Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is definitely deeper. improved from 18z

Much better / need one more big bump and it’s game on for some accumulating snow

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better moves tonight including the 6z GFS. A bit less mucking up with the srn s/w. Just not sure it will be enough or if it continues.

That combined with eps has me a bit more intrigued. Would be nice with the deep winter cold Friday through Christmas Day. 

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better moves tonight including the 6z GFS. A bit less mucking up with the srn s/w. Just not sure it will be enough or if it continues.

Well we certainly have the time for it to continue…but as you said, will it?   Heh, at least we’ve seen some legit improvements over night. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better moves tonight including the 6z GFS. A bit less mucking up with the srn s/w. Just not sure it will be enough or if it continues.

 

2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

That combined with eps has me a bit more intrigued. Would be nice with the deep winter cold Friday through Christmas Day. 

Yeah that’s what I thought looking this morning. Positive to be sure but I think we want a more substantive jump now that we're inside ~5 days. Still time I suppose.

[Damage In Tolland]

30 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Better moves tonight including the 6z GFS. A bit less mucking up with the srn s/w. Just not sure it will be enough or if it continues.

Don’t know why you wouldn’t listen and so distraught yesterday. This has always looked like a light - moderate event. Just hope it last thru Xnas

[Damage In Tolland]

Icon has lead the way on this one. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Don’t know why you wouldn’t listen and so distraught yesterday. This has always looked like a light - moderate event. Just hope it last thru Xnas

Yeah, I’m not sold on that yet.

[ORH_wxman]

EPS increased the mean QPF a decent amount so there must be some decent members in there. 
 

We really need another positive step at 12z today if we’re trying for something other than light accumulations. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This is another winter with no big monster snowstorms. You don’t get those with screaming Pac jets. Just be happy with a 3-6.. maybe 4-8 type deal Friday night 

[MJO812]

Gefs also bumped west

[brooklynwx99]

EPS continues to deepen

[Hazey]

This threat ain’t done. Still plenty of time. I like where it’s at right now tbh. Icon has been pretty consistent with this s/w. Some others have been bouncing around. Keep the faith.

[Go Kart Mozart]

9 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

ECMFW sucks with the MJO.

Have you seen stats on that?  Empirically, it seems to me the the GFS suite is usually too aggressive with high wave amplitude.

[Snowcrazed71]

46 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is another winter with no big monster snowstorms. You don’t get those with screaming Pac jets. Just be happy with a 3-6.. maybe 4-8 type deal Friday night 

Man... I hope we would get that much... But there you go with your favorite number " 4-8 )... Lol 

By I am hoping your manifesting  it will make it happen! If we do get that..we will definitely have a White Christmas... Temps will make sure of that!

 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Have you seen stats on that?  Empirically, it seems to me the the GFS suite is usually too aggressive with high wave amplitude.

Euro typically has done better with MJO stuff. Maybe this year it sucks I don’t know.

[CoastalWx]

IneedSnow and chief Wiggum didn’t post about the 6Z euro so it must not have been good.

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

Have you seen stats on that?  Empirically, it seems to me the the GFS suite is usually too aggressive with high wave amplitude.

I know the EURO has been off in the other direction of late....this is why it has been often too cold in the longer range, as it has underestimated the amplitude in the MC phases. I don't have stats and don't care to look, but you do you.

[Kitz Craver]

It’s a slight improvement, like from 0 flakes to 3 flakes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is another winter with no big monster snowstorms. You don’t get those with screaming Pac jets. Just be happy with a 3-6.. maybe 4-8 type deal Friday night 

I had almost 20"January 7 last year....2 years prior many spots had 24-30"...but I know what you mean generally speaking.

[40/70 Benchmark]

28 minutes ago, Hazey said:

This threat ain’t done. Still plenty of time. I like where it’s at right now tbh. Icon has been pretty consistent with this s/w. Some others have been bouncing around. Keep the faith.

No, certaintly not done for Atlantic Canada...agree.

[ineedsnow]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

IneedSnow and chief Wiggum didn’t post about the 6Z euro so it must not have been good.

Just catching up this morning it's been a busy one ..

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I had almost 20"January 7 last year....2 years prior many spots had 24-30"...but I know what you mean generally speaking.

Small regions certainly can get those amounts. But I mean on a regional or widespread basis. The flow doesn’t buckle enough 

[Snowcrazed71]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

No, certaintly not done for Atlantic Canada...agree.

Well... DIT said 3-6/4-8. So... That's that!!

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Small regions certainly can get those amounts. But I mean on a regional or widespread basis. The flow doesn’t buckle enough 

Yea, I agree in general...not a season where I would expect a PD III.

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

Just now, ineedsnow said:

Hey it’s in our time zone!

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This is another winter with no big monster snowstorms. You don’t get those with screaming Pac jets. Just be happy with a 3-6.. maybe 4-8 type deal Friday night 

It's December 16

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Hey it’s in our time zone!

Enjoy the snow Friday night there 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

IneedSnow and chief Wiggum didn’t post about the 6Z euro so it must not have been good.

Chief wiggum has his hands full unzipping over inverted snow showers. 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enjoy the snow Friday night there 

I don’t expect anything more than a few flurries at this time.