Converged on a 12/21/2024 coastal storm, however ... much higher than normal uncertainty relative to very shortterm. May need nowcast for impacting east/SE regions

[CoastalWx]

The fact that nothing goes right between euro and gfs should tell you that it’s not a likely scenario for a bigger event.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

S/W digs but flow is very progressive and no time to pump up heights ahead of it. 

The wave on thurs being more amped didn't leave this one much room to pump up the heights ahead.

[Prismshine Productions]

well, at least it digged better...

[weathafella]

Just now, dryslot said:

Squashed south.

Always a gfs bias at this range.  I see 12z as a positive so far.

[dryslot]

Just now, weathafella said:

Always a gfs bias at this range.  I see 12z as a positive so far.

Thursday s/w killed its potential, But its there.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

The wave on thurs being more amped didn't leave this one much room to pump up the heights ahead.

See my earlier quote lol.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

See my earlier quote lol.

Ha ha, Yeah, That's what you were referring too.

[WinterWolf]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

The fact that nothing goes right between euro and gfs should tell you that it’s not a likely scenario for a bigger event.

We’ll gladly take a smaller event…let’s get a few inches, and run.

 

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Always a gfs bias at this range.  I see 12z as a positive so far.

Yes.  

[Prismshine Productions]

well, look at the bright side, there was some improvement if the leading wave deamplifies a bit

 

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Always a gfs bias at this range.  I see 12z as a positive so far.

I think so too.  Just another solution at this point, as we go through the model cinema. 

[SouthCoastMA]

inject that onshore flow on 21st into my veins, even with the GFS miss

[eduggs]

The wrapped up solutions that deepen and cut off near out latitude have multiple northern stream shortwaves phasing. The 12z ICON has a piece of energy giving south from Ontario late in the game. A well timed interaction between shortwaves will lead to rapid tilting and deepening of the ULL. But if it isn't well timed, the result will be a clipper or squashed system.

[ineedsnow]

ill take this for Wednesday night .. Gfs is more amped and further north so we rain.. a flatter solution would help with both storms here

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, eduggs said:

The wrapped up solutions that deepen and cut off near out latitude have multiple northern stream shortwaves phasing. The 12z ICON has a piece of energy giving south from Ontario late in the game. A well timed interaction between shortwaves will lead to rapid tilting and deepening of the ULL. But if it isn't well timed, the result will be a clipper or squashed system.

Lots of moving parts…this will take time to figure out. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lots of moving parts…this will take time to figure out. 

heck we need to get wednesday out the way first before we can really figure this one out

 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lots of moving parts…this will take time to figure out. 

Yeah. The ensemble spread reflects the uncertainty. But with the improvements to mid-range models, we probably only have another 24 hours to see improvements before the approx. final outcome starts to be resolved. I don't like the trends over the past few days towards a faster progressing, lower amplitude trof. And there are fewer and fewer deep individual members on the ensembles.

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

heck we need to get wednesday out the way first before we can really figure this one out

 

Yes, this is my point.  This has a long way to go.  

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yeah. The ensemble spread reflects the uncertainty. But with the improvements to mid-range models, we probably only have another 24 hours to see improvements before the approx. final outcome starts to be resolved. I don't like the trends over the past few days towards a faster progressing, lower amplitude trof. And there are fewer and fewer deep individual members on the ensembles.

Improvements in mid range modeling?  You probably know more than me, but I haven’t seen too many improvements the last couple years in that regard.   

[eduggs]

The largescale features are supportive of a wintry event around the 21st as everybody has been saying for days. But unlike with the recent and upcoming rain events with single waves traversing W to E, the synoptic details of the weekend event and the angle of trof approach require excellent timing with wave interaction. That factor would seem to make a positive outcome unlikely. By memory it seems like these tend to work out best for eastern NE.

[Prismshine Productions]

The largescale features are supportive of a wintry event around the 21st as everybody has been saying for days. But unlike with the recent and upcoming rain events with single waves traversing W to E, the synoptic details of the weekend event and the angle of trof approach require excellent timing with wave interaction. That factor would seem to make a positive outcome unlikely. By memory it seems like these tend to work out best for eastern NE.

Realistically I think most of us just want snow on the ground for Christmas

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[Damage In Tolland]

Whatever snow falls is wiped out in time for Xmas 

[Prismshine Productions]

Whatever snow falls is wiped out in time for Xmas 

You think it melts before then?

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[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whatever snow falls is wiped out in time for Xmas 

That’s if you believe the GFS.  

[Prismshine Productions]

That’s if you believe the GFS.  

GFS was actually cold up through Christmas

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[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

GFS was actually cold up through Christmas

Sent from my SM-S146VL using Tapatalk
 

This run I guess it wasn’t lol….lots of continuity there too(not).  OP runs gonna Op run.  

[Prismshine Productions]

GEFS got shunted really SE...

[MJO812]

 

 

Now the gfs and cmc are mild for Christmas . Our climate sucks.

[CoastalWx]

The GEFS are well offshore too. Canadian tried for a Ray favorite, inv trough. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

16 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't love the strength of that primary so far NW.

 

4 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro has a strong s/w with a stronger parent low initially, but that leads to a nipple low into SNE. Need to see the parent low weaker and dig this a bit more south. 
 

GFS is weaker, but doesn’t get going until well offshore. Energy is more disjointed on GFS.

Valid concern...March '23ed

[MJO812]

Just now, Prismshine Productions said:

GEFS got shunted really SE...

Usually follows the op but it might be over. Fast flow with a positive NAO.

Can't get lucky anymore