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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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dendrite
dendrite

To be really fair he hasn’t looked at a piece of guidance. 

Snowcrazed71
Snowcrazed71

Ya know... Being married to a guy... You know FAR too much about gay things than a straight man should know! Just saying... LOL   

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40/70 Benchmark

If I wake up at 4am and the last post is from @ineedsnowor @MJO812, then I'll know an angel got its buns.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

“Models make a tick improvement for d4…I’m putting in my PTO request now before this gets way out of hand.”

Wait until the insurance CEO murder trial happens. He’ll be fighting all the purple hairs 24/7. 

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WinterWolf

WinterWolf

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

6z eps are halfway to Bermuda. People are legitimately grasping at straws at right now 

It’s a weather forum Brett, and things did improve from where they were yesterday. So try and tolerate the discussion about the “weather.”   

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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7 hours ago, weathafella said:

Euro almost always overdoes long range cold.  The only exception in my memory is the extreme cold that gave BOS its coldest reading in 65 years in February 2023.  Euro nailed that from a week or more out.

but in deference to all ... all models did exceptionally well with that - at least as far as my memory aligns.

that may not have been anything particular to euro skill, but more having to do with just the uniqueness of that hemisphere at the time.  unique situations tend to have overwhelming physics that tend to dominate the field while they are passing through out in time ... that's why "Sandy" and "Superstorm, 1993" and on and on, were detectable quite far out in the guidance and became eerily confident from a long way off

...unlike this giant piece of f'ing shit 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS increased the mean QPF a decent amount so there must be some decent members in there. 
 

We really need another positive step at 12z today if we’re trying for something other than light accumulations. 

yeah .. full disclosure, i know this thread was mainly "experimental" - and it was ...  but, about mid way since i was admittedly more thinking something other than complete bullshit for this effort, too -

thing is, we all know the index numerology/projections therein are made more useful by then looking at the spatial aspects of the super synopsis. hugely important to this latter facet, understanding/detecting subtle trends.    one of which has been this Auschwitzian dental exam of a western ridge - never seen a +2   delta pna move be so non-committal to a western n/a ridge like this before.  i'm wondering if speed in the flow this... or more phase 5 mjo that...

i don't want to instill hope, or add to the seemingly problematic d-drip mania problem with this social media engagement ... ( lol ) but, this keeps reminding me of the Boxing Day storm back in 2010's, great cosmic dildo winter for specifically Ayer, Ma ... (eh hem)   that storm was essentially dead and vanquished from the charts over a great initial look at like d8, too.  with just 42 or something hours to go ... it came all the way back to deliberately give me, personally, 2.4" of arctic dust while ingrate trolls that didn't deserve it were rewarded with blizzard b.js   

yeah... heh.  anyway, modeling standards really have steeply improved a lot in the last 12 years - not sure that is happening quite the same here.  we are not seeing a complete loss from the charts.  the vestiges of "should" happen/suggestions are still there.  so if it comes back stronger in the short game, it won't be so drastic  

but this has been a really, really lousy drug supply.  i say we switch dealers! 

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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Just now, 8611Blizz said:

Congrats San Miguel?

We sort of get porked by that short wave moving off the Florida coast. That’s sort of robs us a little bit of baroclinicty and moisture. Then the short wave that we’re all focusing on, it’s sort of zipping along it doesn’t have enough chance to really buckle the flow and get a good conveyor belt going. As it does so it’s flying northeast. 
 

I’m not that optimistic with this one for those reasons. Maybe someone gets clipped by moisture in SE areas, or somebody gets an inv trough with 1-3. 

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ariof

ariof

Posted
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15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

but in deference to all ... all models exceptionally well - at least as far as my memory aligns.

that may not have been anything particular to euro skill, but more having to do with just the uniqueness of that hemisphere at the time.  unique situations tend to have overwhelming physics that tend to dominate the field while they are passing through out in time ... that's why "Sandy" and "Superstorm, 1993" and on and on, were detectable quite far out in the guidance and became eerily confident from a long way off

...unlikely this giant piece of f'n shit 

The GFS sniffed that out … almost exactly … a week out. It didn't quite get the 59-degrees-over-31-hours temperature rise correct (underestimated, but the trend was there). The GFS actually backed off the extreme cold as the week went on (still <0 at KBOS, but not -10) but the week-out op model verified.

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ariof

ariof

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah .. full disclosure, i know this thread was mainly "experimental" - and it was ...  but, about mid way since i was admittedly more thinking something other than complete bullshit for this effort, too -

thing is, we all know the index numerology/projects therein are made more useful by then looking at the spatial aspects of the super synopsis, which this latter facet is hugely important when it comes to understanding/detecting subtle trends.    one of which has been this western ridge, Auschwitzian dental exam - never seen a +2   delta pna move be so non-committal to a western n/a ridge like this before. 

i don't want to instill hope, or add to the seemingly problematic d-drip mania problem with this social media engagement ... ( lol ) but, the Boxing Day storm back in 2010's great cosmic dildo winter for Ayer, Ma ...     that storm was all be dead and vanquished from the charts, with just 42 or something hours to go ... it came all the way back to deliberately give me, personally, 2.4" of arctic dust while trolls that didn't deserve it was rewarded with blizzard b.j.s   

yeah... heh.  anyway, modeling standards really have steeply improved a lot in the last 12 years - not sure that is happening quite the same here.  we are not seeing a complete loss from the charts.  the vestiges of "should" happen/suggestions are still there.   but this has been a really, really lousy drug supply.  i say we switch dealers! 

Will there ever be a model swing as strong as last year's Valentine's Day debacle?

This forum at least knew enough not to cancel school the day before once the models had swung wildly away from it.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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13 minutes ago, ariof said:

The GFS sniffed that out … almost exactly … a week out. It didn't quite get the 59-degrees-over-31-hours temperature rise correct (underestimated, but the trend was there). The GFS actually backed off the extreme cold as the week went on (still <0 at KBOS, but not -10) but the week-out op model verified.

the gfs just does this, i swear.   it puts out one run from like 12 days in advance that's balls on perfect, then spends the next 60 model run cycles raging in ocd to engineer every plausible f'n alternate universe that can exist in a reality constructed by the quantum uncertainty principle instead of the original. 

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Sey-Mour Snow

Sey-Mour Snow

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

yeah .. full disclosure, i know this thread was mainly "experimental" - and it was ...  but, about mid way since i was admittedly more thinking something other than complete bullshit for this effort, too -

thing is, we all know the index numerology/projections therein are made more useful by then looking at the spatial aspects of the super synopsis. hugely important to this latter facet, understanding/detecting subtle trends.    one of which has been this Auschwitzian dental exam of a western ridge - never seen a +2   delta pna move be so non-committal to a western n/a ridge like this before.  i'm wondering if speed in the flow this... or more phase 5 mjo that...

i don't want to instill hope, or add to the seemingly problematic d-drip mania problem with this social media engagement ... ( lol ) but, this keeps reminding me of the Boxing Day storm back in 2010's, great cosmic dildo winter for specifically Ayer, Ma ... (eh hem)   that storm was essentially dead and vanquished from the charts over a great initial look at like d8, too.  with just 42 or something hours to go ... it came all the way back to deliberately give me, personally, 2.4" of arctic dust while ingrate trolls that didn't deserve it were rewarded with blizzard b.js   

yeah... heh.  anyway, modeling standards really have steeply improved a lot in the last 12 years - not sure that is happening quite the same here.  we are not seeing a complete loss from the charts.  the vestiges of "should" happen/suggestions are still there.  so if it comes back stronger in the short game, it won't be so drastic  

but this has been a really, really lousy drug supply.  i say we switch dealers! 

Not saying any similarities to that storm, but I've been thinking about boxing day, the miracle comeback for a blizzard after Christmas.  This could be a miracle comeback to make a White Christmas for all which would be more memorable.  

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