Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Damage In Tolland]

Imploring folks to not quit on the end of week . It is going to snow. 

[Typhoon Tip]

heh... here's one model no one probably ever even looked at .. the navgem.   the 00z solution gave a 30 hour nor-easter with about 3" of liq equivalent in mostly snow

[Snowcrazed71]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... here's one model no one probably ever even looked at .. was the navgem.   the 00z solution gave a 30 hour nor-easter with about 3" of liq equivalent in mostly snow

The NAVGEM is my hero!!!!! Lol

But, does it offer and clue or realism to what the storm will do ( I know no one ever shows us or uses this ).. I recall, sometimes it can sniff something out. Just wondering

[mreaves]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... here's one model no one probably ever even looked at .. was the navgem.   the 00z solution gave a 30 hour nor-easter with about 3" of liq equivalent in mostly snow

Isn't that one of @George001's go to's?

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

The NAVGEM is my hero!!!!! Lol

But, does it offer and clue or realism to what the storm will do ( I know no one ever shows us or uses this ).. I recall, sometimes it can sniff something out. Just wondering

yup, typically with this model ... it's what 'not to do'  - example, the 06z solution did not do what the 00z run did.  

[dryslot]

The Navy!!

[ORH_wxman]

It's the NAM, but interesting trend on the 12z run....everything further west with the main shortwave and that includes the TPV up north. If other guidance follows suit, that would help bring this thing much closer/further west.

[Typhoon Tip]

ineedsnow  ... you really should not be thanking anyone for that guffaw model

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's the NAM, but interesting trend on the 12z run....everything further west with the main shortwave and that includes the TPV up north. If other guidance follows suit, that would help bring this thing much closer/further west.

right ...then we have to fight the fact that the nam always has a nw bias in the western atl basin beyond 42 ..48 hours.   lol

haha  can't win

[ineedsnow]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

ineedsnow  ... you really should not be thanking anyone for that guffaw model

Trust me I know and never look at it anymore. BUT I did check 6z after your post and poof gone lol

[SouthCoastMA]

The  6z   would be a decent hit

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It's the NAM, but interesting trend on the 12z run....everything further west with the main shortwave and that includes the TPV up north. If other guidance follows suit, that would help bring this thing much closer/further west.

Really amped for Wednesday night

[SouthCoastMA]

I saw a George001 sighting..maybe we can start firing up the B word soon

[CoastalWx]

16 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

heh... here's one model no one probably ever even looked at .. the navgem.   the 00z solution gave a 30 hour nor-easter with about 3" of liq equivalent in mostly snow

6z went flaccid.

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Trust me I know and never look at it anymore. BUT I did check 6z after your post and poof gone lol

yeah ... tongue in cheek.  i'm not sure what the navgem model ( seriously ... ) was really invented for.  i think it's a 'frankenmodel' - kinda like the old dgex days. 

i used to love the dgex model.  talk about a methadone clinic!  storm going away in the guidance?  no problem -   just open the dgex and it seemed to always dependably take whatever it had on the nam at 72 hours, and manufacture like 10 closed isobars out of it.  

not saying the navgem does that.  but one thing i know it seldom ever does is accuracy.   i get the feeling though that the model isn't there to make us "happey" (heh)   no, but it might have some specific application that's not intended for general operational forecasting - not sure.  it's speciated out of the navy's "nogaps" model being somehow fused into the ggem if memory serves -

if that was some sort of random experiment ( otherwise ...), it's time for it to go away, either way.

[weathafella]

For the record George is not the same as he was a few years ago.  He’s educated himself and has become a knowledgeable poster.

[SouthCoastMA]

Just now, weathafella said:

For the record George is not the same as he was a few years ago.  He’s educated himself and has become a knowledgeable poster.

Was just ribbing him, I don't doubt it. 

[George001]

15 minutes ago, mreaves said:

Isn't that one of @George001's go to's?

Yep. The thing about the Navy is it has a known SE/progressive bias. So when it’s the most amped that’s a huge red flag. I still want to see more improvements from other guidance before I jump the gun, but it is way too early to write this off. I like the large scale players, the western ridge axis is centered over Montana which is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis. There is a high to the north in the 1030s, that’s a strong high. We are still 5 days out, that’s a long time in weather. Don’t expect a truly high end outcome, but it wouldn’t take massive changes in guidance to get moderate snows for my area. 

[SouthCoastMA]

Like has been mentioned, if that FL/GA shortwave can slow down a bit or trend further west at 12z, the Saturday storm won't traverse halfway to Bermuda like the EPS has it doing. 

[George001]

Although I am more optimistic about this threat than most, I do agree that the MECS/HECS solutions are off the table. I wouldn’t expect more than 6-12 inches for the jackpot areas even if everything breaks right. Why? Although the western ridge axis is in an ideal spot, it’s significantly less amplified than it was in setups like late Jan 2022, late Jan 2015, late Dec 2010, etc. But you can’t write off a moderate event, just can’t do it. Even if things don’t look great 2 days out, remember the first storm in Jan 2022? Guidance was fairly weak with that even the night before the storm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

13 minutes ago, George001 said:

Yep. The thing about the Navy is it has a known SE/progressive bias. So when it’s the most amped that’s a huge red flag. I still want to see more improvements from other guidance before I jump the gun, but it is way too early to write this off. I like the large scale players, the western ridge axis is centered over Montana which is ideal for east coast cyclogenesis. There is a high to the north in the 1030s, that’s a strong high. We are still 5 days out, that’s a long time in weather. Don’t expect a truly high end outcome, but it wouldn’t take massive changes in guidance to get moderate snows for my area. 

never include the navgem -

period

as far as the nogaps... meh.  we used to call it the 'gonaps' model back in my university days for a reason.  but maybe there's been some kind of extra-double top secret pentagon upgrades that only the navy's commander and chief and one or two turbo nerd modelers know about -

[dryslot]

Just now, George001 said:

Although I am more optimistic about this threat than most, I do agree that the MECS/HECS solutions are off the table. I wouldn’t expect more than 6-12 inches for the jackpot areas even if everything breaks right. Why? Although the western ridge axis is in an ideal spot, it’s significantly less amplified than it was in setups like late Jan 2022, late Jan 2015, late Dec 2010, etc. 

You run a different scale for MECS/HECS then anyone else here then if you think 6-12" doesn't fit an MECS.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, George001 said:

Although I am more optimistic about this threat than most, I do agree that the MECS/HECS solutions are off the table. I wouldn’t expect more than 6-12 inches for the jackpot areas even if everything breaks right. Why? Although the western ridge axis is in an ideal spot, it’s significantly less amplified than it was in setups like late Jan 2022, late Jan 2015, late Dec 2010, etc. But you can’t write off a moderate event, just can’t do it. Even if things don’t look great 2 days out, remember the first storm in Jan 2022? Guidance was fairly weak with that even the night before the storm. 

Two days out it looked pretty good for Easton areas. It was the amount of QPF  that concerned some, but the mid-level features looked great there.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

You run a different scale for MECS/HECS then anyone else here then if you think 6-12" doesn't fit an MECS.

George likes his scales beefy.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

George likes his scales beefy.

Surprised he didn't get in a BECS, I know it as Biblical but i think George uses it as Blizzard.............

[Typhoon Tip]

21 minutes ago, weathafella said:

For the record George is not the same as he was a few years ago.  He’s educated himself and has become a knowledgeable poster.

ah Jerry ...

the soothing voice of a kind, forgiving encouraging father, as well as the committed educator -

unfortunately, it's going to take a longer time to get over the punishing abuse of countless thread titles with animated arrows pointing to the word

"--> blizzard <--"  before a graduation from the university of bundum can be conferred

[CoastalWx]

Fwiw I think 12z icon will be better. Tough to tell exactly being mobile. 

[Kitz Craver]

6 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Surprised he didn't get in a BECS, I know it as Biblical but i think George uses it as Blizzard.............

Has any winter storm been officially classified a BECS since we began keeping records?

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Has any winter storm been officially classified a BECS since we began keeping records?

Probably Feb 1978 and Feb 2013....even Jan 2005 for the cape.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Has any winter storm been officially classified a BECS since we began keeping records?

Depends on who you ask...lol