Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not happening…the step forward overnight was a fake out.

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I implore you not to overlook this.

[dryslot]

See ya.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:01 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not 

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Good luck kehd.

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:30 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably Feb 1978 and Feb 2013....even Jan 2005 for the cape.

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Agree with this. It has to be on the Mt. Rushmore of epic events to be on the list. 

For CT I think it’s March 1888, Feb 1978, October 2011, and Feb 2013. Folks may argue with 2011, but there’s no dispute about the other 3. 

[dryslot]

I'll probably get more snow with the squalls with the arctic front on saturday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:00 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not happening…the step forward overnight was a fake out.

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Of course it was.....way it always goes. They never just flatline and let you go about your life.....there are always a couple of leg kicks that cause everyone to waste another day or two before commiting to reality.

[SouthCoastMA]

The vort coming down from Canada just vanishes and all energy goes to the weak low towards Bermuda. Fun solution

[dryslot]

WSW on the Flemish Cap.

[Damage In Tolland]

That run can be tossed. Hard to believe some long time posters think it’s right . Doesn’t make meteorological sense 

[CoastalWx]

That God for these cold anomalies. Really helping here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:03 PM, SouthCoastMA said:

The vort coming down from Canada just vanishes and all energy goes to the weak low towards Bermuda. Fun solution

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This is easily the worst run yet, it’s not even close, we aren’t a minor shift away. If people are smart, they’d stop wasting time on this 

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:06 PM, CoastalWx said:

That God for these cold anomalies. Really helping here.

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Let's get those SST's down so we can have a nice chilly spring at least!

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:06 PM, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is easily the worst run yet, it’s not even close, we aren’t a minor shift away. If people are smart, they’d stop wasting time on this 

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....

[ineedsnow]

I think this run can be tossed.. no way the backside of that vort digs in like that

[Damage In Tolland]

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:10 PM, ineedsnow said:

I think this run can be tossed.. no way the backside of that vort digs in like that

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It's certainly a plausible outcome.

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:12 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's certainly a plausible outcome.

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I'll take the bet on the GEFS looking different

[SouthCoastMA]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:08 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

....

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I think it's reasonable to track if one understands the odds of a decent hit are like <20%. But yeah, I get that I could also not be wasting my time and be doing something more productive. 

[MJO812]

Cmc coming in more amped with the coastal.

[brooklynwx99]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:12 PM, CoastalWx said:

It's certainly a plausible outcome.

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meanwhile, the trailing vort actually helps things out on the CMC. it's better than 00z

[dryslot]

You would want to see the GFS show what the 12z GGEM is showing if you have hope on a system on Saturday, That's the type of improvement one would be looking for but its the Canadien showing it unfortunately.

[weathafella]

Euro will determine dead or alive as the tie breaker.

[CoastalWx]

At some point when various models are showing various solutions and you need various things to go right to bring just an advisory snowfall, it's time to move on.

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:20 PM, dryslot said:

You would want to see the GFS show what the 12z GGEM is showing if you have hope on a system on Saturday, That's the type of improvement one would be looking for but its the Canadien showing it unfortunately.

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Gfs is notorious for being flat with coastal storms. 

[MJO812]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:23 PM, CoastalWx said:

At some point when various models are showing various solutions and you need various things to go right to bring just an advisory snowfall, it's time to move on.

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Uh ? It's not far off from something nice and still some time

 

[dryslot]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:23 PM, MJO812 said:

Gfs is notorious for being flat with coastal storms. 

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Well, Yes, But we will need the Euro to latch on not just going with the CMC.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS was a terrible solution. GGEM is definitely a large improvement...prob advisory snowfall for interior on that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:24 PM, MJO812 said:

Uh ? It's not far off from something nice and still some time

 

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[SouthCoastMA]

The CMC (the good solution) is mostly rain here until the end. 

Like I said before, I'll just take some onshore flow and snow showers at this point. 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 12/16/2024 at 4:23 PM, CoastalWx said:

At some point when various models are showing various solutions and you need various things to go right to bring just an advisory snowfall, it's time to move on.

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That’s been life in SNE the last half decade plus now.