Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[ROOSTA]

It's always the next run or the other model. The "fix" is never satisfied.
It all a tease. Could get a 3-footer and still looking for the next....

If you want to OD move to AK or the Canadian Rockies. 

[Hazey]

GFS has not been good with this system. It's been all over the map. Not my go to for this storm. It's becoming an outlier. Keep the faith.

[CoastalWx]

Canadian was 3-4 spot 5 or so region wide. Couple on the Cape. Sort of from an inv look for the second half that gets further east. I wish the GFS showed that vs Canadian.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ROOSTA said:

It's always the next run or the other model. The "fix" is never satisfied.
It all a tease. Could get a 3-footer and still looking for the next....

If you want to OD move to AK or the Canadian Rockies. 

How about we start with normal snowfall for the first time in 7 years? Is that fair?

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

How about we start with normal snowfall for the first time in 7 years? Is that fair?

AGREE!
I got to move...LOL

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian was 3-4 spot 5 or so region wide. Couple on the Cape. Sort of from an inv look for the second half that gets further east. I wish the GFS showed that vs Canadian.

Exactly.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, ROOSTA said:

AGREE!
I got to move...LOL

TBH, you picked the perfect time to relocate to FL...haven't missed much-

[MJO812]

Gefs flatter than 6z

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gefs flatter than 6z

No way......you sure?

[MJO812]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No way......you sure?

Not shocking

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Not shocking

Not for most, no...

[ROOSTA]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

TBH, you picked the perfect time to relocate to FL...haven't missed much-

The year I moved down here I missed the greatest stretch of SNE snowfall ever. I was so emotionally drained didn't even track any of it.
----
I would not give up on this yet. Only hope for a white xmas.   

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ROOSTA said:

The year I moved down here I missed the greatest stretch of SNE snowfall ever. I was so emotionally drained didn't even track any of it.
----
I would not give up on this yet. Only hope for a white xmas.   

Oh, I thought you moved after 2014...wow. Hadn't realized you have been gone 10 years!! 

[mahk_webstah]

23 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At some point when various models are showing various solutions and you need various things to go right to bring just an advisory snowfall, it's time to move on.

It’s not happening James

[Damage In Tolland]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Canadian was 3-4 spot 5 or so region wide. Couple on the Cape. Sort of from an inv look for the second half that gets further east. I wish the GFS showed that vs Canadian.

Hello friend 

[Typhoon Tip]

ggem is snowing light currier&ives style xmas morning

[brooklynwx99]

UKMET is backed far west with the trough. seems like the only model that's gotten crappier so far is the GFS

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ggem is snowing light currier&ives style xmas morning

Who else believes in Christmas miracles..lol

 

[Spanks45]

10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

ggem is snowing light currier&ives style xmas morning

Sort of reminds me of what last night/this morning's little system looked like.....Cold air held in nicely for a change, gave us mostly snow around here. A few days ago, it looked like mostly 35 degree rain. 

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, Spanks45 said:

Sort of reminds me of what last night/this morning's little system looked like.....Cold air held in nicely for a change, gave us mostly snow around here. A few days ago, it looked like mostly 35 degree rain. 

yeah how did y'all do down there ... 

i saw a ton of bright banding on rad at dawn just s over the sound but if .. figured a couple on the n side of that ?

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Sort of reminds me of what last night/this morning's little system looked like.....Cold air held in nicely for a change, gave us mostly snow around here. A few days ago, it looked like mostly 35 degree rain. 

Yes sir..another over performer.  2.5” this morning.(Girlfriend says 3” when she went to work at 6:45..but I’ll stay with the 2.5” lol).  5.5” on the month/season…not to shabby so far.  

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET is backed far west with the trough. seems like the only model that's gotten crappier so far is the GFS

this whole situation has a pube's width of tolerance, while the gfs has a pube of progressive bias over all other guidance - i've railed on about this hidden aspect to the gfs for years, and still detect that as being the case every non and again but different discussion.  

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

this whole situation has a pube of tolerance, while the gfs has a pube of progressive bias over all other guidance - i've railed on about this hidden aspect to the gfs for years, and still detect that as being the case every non and again but different discussion.  

like lol this is a significant shift

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

like lol this is a significant shift

right, and my point was ... if there is going to be a shift aft of the previous, the gfs is prooobably going to be the last model to join in, in situations like these where it seems that speed in the flow is conserved

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

right, and my point was ... if there is going to be a shift aft of the previous, the gfs is prooobably going to be the last model to join in, in situations like these where it seems that speed in the flow is conserved

Let's hope. Although not often that we get something which is splitting hairs already. Or not it's even going to hit, it does happen from time to time. If there's ever a time for this to happen, it is now ( that is us getting a hit ). 

[ORH_wxman]

Every piece of guidance sans GFS is significantly better than 00z. Still needs more work though on most of these solutions. We haven’t been able to get a consistently positive trend for multiple cycles in a row though which is what this system needs. 

The euro also needs to come in better I think for me to really entertain this being still in play on the 00z guidance. When I say “in play”, I mean for something that’s at least 4”+….a C-2” deal isn’t what I’m discussing. 

[Damage In Tolland]

53 minutes ago, Hazey said:

GFS has not been good with this system. It's been all over the map. Not my go to for this storm. It's becoming an outlier. Keep the faith.

It’s had a bad last few months 

[Damage In Tolland]

She’s coming in hard hot n heavy 

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

UKMET is backed far west with the trough. seems like the only model that's gotten crappier so far is the GFS

"One more move like that and its game on!"

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs was atrocious on the clipper a few weeks ago until the day before. It was also horrific on the big rainstorm a few weeks ago and the screamer . It is tossed