Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that trend even if it’s east, is what we want. 

Fwiw, surface looked darn healthy.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024121518&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, surface looked darn healthy.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024121518&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

I need the primary so far north like I need a 3rd armpit.....

[ORH_wxman]

Just caught up on 12z stuff. Not the trend I wanted to see, but it wasn’t fatal IMHO. Kind of more status quo. Still decent spread looking at ensemble guidance. 
 

There’s a solid chance of a modest event. The PNA ridge is so damned tall that I don’t mind a little optimism still…as in I don’t think it’s completely unfounded. But I do think you need to see some better trends going forward. Status quo won’t really cut it if we’re aiming for more than a small event. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

I need the primary so far north like I need a 3rd armpit.....

Slp is actually a touch further south and west of 12z and that run dropped 8-9".

[brooklynwx99]

definitely more amplified with a better PNA. the TPV trying to tuck the trough is interesting 

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Fwiw, surface looked darn healthy.

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024121518&fh=120&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

Primary over Buffalo is a little concerning  though.  Wish this was a bit south. That would mean the secondary would have to get going quick.

[ineedsnow]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Primary over Buffalo is a little concerning  though.  Wish this was a bit south. That would mean the secondary would have to get going quick.

FWIW probably not much the ICON-EPS is interesting 

[Prismshine Productions]

Amazing how this went:

"We need the 20th s/w to die"

Said s/w dies

*Everybody happi*

Midweek gets amped

"Fu*k!"

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk

[Kitz Craver]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Primary over Buffalo is a little concerning  though.  Wish this was a bit south. That would mean the secondary would have to get going quick.

Primary over Buffalo will basically whiff southern regions

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Slp is actually a touch further south and west of 12z and that run dropped 8-9".

If that s/w on the icon is valid, I’d expect to see a low develop nicely. 

[Prismshine Productions]

GFS out to 87 is a slight improvement

[Prismshine Productions]

looks like the heights over our region are a tick higher out to 96

 

[Prismshine Productions]

slightly less amped ridge at 102... mannnnnnn

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, weathafella said:

I think normal high for 12/25 in most of NNE is already AOB freezing.

Exactly, mid 30’s is mild. Primeshine is still on SC weather. 

[Prismshine Productions]

1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Exactly, mid 30’s is mild. Primeshine is still on SC weather. 

ha, fair!

 

[dryslot]

Bu bye.

[CoastalWx]

Yep see ya. 

[vegan_edible]

yeah... 

on to 00Z:)

 

also isn't the 18z GFS run off the same set of data as 12z? so we shouldn't be TOO surprised this run sucked since well, 12z also sucked. 

we'll all be here at approximately 11:15pm. bring snacks 

[Go Kart Mozart]

A  lot of icon discussion here.  The icon last scored a coup when the Lions won their last Superbowl. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Wide right like a Bills field goal

[ineedsnow]

2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said:

A  lot of icon discussion here.  The icon last scored a coup when the Lions won their last Superbowl. 

its actually been pretty good lately 

[AstronomyEnjoyer]

Never a good sign when you have to use this view to properly see the storm in frame, oof. (18z GFS)

[Kitz Craver]

Cmon guys it’s not so bad, we definitely have some picnic table pics to look forward to for the 18-19 CNE/NNE event!

[ORH_wxman]

GFS southern stream is a big problem that you didn’t see on the icon run. Note around hour 102 on that southern stream vort. It’s still onshore on the GFS and it’s way offshore on the icon. 

[Damage In Tolland]

It’s going to snow. Just a matter of nailing down amounts 

[Prismshine Productions]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS southern stream is a big problem that you didn’t see on the icon run. Note around hour 102 on that southern stream vort. It’s still onshore on the GFS and it’s way offshore on the icon. 

the one over Florida?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

the one over Florida?

Correct. You can’t amplify a shortwave diving down when there’s a southern stream vort ahead of it keeping the downstream heights lower…it prevents the essential downstream ridging to occur in front of out main shortwave that is needed to create a coastal in this setup. So we either need to it speed up and get out of the way (ICON sort of showed this) or slow down enough to get captured by the northern stream. Otherwise you just get destructive interference. 

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s going to snow. Just a matter of when this winter it next happens.

FYP

[brooklynwx99]

wondering if you can get some coalescence of these two waves. it's close to a phase but they're too far apart verbatim

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

wondering if you can get some coalescence of these two waves. it's close to a phase but they're too far apart verbatim

Any animation capabilities?