Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not happening…the step forward overnight was a fake out.

I implore you not to overlook this.

[dryslot]

See ya.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s not 

Good luck kehd.

[WxWatcher007]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Probably Feb 1978 and Feb 2013....even Jan 2005 for the cape.

Agree with this. It has to be on the Mt. Rushmore of epic events to be on the list. 

For CT I think it’s March 1888, Feb 1978, October 2011, and Feb 2013. Folks may argue with 2011, but there’s no dispute about the other 3. 

[dryslot]

I'll probably get more snow with the squalls with the arctic front on saturday.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Not happening…the step forward overnight was a fake out.

Of course it was.....way it always goes. They never just flatline and let you go about your life.....there are always a couple of leg kicks that cause everyone to waste another day or two before commiting to reality.

[SouthCoastMA]

The vort coming down from Canada just vanishes and all energy goes to the weak low towards Bermuda. Fun solution

[dryslot]

WSW on the Flemish Cap.

[Damage In Tolland]

That run can be tossed. Hard to believe some long time posters think it’s right . Doesn’t make meteorological sense 

[CoastalWx]

That God for these cold anomalies. Really helping here.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, SouthCoastMA said:

The vort coming down from Canada just vanishes and all energy goes to the weak low towards Bermuda. Fun solution

This is easily the worst run yet, it’s not even close, we aren’t a minor shift away. If people are smart, they’d stop wasting time on this 

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

That God for these cold anomalies. Really helping here.

Let's get those SST's down so we can have a nice chilly spring at least!

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

This is easily the worst run yet, it’s not even close, we aren’t a minor shift away. If people are smart, they’d stop wasting time on this 

....

[ineedsnow]

I think this run can be tossed.. no way the backside of that vort digs in like that

[Damage In Tolland]

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

I think this run can be tossed.. no way the backside of that vort digs in like that

It's certainly a plausible outcome.

[ineedsnow]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's certainly a plausible outcome.

I'll take the bet on the GEFS looking different

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

....

I think it's reasonable to track if one understands the odds of a decent hit are like <20%. But yeah, I get that I could also not be wasting my time and be doing something more productive. 

[MJO812]

Cmc coming in more amped with the coastal.

[brooklynwx99]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's certainly a plausible outcome.

meanwhile, the trailing vort actually helps things out on the CMC. it's better than 00z

[dryslot]

You would want to see the GFS show what the 12z GGEM is showing if you have hope on a system on Saturday, That's the type of improvement one would be looking for but its the Canadien showing it unfortunately.

[weathafella]

Euro will determine dead or alive as the tie breaker.

[CoastalWx]

At some point when various models are showing various solutions and you need various things to go right to bring just an advisory snowfall, it's time to move on.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

You would want to see the GFS show what the 12z GGEM is showing if you have hope on a system on Saturday, That's the type of improvement one would be looking for but its the Canadien showing it unfortunately.

Gfs is notorious for being flat with coastal storms. 

[MJO812]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

At some point when various models are showing various solutions and you need various things to go right to bring just an advisory snowfall, it's time to move on.

Uh ? It's not far off from something nice and still some time

 

[dryslot]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Gfs is notorious for being flat with coastal storms. 

Well, Yes, But we will need the Euro to latch on not just going with the CMC.

[ORH_wxman]

GFS was a terrible solution. GGEM is definitely a large improvement...prob advisory snowfall for interior on that.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Uh ? It's not far off from something nice and still some time

 

[SouthCoastMA]

The CMC (the good solution) is mostly rain here until the end. 

Like I said before, I'll just take some onshore flow and snow showers at this point. 

[WxWatcher007]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

At some point when various models are showing various solutions and you need various things to go right to bring just an advisory snowfall, it's time to move on.

That’s been life in SNE the last half decade plus now.