Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[ineedsnow]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:53 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

GEFS got shunted really SE...

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ya because most are amped for the midweek deal

[Go Kart Mozart]

Tip's 576 line is in a much better space this run, but Geez, last night we had pronounced ridging pushing into eastern Greenland....today it's a deep low.  IMO the PNA ridging is not as impressive as it was depicted a few days ago.

[MJO812]

Uncle pretty far offshore 

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:53 PM, MJO812 said:

 

 

Now the gfs and cmc are mild for Christmas . Our climate sucks.

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if you call mid 30s mild...

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:54 PM, MJO812 said:

Usually follows the op but it might be over. Fast flow with a positive NAO.

Can't get lucky anymore 

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Oh Ya it’s over…no need to look at anything else now.  Check back in on Friday and see if anything changed?  Probably not though. 

[Prismshine Productions]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:57 PM, WinterWolf said:

Oh Ya it’s over…no need to look at anything else now.  Check back in on Friday and see if anything changed?  Probably not though. 

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classic "oh well we tried"

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:59 PM, Prismshine Productions said:

classic "oh well we tried"

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Yup.  

[40/70 Benchmark]

I feel like the high end potential is gone.

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like the high end potential is gone.

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See what the euro does, but yeah it’s not looking good at the moment.

[Damage In Tolland]

3-6 is fine and being planned on 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6 is fine and being planned on 

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Are you still digging out from your last call?

[Kitz Craver]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:06 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

3-6 is fine and being planned on 

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3-6 beers?

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:01 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like the high end potential is gone.

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Being we started eyeing this from a long way out…I don’t know if that idea was ever truly established..except for maybe in theory.  
 

I feel some type of wintry event is still a possibility sometime next weekend. Other than that, any other finer details are still too vague. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:10 PM, WinterWolf said:

Being we started eyeing this from a long way out…I don’t know if that idea was ever truly established..except for maybe in theory.  
 

I feel some type of wintry event is still a possibility sometime next weekend. Other than that, any other finer details are still too vague. 

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My bet is nothing ends up on the ground for most.

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:13 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My bet is nothing ends up on the ground for most.

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No doubt, that Could certainly be the case.
 

I’m thinking something small is a decent possibility from what we see/know currently.   In part, the Evolution of the Midweek system that isn’t known just yet, will play in to how other things ultimately evolve with this.  

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

  On 12/15/2024 at 4:57 PM, WinterWolf said:

Oh Ya it’s over…no need to look at anything else now.  Check back in on Friday and see if anything changed?  Probably not though. 

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What site do you use?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:09 PM, CoastalWx said:

Are you still digging out from your last call?

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The one where we had 8.5 and you had none?

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:10 PM, Kitz Craver said:

3-6 beers?

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It’s going to snow Saturday. That much we know. It looks like an advisory event away from coast 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:19 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

The one where we had 8.5 and you had none?

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The one last weekend that was a carbon copy according to you. 

[CoastalWx]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:20 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s going to snow Saturday. That much we know. It looks like an advisory event away from coast 

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Enjoy the accidents tomorrow. That’s probably it.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:23 PM, CoastalWx said:

The one last weekend that was a carbon copy according to you. 

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That was never supposed to be much 

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:23 PM, CoastalWx said:

Enjoy the accidents tomorrow. That’s probably it.

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Will bump when next weekend is snowy 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:17 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What site do you use?

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? 
 

I was busting Anthony for saying it’s over. 

[brooklynwx99]

more TPV involvement on ECMWF

[George001]

Yeah we aren’t getting 2 feet from this but it’s way too early to give up on a decent storm. We have gotten moderate events from worse setups. This isn’t far away from being something decent for us.

[ineedsnow]

meh Wednesday night amped  weekend  ots

[Sey-Mour Snow]

A widespread 1-3/3-6 would be awesome the weekend before Christmas with plenty of cold behind it for a few days. I’m not holding out any hopes though. Let’s see if we can weenie this into existence . 

[WinterWolf]

  On 12/15/2024 at 5:17 PM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

What site do you use?

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Use to have a subscription to WEATHERBELL for quite a few years, but dropped it a couple years back. Fee site…now…climate.cod  if that’s what you mean. 

[dryslot]

No good, Thursdays is screwing it up

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

It’s always something. At least we won’t waste the week and have the rug pulled Thursday.

Brutal stretch