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Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions


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  On 12/16/2024 at 2:30 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

Here is the GFS for comparison 587a534ee99531eb92483f23d58e4de4.gif

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Even if it did go into the MC...may not matter much with the GLAAM forecast to remain high in conjunction with better climo. We have been in the MC most of December. 

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  On 12/16/2024 at 3:16 AM, CoastalWx said:

It’s much more acceptable if December was a torch. Here we are with some decent cold and still screwed. That’s what gets me. 
 

Hope for a good 00z suite. 

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The only luck the last few years have been bad luck, Just can't seem to get one to work out in every ones favor.

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  On 12/16/2024 at 3:16 AM, CoastalWx said:

It’s much more acceptable if December was a torch. Here we are with some decent cold and still screwed. That’s what gets me. 
 

Hope for a good 00z suite. 

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I totally disagree. I’d take cold and dry in a heartbeat over another torch for Christmas. 

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:21 AM, dryslot said:

The only luck the last few years have been bad luck, Just can't seem to get one to work out in every ones favor.

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Yeah…as cautiously optimistic as I am overall, if we can’t produce anything meaningful down here during a decent December, I’d find it hard to believe that next month is anything but more of the same, pretty 500 and MJO depictions be damned. 

You have to produce when the windows are open. Not even getting contact when you have an 88mph fastball in the strike zone tells me everything I need to know. 

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  On 12/16/2024 at 3:28 AM, WxWatcher007 said:
Yeah…as cautiously optimistic as I am overall, if we can’t produce anything meaningful down here during a decent December, I’d find it hard to believe that next month is anything but more of the same, pretty 500 and MJO depictions be damned. 
You have to produce when the windows are open. Not even getting contact when you have an 88mph fastball in the strike zone tells me everything I need to know. 
Nah, we getting contact, but mere pedestrian infield groundouts with an occasional bunt single

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  On 12/16/2024 at 3:28 AM, WxWatcher007 said:

I totally disagree. I’d take cold and dry in a heartbeat over another torch for Christmas. 

Yeah…as cautiously optimistic as I am overall, if we can’t produce anything meaningful down here during a decent December, I’d find it hard to believe that next month is anything but more of the same, pretty 500 and MJO depictions be damned. 

You have to produce when the windows are open. Not even getting contact when you have an 88mph fastball in the strike zone tells me everything I need to know. 

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My point is that unlike recent Decembers that torched, we are -2 and still porked.

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  On 12/16/2024 at 3:31 AM, CoastalWx said:
My point is that unlike recent Decembers that torched, we are -2 and still porked.
I rather it be -2 around Christmas than feeling like a year long summer, you can only have so many 70 and 80 degree Christmases before feeling like you living in bloody Australia

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  On 12/16/2024 at 3:30 AM, Prismshine Productions said:

Nah, we getting contact, but mere pedestrian infield groundouts with an occasional bunt single

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

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Up there, yes. I’m not sure 1.7” here when my climo is ~11” for December is real contact by this point in the month.

  On 12/16/2024 at 3:31 AM, CoastalWx said:

My point is that unlike recent Decembers that torched, we are -2 and still porked.

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Yeah. It sucks. 

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