this has large field problem in this run.   i mean, those have to be fixed   before  looking for nuances to help out

--the western ridge sucks.  

--the field doesn't respond quickly enough after the mid week thing leaves 

[CoastalWx]

Another drop kick Chun-Li style kick to the crotch. 

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

looks like we snowless this Christmas 

You should be getting use to that now on Christmas, Look at the bright side, You won't get a visit from the grinch this year.

[dryslot]

We don't get a lot of good looking patterns often and when we do we need them to produce, And that just has not happened in recent years, Lot of bad luck.

[Snowcrazed71]

As they say, it is what it is. I'm not too disappointed as we had a couple of small events this December ( which we didn't have last December that I can remember ). Plus, we have a lot of family here for this holiday which is great. So I'll look forward to January to see what happens. Definitely not letting this bipolar weather pattern affect me LOL. Eventually we'll get something big! 

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another drop kick Chun-Li style kick to the crotch. 

A White Christmas tease no less. Hyyyy-u-kennnn- to the nuts.

[ineedsnow]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You should be getting use to that now on Christmas, Look at the bright side, You won't get a visit from the grinch this year.

I would have to look back but pretty sure this would be the first Christmas since moving here that there wasn't atleast a inch on Christmas.. 

[Kitz Craver]

At least we have some absolutely frigid temps rolling in right on the failed storm’s heels. Gotta love it.

[MJO812]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Another drop kick Chun-Li style kick to the crotch. 

Eps flatter

It's over

[Cyclone-68]

Oh well. Another snowless Christmas. Nothing new for us here 

[Snowcrazed71]

Well..... There's always that Hail Mary courier knives Snow that that Tip said was showing him one of the models for Christmas morning LOL

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps flatter

It's over

Time to work the shifts. 

[MJO812]

We need Miller As back again

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Time to work the shifts. 

I will tell my co workers and prisoners it's over.

[Typhoon Tip]

the ggem is snowing xmas morning

[mahk_webstah]

Kinda done with models beyond 6 days.  Just live in the moment.  Easy with 2 babies anyhow.

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Kinda done with models beyond 6 days.  Just live in the moment.  Easy with 2 babies anyhow.

Models shouldn't go past 200 hours.

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need Miller As back again

100%. Sorry Ray.  

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need Miller As back again

What's a Miller A? 

Lol

[tunafish]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Time to work the shafts. 

I don't think even that can save us.

[dryslot]

15 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We need Miller As back again

Sure, So those can hit England instead.